看看此题是不是疯话...= =

carolballack

When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

carolballack

答案是D。

这讲的是神马啊？！

我对题干的理解是：人们预测X不会发生，除非A发生。因为他们知道A发生时，X发生了。但问题是X发生可能还有除A的其他原因。（貌似还是能理解的样子。。）

这D选项是神马呀？？Distinguish瓦特啊？有效，无效，预测，行为又是甚啊？我不想钻研了，考试时肯定不选D。求牛人开化。

流云枫

我选的是D   结论是对前提的进一步削弱  楼主的理解 我没理解~~~~（见谅——）
我是这么理解的  人们认为只有付诸行动才能产生结果  他们对此深信不疑  然而事实经常明确的显示导致结果的常常不止是“付诸行动” 这一解释。。。
也就是说 前提是 行动产生结果  然而HOWEVER后面是 结果不一定是人们的行动导致的， 可能是它因   所以D选项分辨人们“有用功”对于结果 和 “无用功”对于结果的影响是无法实现的， 就是对结果不一定是人们的行动导致的 进一步加强  也是对前提的进一步削弱。。。