GWD-10-40 搜索过了，但是不服气

mrsyue

Q40:
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increases in the price of cotton on the world market.  By contrast, the price of soybeans  has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean  growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and begin raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?

A. The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several years and is expected to continue to climb.

B.   Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.

C.   In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.

D. Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.

E.   The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.

答案B, 我选C.

If cotton demand is unlikely to increase sharply, yet there comes a sharp rise in the number of cotton growers (i.e. cotton supply), it is likely that the price of cotton will drop, weakening the argument.

In B however, the new pesticide is only likely to enhance the growers' success because it helps them against cotton insects. It half supports the argument.

大家怎么想呢？

Iawfy

I think it's B

because of the inexpensive pesticide, the cost of cotton supply goew down, therefor, supply goes up. same demand, more supply, the price goes down.

lawyer_1

C 错在它讲的是过去几年的情况，结论是讲以后几年的情况，不同。

sunday_zhou

B应该是答案。"虫害导致cotton price increase，然后......"，如果能制止虫害则没有以后的推论了。B正是隐含着这个条件。

当时我也在B和C之间徘徊过，但正如lawyer所说的，当我看到C说是past several years时，就肯定的把它踢开了。

mrsyue

看来看去，还是大家说的有道理。

Maggiewjy

insect infestation -----high price of cotton . ( causal relationship)

c refers to the condition of the past years ,however no evidence offered in the future. therefore is not appropriate.

ah_eric

C还有个错误在于即使其所说的DEMAND没变，但是价格仍然要受SUPPLY的影响，题目中的前提就是COTTON受虫害而导致了Supply下降，使得价格上升

华籍美人

C错误的原因我觉得其实就是我们习惯于根据常识而加入自己的主观意识来判断问题，而不是紧紧围绕题目客观的判断。

只要需求不上升，价格就不会上升，实际上这个一般规律的东西在本文并没有出现，本文没有说demand results to the rising of the price呀！当然是无关的了。

barmecide

过去的Demand没有大幅增加与以后又有什么关系呢，也许从现在开始就增加了呢？

WalkByFaith

why not D?