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[揽瓜阁精读] 34. Income mobility cox

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41#
发表于 2022-7-5 21:32:09 | 只看该作者
l Fuss about income inequality.
         -Most American are on the fast track to affluence
l 5 percent of As in the bottom fifth in 1975 were still there.
l 29 percent of them end up in top fifth
        -opportunity matters most
l The cox-alm study is making big waves among the political right
        -after a ringing endorsement of the wall street journal, conservative impatient with hand-writing over the alleged plight of the young and immobile
l New research is not confidence-building. Cox and alm ask the wrong question, argue by PG
l Standard measures amount to snapshots  
         -the variations between top and bottom have been reported.
         -liberals and conservatives agree that mobility matters
         -lifetime income is distributed far more equally
l Cox-alm study is in this tradition.
        -poverty in the 1975 snapshot was no impediment to future success.
l Mr. Gottschalk, notes that the dallas use means to reach these ends.
        -they measure income earned by individuals, rather than assigning individuals share of family income.
        -As a result, the average earnings of the bottom fifth in 1975 far less than anyone could live on.
l The one worked only briefly in 1975. G guess most of them were workers with marginal links to the labor force.
l 16 years later their average incomes had risen.
         -G, this suggests that all the former students in the sample had full-time jobs in 1911, as did most of the mothers.
l Mr. G says by tracking individuals over time the Cox-Alm study mingles the impact of economic mobility with gains to accumulating work experience. We have long known that mobility partially offsets the impact of inequality. Unclear how much
l NBER, estimated average family incomes over a four-year period reduced by one-fourth.  
l The rate of economic mobility had fallen since 1980
l More try to figure out what to do with the losers.

42#
发表于 2022-7-6 07:13:26 | 只看该作者
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43#
发表于 2022-7-6 10:38:11 | 只看该作者
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44#
发表于 2022-7-6 12:39:17 发自手机 Web 版 | 只看该作者
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45#
发表于 2022-7-6 15:26:07 | 只看该作者
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46#
发表于 2022-7-6 16:38:45 | 只看该作者
【新理论】收入不平等很正常,富的越富,穷的一如既往的稳定。但是根据cox 和alm的研究,只要努力奋斗,就在致富之路上。这俩人发现只有5%的样本,他们在16年前在收入底层,16年后依然在收入底层。而29%的人实现了阶级的跨越。他们认为,机会和公平之间,机会更加重要。
他们的说法make big vaves。但是这个新的研究却不是那么站得住脚。确实,即使是随便的一分析就能发现有不少事情不对。Cox和alm提出了错误的问题并且给这个错误的问题作出了错误的回答。
【反对】对收入分配的标准测量方法是时代的缩影。上层和下层收入逐渐扩大的差距是焦虑的原因。但是文学家和保守派都同意社会流动性也很重要。
Cox-alm的实验,gottshalk指出了这个实验的误区。Gottshalk指出cox他们混淆了社会阶层流动和通过工作经验增加实现的收入。Cox-alm的实验误区在于他们找了一帮学生或者家庭主妇作为样本,但是正常情况下16后这帮人都会拥有一份更好的fulltime job,所以收入大幅增长也是正常的。 Gottshalk提出社会阶层流动性可以抵消部分不公平性的影响,但是不知道能抵消多少。有个回答就是平均一下四年的家庭收入能高减少4分之一的不公平性。但是经济流动自从1980年开始也降低了。
【总结】不要抓住纠结到底发生啥了,研究一下怎么为loser们做点儿事才是应该的。

Hand-wringing 绝望的
Plight 困境 誓约
Amiss adj 有毛病的,有缺陷的 adv 有差错的
Snapshot:n 快照,快相,简单印象 v 拍快照
Disquiet 担心 不安 焦虑 v 使担心,使焦虑  adj 担心的 焦虑的
47#
发表于 2022-7-7 01:19:16 | 只看该作者
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48#
发表于 2022-7-7 02:11:52 | 只看该作者
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49#
发表于 2022-7-7 10:18:20 | 只看该作者
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50#
发表于 2022-7-7 10:18:49 | 只看该作者
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