OG-10

laserlee1

E是从文章里推出来的 没有IF ，E是错误的

句1。METARITE 100年一次（UNEXPECTED）

句2。highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs  对 unexpected
circumstances是unpredictable.

问 highly automated nuclear-missile defense system controlled by a complex computer program 会怎么样

E 如果不是专门的事件，则后果It is not certain 。

解释： 少了IF这个限定 ，即意味有可能是UN-UNEXPECTABLE，则E的前半句并不能被100% 做断言（因为如设计时已经考虑。则后果是CERTAIN）

dreamerdream

超级同意楼上的观点。

在OG中解释，让我困惑。首先它对正确答案的解释和楼上是一样的。但是对于A和C的解释就不懂了。

A: A cannot be inferred since it is consistent with the stated information that no meteorite explosion will occur within a century.

C:C cannot be inferred since it is consistent with the stated information that an appropriately designed nuclear defense system might be able to distinguish nuclear from meteorite explosions.

简直莫名其妙，哪里有什么consistent with还stated information，敢问题干中又说过吗？困惑.....

用楼上的逻辑看C，从appropriately可能可以联想到expected，这样就不会unpredicted。但是牵强吗？继续困惑......

tulipmontreal

请注意这个是推论题

A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a
nuclear war. (不可预知)
B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth’s atmosphere.(2者无必然联系)
C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a
nuclear weapon.(这个文章没提到)
D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on
the location of the blast.(这个文章没提到)
E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers
did not plan for such a contingency. The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected
circumstances is unpredictable. 可比性推出E正确!

dreamerdream

我是这样理解的：

对于A选项，因为没有给出IF条件，即没有说unexpected这个条件，所以得出一个定向的结论是错误的。这个结论是不好的结果，即react inappropriately and might accidentally start a nuclear war.，但是其实我们是不知道结果的好坏的，因为unpredictable。

但是OG的解释我搞不懂，OG说A选项所述与题干中的“陨石爆炸不会在一个世纪内发生”相一致。不懂

难道OG的解释错了？或者我理解错了。

tony6

我也是感觉看了OG-CR的解释有时反倒迷糊了。这道题是打错了吧，consistent如果是inconsistent，A和C就都好讲通了。这个版本的OG可是有一些错误的。

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-6-13 14:41:09编辑过]

homosexual

从语法的角度，大家会经常把og的解释读错哦，再想想it的功用！！

很重要哦，因为他不是一个简单的代词，而是形式主语，真正主语是“choice A and C cannot be inffered"

lost_my_account

以下是引用weane在2003-11-27 8:12:00的发言：
10. Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia, with
approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century.
The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected
circumstances is unpredictable.
Which of the following conclusions can most properly be drawn, if the statements above are true, about a highly
automated nuclear-missile defense system controlled by a complex computer program?
A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a
nuclear war.
B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth’s atmosphere.
C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a
nuclear weapon.
D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on
the location of the blast.
E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers
did not plan for such a contingency.

标准答案是E，但我觉得E是可以自证的答案，也就是说即使没有任何先决条件E都是成立的，不知诸位怎么看？

i think it is not necessary to think about too much. Every raw material needed to choose a option is written within the range of the question.

1.How the system responds to the unexpected circumstances is unpridicable.

2. The big meteor explosion belongs to the unexpected circumstances.

So,....................................

howl

The most importent is the question.

The question ask how  highly automated nuclear-missiile defense system reponse to unexpected circumstances.

In the passage, highly automated systems  reponse to unexpected circumstances are unexpected.  Highly automated system include highly automated nuclear-missile defense system , So the highly automated nuclear-missile defense system has the same reponse as highly automated systems.  

E is the best answer

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-9-15 16:02:20编辑过]

chenjie_1028

以下是引用jandj_shanghai在2003-11-27 19:13:00的发言：
对，我也认为选项本身和题目关系并不密切。
如果结合原题，系统的反应都是不可预测的，无论设计者有没有设定。似乎只要E选项的前半部分就足够了。

我觉得系统对不可预知的时间的反应才是不可预测的，对应到E选项，如果设计者没有把陨石爆炸这个可能性编写到系统的程序里，那么爆炸对于系统来说就是不可预知的，系统的反应也就是uncertain

lifelover

Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests

in Siberia, with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century.

The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable.

E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be,

if its designers did not plan for such a contingency.

对于E的正确性我就不再质疑了，它的因果关系和题干对应得很整齐。 原来的疑惑同14、15楼，不能清楚理解对Ａ、Ｃ选项的解释。再仔细阅读了几遍，觉得把AC解释里的形式主语用真正的主语替换掉可能更好理解，比如：

C cannot be inferred since an appropriately designed nuclear defense system might be able to distinguish nuclear from meteorite is consistent with the stated information。

所谓一致是OG解释已经把C取非后得到的结论和题干信息一致，从而否定了C 的正确性，而不是C选项里的内容和题干信息一致. 我觉得OG的解释有时候象电光火石一般，就象咱们用中文思维，有时候一不小心已经跨出去好几步了。所以还是得象很多大N们说的一样，必须训练咱们自己象ETS一样的思维啊。

理解得还不是很透彻，请批评指正。