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[揽瓜阁精读] 43. 金融共振桥

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121#
发表于 2022-11-1 23:38:05 | 只看该作者
P1:介绍桥体随行人步伐共振
P2:类比桥和金融市场中的市场崩溃
行人-银行
桥的共振-price changes
本来是维护秩序,现在所有elements都使得金融市场不稳定
P3:金融市场崩溃实例-Great Crunch
P4:部分学说解释原因-greed-容易解决
实际原因-经济内在逻辑,rational irrationality(个人正常,放到market里造成混乱)
122#
发表于 2022-11-2 11:07:18 | 只看该作者

43. 金融共振桥
1. 解释原理:真实情况的桥和行人,引出“synchronous lateral excitation”
2. 类比:金融市场,介绍特点:unanimity。一旦有crisis,biggest player 撤资,买方消失,清算归零。之前有不同的views,现在步调一致。,self-reinforcing之前维持稳定的因素现在conspire to undermine - unstable
3. 具体的例子: subprime- mortgage bonds 次贷危机,
4. 很多explanations 认为是..greed,overconfidence,downright stupidity。作者认为,如果真是这些原因,我们还能稍微放点心,因为这些因素都可控。真正的原因more scarier,更不容易reform。-inner. Logic of an economy “rational irrationality”-个人层面reasonable,aggregated in marketplace - calamity
123#
发表于 2022-11-2 14:01:53 | 只看该作者
主旨:介绍一种金融现象,并分析该现象出现的理由
第一段:介绍桥与行人的共振现象
第二段:桥与行人的共振现象类比到金融界
第三段:举例2007年次级抵押贷款市场发生的危机来解释金融共振
第四段:分析出现金融共振的原因
大意
一些评论家怀疑桥的地基,另一些评论家则怀疑是一个不同寻常的空气模型。真正的问题是桥的设计者没有考虑到桥会对行走在桥上的人作出反应。当一个人走着,每一只脚依次提起和落下,都会产生轻微的侧力。如果上百个人在狭小的空间里行走,有些人碰巧步调一致,他们会产生足够的侧力移动这座桥。一旦这个桥开始摇晃,即使是轻微的,都会有越来越多的行人调整步伐达到同步。当桥的摆动和行人的步伐形成正向反馈,侧力将会急剧增大,桥会剧烈摇晃。工程师称之为“同步侧面激励”
大多数时候,金融市场是平静的,贸易是有序的,参与者可以进行大量的买卖。然而,当危机到来时,最大的玩家们——银行,投资银行,对冲基金——为了减少风险敞口,买家消失,现金流枯竭。之前还各持己见,到这时全员一致。桥上的行人就像这些银行,桥的摇晃就像价格变动。一旦现金流讲到某个门槛以下,所有曾经促进稳定形成良性循环的要素现如今会共同破坏稳定。金融市场会变得非常不稳定
这发生在经济大紧缩之前,导火索是次级抵押贷款债券市场——这些债券需要贫困和中等收入的购房者提供的贷款池每月支付资金。在2007年8月,房价下跌,抵押贷款的违约上升,次级抵押贷款市场冻结。这本不应该造成太多问题;未支付的次级抵押贷款的总存量为一万亿美元,这与12万亿总未支付的抵押贷款相比相形见绌,更不用说18万亿的股票市场价值。但这些银行,无法估计其他公司的的亏损,因此削减信贷额度和囤积资本。当欧洲央行向金融体系中注入更多资金时立刻避免了崩溃。全球经济危机直到今年初才有所缓解,目前政府已经向这个系统中投入九万亿的美元。
对于大繁荣和大萧条,人们提出了很多解释,大部分都集中在了抵押贷款人、投资银行家或华尔街CEO的贪婪、自负和彻头彻尾的愚蠢上。贪婪是可以控制的,当然会有一些困难;自负是可以被挫伤的;甚至愚蠢的人也可以被教育。不幸的是,真正造成危机的原因要更加的可怕,更加的难以改变:这与经济中的内在逻辑有关。根本问题我们称之为“理性的非理性”行为,从个人角度来说时
124#
发表于 2022-11-2 15:24:24 | 只看该作者
43.

p1:人们在桥上行走得多了会导致桥产生形变,这时人越走形变越多,渐渐桥就会有非常大的变形,被工程师们称为SLE同步侧向激励。

p2:把金融市场类比桥梁,如果有危机,银行债券公司等就会尽量减少交易,此时所有人步调一致,到了一定程度后会形成恶性循环,金融市场会极其不稳定。

p3:举例GC,起因是房价下跌导致sp债券市场冻结。本应该没什么广泛影响,但银行因此做了大动作,导致金融巨震,为了救市政府出了9trillion。

p4:对于此事有很多解释,但是如果是那么轻松就好了,但实际上情况更可怕,和我们经济的内在逻辑有关,也就是理智地不理智,如果是个人行为也没什么,但如果是集合性的就会导致大灾难。
125#
发表于 2022-11-2 22:46:59 | 只看该作者
43. 金融共振桥

P1:说了共振桥的原理:一些评论家觉得桥的基础有问题。但其实根本问题是设计桥的人没有考虑行人行走会给桥带来的影响。人走在桥上的时候,会对桥产生影响,让桥发生移动(即使很小很小)。 桥一旦发生摇摆的话,行人就会调整步态来适应。桥的移动和行人的迈步之间会形成一个正向循环,这种间接力量可能会使得桥突然倾斜。工程师把这个过程叫做:同步单向刺激

P2:引申到金融市场:正常情况下,金融市场是理性的;但在危机来临时,银行、投行、对冲基金急忙的降低头寸,使得市场流动性变低。桥上的人就像银行,桥本身的移动就像市场价格的变动。而且这种过程是自我强化的。

P3:举例子,08年次贷危机:说次级贷款市场只是一小部分,原本没啥的,后来银行无法估计损失,于是就提高信用标准来回笼资金,进而导致了崩溃。尽管欧洲银行和美联储投入资金进入金融市场,但是这场危机直到今年才缓和,而此时政府已经投入了9trillion了。

P4:总结原因:贪婪、过度自信、愚蠢。如果这么简单就好了,因为贪婪可以受到限制,过度自信会受到惩罚,愚蠢可以受到教育。但不幸的是,真正的原因没那么简单:理性的非理性:在危机时,每一个个体都是理性的,但是加在一起作为一个整体就会导致灾难。
126#
发表于 2022-11-4 12:20:30 | 只看该作者
P1:介紹橋的共振原理
路人行走—>步調一致—>橋開始晃—>路人同步調整腳步—>橋劇烈傾斜:SLE現象

P2:將共振原理帶入金融
-當災難來臨,銀行.投行.對衝基金退場—>買家消失+資產變現力乾涸,各家想法一致就像橋上路人的腳步,橋本身就像價格變化。
-S:過程是自我鞏固的,一但資產變現率降到某個點,所有構成良性循環的元素皆會摧毀它
-金融市場將高度不穩

P3:舉個例子(2007次貸危機)
-次貸危機就是一個?
-次貸本身不該造成如此大的波動,因為次貸市場就一萬億,整個貸款市場12億。不過銀行不能估計損失,因此鎖緊以囤積資產,然後所有的銀行都開始這樣做,證實了S的觀點(market imposing uniformity)
-立即崩塌之所以能夠避免是因歐洲央行&美聯儲介入,不過直到今天危機才緩解,政府已經使用9億來支撐體系。

P4:探討次貸危機的原因
-有人說因為放款人,銀行,華爾街CEO愚昧無知過度自信,不過若真如此還好一點,因為貪心可以被控制,愚昧可以被教育。
-恐怕真正的原因是“理智的不理智’,運作在個人身上非常合理,但聚集在市場,會產生災難。
127#
发表于 2022-11-4 16:22:04 | 只看该作者
1
主要是类比-介绍一下桥共振的原因,所有人在桥上一起走动会给桥带来一定动乱,一旦桥身开始晃,所有人开始调整步伐,开始同步,结果桥会晃的更厉害。
2介绍了金融市场一般都是很冷静的。但是一旦出现危机,投行、基金等会为了降低风险立刻行动。正如桥的共振一样,金融市场也会变得及其不稳定。
3不稳定的典例:07年的次贷危机,最终因为欧洲central bank和联邦决定投更多钱才缓和immediate collapse
4是讨论了一下出现该情况的原因。不是因为个人原因,这些都是可以调整的 真正的原因是经济的内部逻辑就和桥共振的原理一致。根本原因是理性的非理性,一个人做某件事情时是很合理的,但是群体做这件事情就会产生大灾难
128#
发表于 2022-11-4 18:08:51 | 只看该作者
P1:先用桥共振的例子来引出下文关于金融危机产生的机制。刚开始只是一个微小的改变,然后大家都会跟着这个改变调整成一样的,最终汇聚成了很大的改变,导致严重结果。
P2:金融危机的产生就类似第一段提出的那种机制。金融市场受到冲击时,大玩家如银行、共同基金等会减少交易,导致价格产生波动,然后这个趋势自我加强,导致金融市场的不稳定性。
P3:具体的金融危机例子。08年金融危机的爆发
P4:有很多关于这个危机的解释,大多数都关注在贷款借出者的贪婪、过度自信、无知上。但是,这些都不是真正的原因。真正的本质原因时经济的内部逻辑,术语是“rational irrationality”:个体层面上是理性的,但是当整个市场都这样的时候就会导致灾难。
129#
发表于 2022-11-5 17:06:49 | 只看该作者
1通过大桥载荷的例子,说明介绍背景理论synchronous lateral excitation
2将大桥载荷的例子应用于金融市场波动:一旦流动性降低到一定水平,所有形成金融市场稳定的因素会反过来破坏它
3描述金融市场大危机的现象,对次级抵押贷款债券市场和银行的影响以及央行控制的办法
4金融危机有很多原因,但最不幸的是实际上金融危机的根本原因很难通过改革控制,根本问题是非理性行为集中在市场会引发灾难
130#
发表于 2022-11-5 21:45:04 | 只看该作者
P1
一开始就不讲人话:
Some commentators suspected the bridge's foundations, other commentators suspected an unusual air pattern. 这叫什么这叫压力测试,一上来给你来个读不懂的省略给你淦蒙蔽,但其实你读不懂这句话也没有关系,因为不是真正原因
但桥会摇摇晃摇的的真正原因是设计者一开始没有考虑到这群可爱的碳基生物走在桥上时对桥的影响:
人走路,脚的来回抬放会产生一个向侧面的力sideways force,当有几百个人同时走在一个狭窄的空间里,刚好(happen to)又步伐一致时,每个单独的sideways force合在一起产生的enough lateral momentum足以使得桥移动(可以移动嗷,但不多)
一旦桥开始移动,人会调整自己的步伐,这样的正反馈循环会导致桥剧烈倾斜
本段主要内容是阐述了桥为什么会倾斜的原因,阐述了人桥相互影响的机制(要不是为了巩固生词?才不会这样逐字逐句翻译)
P2
为什么突然讲金融市场,因为第一段的作用就是为了类比
金融市场一般都是冷静有秩序的,但一旦危机开始,大玩家们开始急剧抛售手中份额时,市场处于恐慌中,就无人买了
之前风平浪静的时候,大家还持有不同看法,危机一来,大家反而趋同(不知道是否说的大家一起抛售,起码不会出现新买家)
之前造成正循环的因素限制在危急之下都会进一步造成市场不稳定
P3
这便是次贷款危机之前的模样
介绍次贷危机的原因:次贷
07年8月的房价下跌和违约上升导致的次贷冻结按理来说并不会捅如此之大的窟窿,对比了次贷市场和贷款市场及整个大市场的份额,就是个弟弟
为什么结局如此惨烈:大玩家银行pull back credit lines and hoard their capital,导致市场流动性大幅下降
一直到央行出手及政府砸钱救市,才稍微有所好转

P4
一些现有理论试图从人性弱点如贪痴慢来解释经济的上下浮动,作者表示如果事情真的如此简单就好了,人性弱点可以纠正,但真正的原因令人头秃,难搞
如同桥上的那群人,大玩家根据市场的波动调整自己步伐(rational irrationality:不可估量的未来,是去赌大家都和哥们一样rational还是为了保全自身减少exposure呢)时确实也没有想到会导致整个市场都从众从而使得桥都倾斜
"一个人做某件事情时是很合理的,但是群体做这件事情就会产生灾难"
大家都在危机前选择明哲保身时,then整个市场 is going to fk up 芜

footway
a passage or path intended for people to walk along
n. 人行道;小路
sideway
n. 人行道;小路
sideways
in a direction to the left or right, not forwards or backwards 侧向地The fence is leaning sideways. 栅栏向一边倾斜
If you’d move sideways I could see better.
If you would move sideways to the left, I can get everyone in the picture.
When a person walks, lifting and dropping each foot in turn, he or she produces a slight sideways force
footbridge
人行桥: a narrow bridge that is only used by people who are walking=DISPIMG("ID_73C7421DE24D9713D95866638C75372D",1)
sway
1. swing 同义词:to move slowly from side to side
2. persuade: to persuade someone to believe or do one thing rather than another
3. noun. control or influence
1. The sailboat swayed on the stormy sea. 帆船在暴风雨的海面上摇晃
2. Her speech failed to sway her colleagues into supporting the plan.
3.
One's complete sway. 独霸
Keynes proposed bancor just after sterling lost its sway. 就在英镑失去影响力之后,凯恩斯提出了bancor
We are often swayed by sentiment. 我们经常受感情的支配
They cannot afford to be swayed by swings in stocks. 「做空」他们承受不起股市波动的影响
gait
n. 步法,步态
a person's manner of walking
He walked with a rolling gait. 他摇摇晃晃地走着
He moves with the slow confident gait of a successful man
His easy gait shows self-confidence.
loop
圈, 环, 环状物
回路,循环
postive-feedback loop = virtuous circle
It's got you, brother. you're in your own loop.
你已经被它控制了 哥儿们 你已经跳进你自己的死循环里了
in synch
in sync 同时(in synchronization)
in sync with 与……同步
So in sync 是如此的一致; 很一致; 举手投足很合拍
stride
1. an important positive development
2. to walk somewhere quickly with long steps
1.
· The West made impressive strides in improving energy efficiency after the huge rises in oil prices during the 70s.
· The group has made strides to expand internationally.
· Tom has made enormous strides at school this year.
2.
· She strode purposefully up to the desk and demanded to speak to the manager.
· He strode across/into/out of the room.
· He walked with a stride full of purpose. 他迈着坚定的步伐向前走
swing
1.
verb. to move easily and without interruption backwards and forwards or from one side to the other
to change, or make a situation, price, opinion, etc. change in a noticeable way
noun. a big and sudden change in a situation, price, opinion
2. 秋千
The value of the pound swung downwards. 英镑的价值突然下跌
His mood swings between elation and despair.
lateral
1. 侧面的
2. 横向的
lateral movement 横向运动
dry up
If a supply of something dries up, it ends
to no longer exist or be available
His main source of work had dried up, leaving him short of money.
Funding has begun to dry up. 资金开始枯竭
unanimity
全体一致的; 一致同意的; 无异议的He was elected by a unanimous vote. 他以全票中选
The members were unanimous in approving the project.
lockstep
1.  in lockstep (with sb/sth) = at the same time and same rate as:
rise/fall/move in lockstep
2. agreeing completely with someone:
The Senator seems to be in lockstep with the big health insurance companies.
1.  
· Gold prices don't tend to rise or fall in lockstep with those for stocks and other financial assets.
· Cryptocurrencies once looked like an interesting hedge, but this year they have fallen and risen in lockstep with stocks.加密货币曾经看起来像是一种有趣的对冲,但今年它们的涨跌与股市同步。
virtuous circle
良性循环
对应vicious circle
dwarfed
1. 小矮人
2. If one thing dwarfs another, it makes it seem small by comparison
The new skyscraper will dwarf all those near it.
This new crisis may well dwarf most that have gone before.
Shakespeare dwarfs other dramatists. 莎士比亚使其他剧作家相形见绌
hoard
A financial crisis can cause people to hoard.
When oil prices rise, the tendency to hoard gold also rises.
the market imposing uniformity
impose 强加
prop up
支撑;支持
prop something up
to help an organization, system, etc. that is having trouble, often by giving financial help:
bust
go bust
If a company goes bust, it is forced to close because it is financially unsuccessful

a period of slow economic activity and lack of growth
More than 20 companies in the district went bust during the last three months.
Each of the previous booms in real house prices was followed by a bust.
boom and bust
经济繁荣与萧条的交替循环This process of booms and busts is called the business cycle.
这种繁荣、萧条的过程被称为经济周期
an industry that is notoriously prone to cycles of boom and bust.
downright stupidity
extremely or very greatThe working conditions are unhealthy, if not downright (= and probably extremely) dangerous.
He wasn’t just impolite—he was downright rude.
His evidence was a blend of smears, half truths and downright lies.
amenable
1. willing to accept or be influenced by a suggestion
2. 经得起检验的
3. 有责任的,应服从的
· She might be more amenable to the idea if you explained how much money it would save.
· She’ll be amenable to any sensible suggestions. 任何合理的建议她都会接受的
· He is amenable to reason. 他通情达理
· Unfortunately, the real causes of the crisis are much scarier and less amenable to reform

2. His scientific discoveries are amenable to the laws of physics.

3. People living in a country are amenable to its laws.
ailing
experiencing difficulty and problemsShould the Central Bank intervene to prop up the ailing euro, or wait for a natural recovery?
the country's ailing economy
Ted asked me if I could help him fix his ailing car.
The poor is ailing from inflation.
smear
1. to spread a liquid or a thick substance over a surface
2. n. & v. 诽谤
1.  
The children had smeared peanut butter all over the sofa.
Can you explain why the front of your car is smeared with blood?
2. The prime minister has dismissed the allegations as smears
lurch
to move in a way that is not regular or normal, especially making sudden movements backwards or forwards or from side to side 突然倾斜The train lurched forward and some of the people standing fell over.
She just lurches from one bad relationship to another.
The truck gave a sudden lurch as it was hit by a strong gust of wind.
The party's lurch (= sudden change) to the left will lose it a lot of support.
Stuart lurched to his feet. 斯图尔特摇摇晃晃站了起来
The drunken man lurched along. 那个醉汉蹒跚而行
gust
1. n. a sudden strong wind
2. to blow strongly
adj. gusty
A sudden gust of wind blew his umbrella inside out
figurative She could hear gusts of laughter (= sudden, loud laughter) from within the room.
A gust of happiness swept through her.
2. Winds gusting to 50 mph brought down power lines.
sweep
1. to clean something, especially a floor by using a brush to collect the dirt into one place from which it can be removed
2. to move, especially quickly and powerfully
3. to remove and/or take in a particular direction, especially in a fast and powerful way
4. a movement, especially a quick, powerful one or one to search an area
5. a situation in which one player, team, etc. wins everything that is available:
1. When I arrived he was sweeping the leaves from the driveway.
2. The fire swept (= spread quickly) through the house.
3.  
· Government troops swept aside the rebel forces (= caused them to move away from the area in which they were).
· A large wave swept away half the sandcastle.
· She swept the pile of papers and books into her bag.
4. With a sweep (= horizontal movement) of its tail, the alligator knocked her under the water.
5. Romania made a clean sweep of the medals.
exposure
1. the state of possibly being affected by something such as a substance or influence 2. Financial:  
· the risk of losing money, for example through a loan or investment, or the amount of money that might be lost
· the act of investing in something
3. marketing:曝光
1.  
· But with chronic stress exposure, problems arise.  
· exposure to sth The city's youths need more exposure to positive role models.
2.  
The bank had relatively little exposure to subprime mortgages, which are issued to people with weak credit histories.
If they do walk away from the deal their total exposure is around £40 million.
Her clients wanted more exposure to the energy and real estate sectors.
3. the amount of public attention that someone or something, especially an advertisement or product, receives:
The overall winner is guaranteed lots of media exposure.
get/gain exposure The product is being advertised to bloggers with the hope of getting more exposure.
happen to
碰巧,刚好If hundreds of people are walking in a confined space, and some happen to walk in step, they can generate enough lateral momentum to move a footbridge- just a little.
I happened to be in the area. 我是碰巧的专家
lead up to something
if a period of time or series of events leads up to an event or activity, it happens until that event or activity begins:This is essentially what happened in the lead-up to the Great Crunch

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