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【速度】 Apple's latest iPad The third coming 【计时1】 APPLE used to be coy about its upcoming products. No longer. The press invitation to today's unveiling of its latest iPad tablet computer depicted a finger pressing a high-resolution touch-screen with the label: "We have something you really have to see. And touch." In the event, perhaps the biggest surprise to come out of the presentation by Apple's boss, Tim Cook, was that the company is calling the device just "iPad" and not, as had been expected "iPad 3". To be sure, the svelte gizmo sports a plethora of improvements over its numbered predecessor, the iPad 2. Its new "Retina Display" boasts four times as many pixels, close to the limit of human perception, and its four-core graphics processor makes the experience of what was already the smoothest tablet smoother still. Lower-resolution apps, such as those developed for earlier iPads, still look sharp on the new device (each old pixel is translated into four new ones), something rival Android devices, which come in a variety of shapes and sizes, struggle with. It also has a better, 5-megapixel camera. But these changes had been much anticipated in the blogosphere's techier quarters. There was a bit more uncertainty about fourth-generation (4G) mobile connectivity. Here, Apple seems to have dealt with several bugbears of Long Term Evolution (LTE), an increasingly ubiquitous 4G standard capable of faster download rates and more consistent reception. LTE smartphones are often ungainly due to the hefty electronics needed to support it. Apple, famous for its sleek design, could have none of that. The iPad's already ample battery has been tweaked so that it matches the ten hours in 3G mode of older models, and lasts fully nine hours with LTE on, while feeding a power-hungrier display. That marks a significant improvement over the smaller LTE devices currently on the market, some of which last only a few hours. 【310】 【计时2】 Apple used its buying power and dominant position in the tablet market to hit competitors like Microsoft, whose partners are preparing to launch an array of Windows 8 Metro slates later this year. The new iPad prices haven't budged. They start at $499 for a 16-gigabyte Wi-Fi only unit and finish at $829 for a 4G tablet with 64 gigabytes of flash storage. At the same time, Apple is keeping the older iPad 2 on the market for $399 with Wi-Fi and $529 with 3G. Other firms had already been hard-pressed to meet Apple's price, battery life and hardware features, let alone its swish operating system, copious media catalogues and the internet's biggest app store. With an upgrade at the top of the line and a drop in price for the current bestselling model, the iPad is unlikely to be dethroned any time soon. Apple has every reason to blow its own trumpet.
Greece Still Short of Reaching Debt Write-Off Goal Greece is edging closer to its goal of getting the country's private lenders to eliminate $142 billion of the money it owes them, but remained short of the target as a Thursday deadline neared.
The Athens government says it needs the banks, pension funds and other financial institutions holding at least two-thirds of the country's private debt to agree to the write-down. But by Wednesday, agreements had only been reached covering 46 percent of the debt. 【237】 【计时3】 The debt write-down is part of Greece's effort to secure a new $172-billion bailout and avoid a default on its financial obligations.
Five small Greek pension funds holding about one percent of the bonds eligible for the write-down have rejected the deal, as have several investment funds and Germany's best-selling newspaper, Bild. Greece says that if it hits the two-thirds threshold for the reduction, it could seek to force the deal on its remaining creditors. One German investment trader, Andreas Lipkow, said he thinks that in the end, Greece will be able to cut enough of its debt.
"Yes there would legally be a default if the quota [of the Greek bond swap] will not be high enough, but I think that the pressure is high enough so that quota will be reached," said Lipkow. "I don't really see any repercussions for the international markets by a default by Greece as that is already anticipated by the markets. The ratings agencies have already reacted and downgraded the bonds, interesting for the markets would be mandatory CDS [Credit Default Swaps insurance] payoff, as that would become very expensive for some market participants." 【191】 【计时4】 South Africa Protesters March Against Tolls Roads, Labor Brokering
Tens of thousands of people in South Africa took part in protests Wednesday against so-called e-tolling on highways and to demand that labor brokers be outlawed. The protests were called by the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions, or COSATU, and have impacted transport as well as schools and health facilities.
COSATU has been at the forefront of a demand made by many organizations that the Gauteng provincial government abandon a plan to introduce an e-tolling system on highways. Zwelinzima Vavi, COSATU general secretary said earlier this week motorists should refuse to pay the tolls.
"We will be encouraging motorists to drive through the tolls without paying," said Vavi.
The new system will make use of structures positioned over the highways armed with cameras and electronic reading devices. Motorists can purchase discounted toll fees in advance, loaded onto electronic tags, and the fees will be automatically deducted as they pass under the structure. If they fail to do so, their vehicle registration number will be noted, and they will receive a bill in the mail.
Similar tolling systems are also expected to be introduced in other provinces. Last month, in response to protests against the tolls, the finance minister announced the government would subsidize the cost of the $2.5-billion operating system by $725 million. But this did not appease COSATU. 【221】 【计时5】 The system is defended by Professor Roelof Botha of the Gordon Institute of Business Science. He says a study he did indicated that the tolling system would benefit road users because of less traffic congestion and save both time and money. He also said that contrary to many people's perceptions, the tolls will not add to the financial burden of the poor, because public transport vehicles will be exempt, and 94 percent of the tolls will be paid by the wealthiest users.
COSATU is also demanding that the government outlaw labor brokers -- people who employ workers, hire them out to companies, then take a cut of the employees' wages. The unions say the brokers undermine the government’s policy of decent work because many workers have no security of tenure and do not receive heath care and pension benefits. They are also not members of trade unions.
A female protester told the eNews Channel that she has worked for a labor broker for 10 years, and that her salary is so low she finds it difficult to feed her children.
"I am here because I am working for labor brokers for 10 years, and I have children going to school and this money is not [enough] because I can’t buy for, because I [am paid] only R300 [$40] a week in post office, so I can’t [manage]," she said.
Labor brokers became common in the 1990s when stringent new labor laws greatly increased the red-tape involved in hiring and firing workers. The new laws particularly affected small- and medium-sized businesses, which found the complex red tape required to manage personnel increasingly time-consuming and costly.
The government proposes to regulate labor brokers, to ensure that people employed by brokers have fair and equitable conditions of employment. 【295】
【越障】 Why China Should Slow Down – But Probably Won’t
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao sent a shockwave through the global economy this week when he lowered the country’s GDP growth target for 2012, to 7.5% from 8%. In doing so, Wen was not only recognizing the tremendous headwinds China is facing from an uncertain global economy. He was also acknowledging that China needs to alter its growth model if the country’s economic miracle is to continue. Here are some comments from his Monday address, courtesy of state-news agency Xinhua: “Here I wish to stress that in setting a slightly lower GDP growth rate, we hope to make it fit with targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan, and to guide people in all sectors to focus their work on accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development and making economic development more sustainable and efficient, so as to achieve higher-level, higher-quality development over a longer period of time. To ensure success in all our work this year, we must uphold the theme of scientific development, take transforming the pattern of economic development as the main thread, adopt a holistic approach and coordinate all our work. We must coordinate efforts to achieve steady growth, control prices, adjust the economic structure, improve people’s well-being, implement reform and promote harmony.” To be honest, I’ve had trouble figuring out why everyone got their underwear in a bunch over these comments. Sure, a slowing China would have negative implications for a global economy still suffering from the ill effects of the Great Recession and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Yet we should look at Wen’s statements with two key points in mind: First, the reality is China needs to slow its economy down. Second, China’s leadership shows no sign of allowing that to happen, no matter what nice speeches Wen might make. And that’s where the real threat to the world economy can be found. So we all know by now that what happens in China doesn’t stay in China – it impacts the entire world. China’s robust growth through the downturn practically rescued all of East Asia from the Great Recession, while giving a healthy boost to national economies from Australia to Brazil. As a major commodities importer, a slower China would likely mean lower prices for oil, iron ore, copper and other raw materials, dampening growth in many emerging markets. China’s economy has been a major source of new exports for the U.S., so a slowing China would directly hit American companies. Since China is the No.1 trading partner for most countries in Asia, a slower China would drag down growth across the region, and thus dampen overall global growth. In other words, if China’s GDP growth rate declines, just about everybody will feel it. But let’s face it — a slower growth China is simply inevitable. The bigger China’s economy becomes, the harder it will be to notch those double-digit growth rates. It’s just a normal part of the development process. China is also confronting a radically different demographic profile that is likely to hold down potential growth. Due to the country’s controversial one-child policy, the population is aging rapidly, meaning it will have to carry the burden of a larger number of older, unproductive people relative to its active workforce. Economists generally believe that China’s growth rates over the next 20 years or so will not match those of the previous 20 years. And just about everybody also agrees that a slower Chinese economy would likely be a healthier one. Growth today is being propelled by an economic model that is creating distortions dangerous enough to lead to a crisis. Investment levels are way too high and the economy is too dependent on property development. Rising costs are testing the competitiveness of its export sector. A surge of debt is placing the health of the banking sector at risk. China needs to shift to a different growth strategy, one based less on investment and exports and more on domestic consumption – the much-promoted “rebalancing.” The economy must operate on a more commercial basis to make sure investment goes where it is truly needed. Wen Jiabao clearly acknowledged this in his speech. The leadership has said again and again that it is imperative that the country shift away from a growth-at-all-costs mentality and focus more on quality of growth and people’s living standards. That’s why the government set a growth target of 7% in its current five-year plan, announced a year ago. In other words, everyone knows China has to slow down, and agrees it would be a good idea. But in the real world, there is no sign of China’s growth rate dropping anywhere near 7%. Nor is there any indication that the government will allow that to happen. Every time growth slips a bit, policymakers instantly jump in to stimulate it. GDP surged 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, well beyond the government’s stated targets, but that’s not fast enough for China’s leadership. The government is expected to run a larger budget deficit in 2012 than 2011 – a way to boost growth. And the central bank has already started to loosen credit by lowering the amount of cash banks have to set aside in reserve. So in the end, economists simply don’t believe Wen when he talks about slowing China down. Sun Junwei, an economist at HSBC, for example, wrote:”Envisaging another challenging year ahead, Beijing sets itself a 7.5% growth…target for 2012 as we expected. But given a bigger fiscal deficit and more steps towards monetary easing, we expect the GDP growth to hold up well at around 8.6% this year…We reiterate however that the lower GDP target should be seen more as the lower bound of Beijing’s range of acceptable growth forecasts, rather than as an actual growth forecast. Beijing has an impressive track record of overshooting its preannounced growth targets: for example, we refer to the average of 11% y-o-y actual growth vs. 8% y-o-y target growth for 2005-2011.” Translation from economics into English: Wen’s growth forecast is meaningless. That point was reinforced by Yu Song, an economist at Goldman Sachs: “In practice, the GDP growth target should be read as the lower bound of the comfort zone instead of a point target the government will try to achieve. A lower GDP target thus would imply a lower tolerable level. We think a slightly lower GDP growth target rate is sensible given the fall in the level of potential GDP growth…(The lower forecast is) a change of mere 0.5% which is within the margin of measurement errors of GDP data, hence not very important by definition.” Why does China insist on keeping its growth so high? The fact is that the government is much too worried about the potential social fallout (read: widespread unrest) to allow the economy to slow. And since the government’s legitimacy is based on providing rapid economic development (in exchange for repressed civil liberties), a slower economy threatens the leadership’s right to rule. In a way, that’s good news, at least in the short term, since we can expect policymakers to do whatever they can to keep the economy roaring. For me, though, the world should be more worried about the potential fallout from a China that doesn’t slow down than a China that does. Sure, reduced Chinese growth will hurt the global economy. But an unreformed China that refuses to change its economic model and promotes growth at all costs is a much bigger danger to world economic stability. Wen Jiabao is exactly correct about what China must do. Now let’s see if it really gets done. 【1265】 |
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