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<font size="3">摩根士丹利亚洲区主席斯蒂芬·罗奇长江演讲<br />Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach: Time to Overhaul China's Export Machine<br /><br />Beijing, November 12, 2009 – The global financial crisis has served as China’s wake-up call to transform its economic model to one geared more towards domestic consumption, said Stephen Roach, Asia chairman for Morgan Stanley, in a talk Thursday at Cheung Kong’s Beijing campus. <br /><br />“There’s an urgency to this transition,” said Roach, author of the recently-published The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization. “The export-led Chinese growth dynamic is going to be challenged as never before.”<br /><br />Consumption as a share of the Chinese economy stands at a mere 35 percent and is falling. “No country has numbers this low,” Roach said. <br /><br />But he added that he has confidence in the ability of pragmatic Chinese policymakers – whom he noted are anxious to avoid social instability -- to launch such a profound economic shift. “This will be China’s next miracle.”<br /><br />Some China pundits push the line that the Chinese have culturally-ingrained habits of thriftiness that will take years to change. But Roach disagrees, arguing that Chinese savings rates remain high only because social safety nets are still weak. <br /><br />Beijing is already preparing plans to help address the problem, he added. According to Roach, who said he had seen preliminary drafts of the twelfth five-year plan to be enacted in 2011, it will include provisions to build out a safety net, including major investments in social security, medical care, and unemployment insurance, as well as income subsidies for rural Chinese. <br /><br />The early drafts also indicate Beijing hopes to promote the development of Chinese consumer product and services industries, including by helping create service-oriented industry clusters, perhaps anchored by universities, in coastal areas and into central China. <br /><br />From a global perspective, Roach said the lopsided geographic consumption patterns that developed over the past 30 years are no longer sustainable. China and India, which together comprise nearly 40 percent of the world population, account for only one quarter of the consumption of the U.S., which claims a mere 4.5 percent of the global population. <br /><br />Leading up to the financial crisis, China and other Asian economies had come to rely heavily on American consumption to support GDP growth. Since 1980, exports as a share of GDP in Asia have been steadily increasing, while consumption has actually been decreasing. <br /><br />Yet the U.S.-led spending binge that undergirded years of strong Asian GDP growth has now skidded to a stop. It will take years for once free-spending Americans to pay off their heavy levels of debt. <br /><br />“The American consumer is finished, done -- as we say in the United States, toast,” said Roach. <br /><br /> He argues the rebound in global stock markets since September 2008 has been based on unrealistic expectations of a sharp snapback in consumption. “The markets want to believe in a V-shaped recovery, but now they’re starting to discount those hopes.” <br /><br />Though he is often pressed to predict whether the global recovery will take the shape of a V, U, or W, Roach said he prefers to say it will resemble a Japanese wok -- the sides of which are shaped in a slow, gradual incline.</font> |
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发表于 2009-11-15 18:32:53
