OG-10

youarewordy

以下是引用weane在2003-11-27 8:12:00的发言：
10. Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia, with
approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century.
The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected
circumstances is unpredictable.
Which of the following conclusions can most properly be drawn, if the statements above are true, about a highly
automated nuclear-missile defense system controlled by a complex computer program?
A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a
nuclear war.
B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth’s atmosphere.
C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a
nuclear weapon.
D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on
the location of the blast.
E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers
did not plan for such a contingency.

标准答案是E，但我觉得E是可以自证的答案，也就是说即使没有任何先决条件E都是成立的，不知诸位怎么看？

首先E不是无条件成立的,将题干末句反一反,The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected
circumstances is "predictable".E就不成立了

对可得结论题,选项中如出现无关信息,则该选项错.所以A,C错

A.Within a century after its(the system's) construction如何如何，题干中未涉及，（注意：题干给出的每一百年如何如何，是针对爆炸，对系统可没有涉及到年限问题）所以Ａ错

ＣThe system would be destroyed 系统在怎样条件下会被＂毁坏＂，题干中未涉及．也属无关推测，所以Ｃ错．

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-6-3 12:06:01编辑过]

Avantasia

还是不理解OG对于AC的解释？

哪位大侠可否赐教？

arben

再问，为什么it is consistent with the stated information 就产生A ,C 不能推理出来呢？

arben

请牛牛帮忙回答一下。A，C 的解释。

snowjing

以下是引用lifelover在2004-10-16 0:56:00的发言：

Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests

in Siberia, with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century.

The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable.

E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be,

if its designers did not plan for such a contingency.

对于E的正确性我就不再质疑了，它的因果关系和题干对应得很整齐。 原来的疑惑同14、15楼，不能清楚理解对Ａ、Ｃ选项的解释。再仔细阅读了几遍，觉得把AC解释里的形式主语用真正的主语替换掉可能更好理解，比如：

C cannot be inferred since an appropriately designed nuclear defense system might be able to distinguish nuclear from meteorite is consistent with the stated information。

所谓一致是OG解释已经把C取非后得到的结论和题干信息一致，从而否定了C 的正确性，而不是C选项里的内容和题干信息一致. 我觉得OG的解释有时候象电光火石一般，就象咱们用中文思维，有时候一不小心已经跨出去好几步了。所以还是得象很多大N们说的一样，必须训练咱们自己象ETS一样的思维啊。

理解得还不是很透彻，请批评指正。

不是NN，试解：

OG对C的解释，可以参考Lifelover的；

OG对A的解释，"no meteorite explosion will occur within a century" 是对(A)中"Within a century"的取非；同时也等于文章已有信息"occur about once a century". 因为一个世纪发生一次，不就暗含了一个世纪“之内”是不发生的吗？！！

请NN们指正。

swlfx

thanks to Lifelover.

swlfx

以下是引用snowjing在2005-7-19 3:08:00的发言：

不是NN，试解：

OG对C的解释，可以参考Lifelover的；

OG对A的解释，"no meteorite explosion will occur within a century" 是对(A)中"Within a century"的取非；同时也等于文章已有信息"occur about once a century". 因为一个世纪发生一次，不就暗含了一个世纪“之内”是不发生的吗？！！

请NN们指正。

原文说大约100年发生一次爆炸，所以100年以内不发生的话与原文内容是相符的（或者说是不矛盾的）

weichenli

Totally agree!

A and C has confused me for a while, now all clear.

thanks to everyone!

cheer!

dovecat

我的看法：OG在这道题上的解释不是很好，这道题是一道标准的conclusion题，读题时，承认原文的信息即可。做题时，正确选项必须是从原文conclude出的，不能超出原文范围。原文：A：陨石爆炸的威力如何如何，B：complex computer programs 对于不可预期情况（circumstances）的反应是不可预知的。所以选项范围只能是：A，orB， orA交B。下面看选项，无关选项可以排除：A：start a nuclear war文章没提到，错。B：the system would be destroyed,文章也没提到，错，C：Iimpossible 2 distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of anuclear weapon 没提到，错，D 同理，E，就是文中B句话的同意转述，就对了阿。这里我觉得不存在自证不自证，因为是归纳题，文中说什么就得什么，老美的思维没那么复杂。

foreinter

以下是引用snowjing在2005-7-19 3:08:00的发言：

不是NN，试解：

OG对C的解释，可以参考Lifelover的；

OG对A的解释，"no meteorite explosion will occur within a century" 是对(A)中"Within a century"的取非；同时也等于文章已有信息"occur about once a century". 因为一个世纪发生一次，不就暗含了一个世纪“之内”是不发生的吗？！！

请NN们指正。

只能这样解释了，但是A选项是within a century after its constrcution, 而文中是说100发生一次。比如说上次发生爆炸是1850年，系统建成是1900年，那么在1950年就可能发生爆炸，而且是在系统建成的100年内。

做题时没问题，但是被A 。C的解释折腾半天，先这样理解吧。