以下是引用dhdlorent在2008-10-20 13:52:00的发言：when a machine broke down, who is to blame, the malfunctioning component, or the engineer hand-making the system? think about it...... The thing is, too much ideology is involved in defending both the malfunctioning component and the system. Neoliberalism always claim the free world is always alright, when it fails, it is an accident, and it can learn and correct itself from the past. Too much these kind of pseudo science with a ideology core just fool the ordinary folks around. Let's face the facts- the natural leverge a future contract bears make it a natural speculation tool than traditional contract; the future price is a poor predictor of the price in future empiracally; Hedge funds trade at a very large proportion in Chicago commodity future; there was less Real demand for oil this summer than this winter; and finally, price can be manipulated by large traders. However, ass determines thought. The derivative industry always propose their assumptions instead of the facts below: Future provides a hedge tool for real players (while if future trading adds volatility to both future and spot prices, this hedge offers little better-off to them in a worsened context) ; the speculation will allow smart predictors to make money in order to smooth out the volatility ( this is a joke, no hedge fund seriously adds up all the economic data and act on that theorectical price, or at least no one succeeds this way so far. The easy way, though, is to manipulate the market to get a bullish momentum and quit at high price, or simply be bullish when the market is already bullish, be bearish when the market is already bearish); Hedge funds provide liquidity for real market participants ( they creat volatility too) ; The price of oil is simply supply and demand ( demand for a commodity not only means I want it because I need to use it, but includes that I want it because I think I can sell it at an even higher price (speculative demand). Just think of real estate bubbles) Market participants are sparse and price takers. (Are you living in a world without Morgans? Haven't you ever read any nonfiction bestseller on WS plots? Find a book and get educated) Finally and Finally, FBI has sent agents to investigate the suspected oil future manipulation and the credit swap derivative which was assumed to contribute the collapse of big banks. Are you smarter than them? Are you in a more detached position than them? Or are all your sayings just intend to defend your high salary? | 
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发表于 2008-10-20 03:34:00
发表于 2008-10-20 12:54:00
