[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day44

PBkk

Day 44
1.        鱼的嗅觉（今日喜加一）
研究发现现在某地的河流里，鱼儿门都disoriented了，科学家们就假设是pesticide造成的。经过研究发现鱼儿如果受到某种化学物质的影响会失去方向感，同时又发现这些pesticides里面含有这种化学成分。因此更加证实了科学家们的假设。问evalue：

P（现象）：鱼转向；pesticides中某种化学物质影响方向感
C（结论）：pesticides -> 鱼转向

assumption: 排除其他鱼转向的原因；或者 直接加强pesticides 导致鱼转向的原因

【类似题目】
Capuchin monkeys in Venezuela often rub a certain type of millipede into their fur. Secretions of these millipedes have been shown to contain two chemicals that are potent mosquito repellents, and mosquitoes carry parasites that debilitate the capuchins. The rubbing behavior is rare except during the rainy season, when mosquito populations are at their peak. Therefore, the monkeys probably rub the millipedes into their fur because doing so helps protect them against mosquitoes.
Which of the following would it be most useful to determine in order to evaluate the argument?
(A) Whether the two chemicals provide any protection for the millipedes against their own predators
(B) Whether the type of millipede used by the capuchin monkeys in Venezuela is found in other parts of the world
(C) Whether animals other than capuchins rub insects of any kind into their fur
(D) Whether the only time the millipedes are readily available to the capuchins is during the rainy season
(E)Whether secretions of any other insects accessible to the capuchins contain chemicals that repel mosquitoes

P（现象）：“猴子 rub mill to fur in 蚊子多的rainy seasons”  & “mil 分泌防蚊子化学物”
C（结论）：猴子rub mil to fur in 蚊子多的rainy seasons + mil 分泌防蚊子化学物 --推出--> 这么做防蚊子

assumption: 排出一种猴子这么做的其他原因


2.        消费和营业时间
顾客的消费和他呆在mall里的时间成正比，这个mall要新开一家cinema，顾客呆的时间不会明显增加。由于顾客在cinema里消费少，所以公司的收入会下降，【注意】之前说错了，不是问weaken，是问这个建立在哪个错误的assumption上了

P（现象）：Mall里新开一个cinema & 顾客在Mall里时间不会明显增加 & 顾客在Cinema消费少
C（结论）：Mall里新开一个cinema & 顾客在Mall里时间不会明显增加 & 顾客在Cinema消费少 + assumption --> 公司收入下降

assumption：讨论收入和前面现象的关系
- 收入 = 人数 * 消费。
1）人数：人数不会增长
2）cinema消费低 --> mall里消费会下降




3.        原题
With seventeen casinos, Moneyland operates the most casinos in a certain state. Although intent on expanding, it was outmaneuvered by Apex Casinos in negotiations to acquire the Eldorado chain. To complete its acquisition of Eldorado, Apex must sell five casinos to comply with a state law forbidding any owner to operate more than one casino per county. Since Apex will still be left operating twenty casinos in the state, it will then have the most casinos in the state.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the prediction?
A Apex, Eldorado, and Moneyland are the only organizations licensed to operate casinos in the state.
B The majority of Eldorado's casinos in the state will need extensive renovations if they are to continue to operate profitably.
C Some of the state's counties do not permit casinos.
D Moneyland already operates casinos in the majority of the state's counties.
E Apex will use funds it obtains from the sale of the five casinos to help fund its acquisition of the Eldorado chain.

P：M有最多赌场17家；A需要卖5家+ E几家赌场，还剩下20家。
C：A有最多的赌场

Assumption: 直接反击结论A：A卖给M。

Yangxinxin1219

1

Yangxinxin1219

1. D
猴子是不是只在下雨天（即蚊子多的时候）使用这个物质？如果是，加强；不是，削弱
2. cinema可能会带来额外的收入？
3. A

darlingvivia

看一下！               

Baba886

1.
从河里杀虫剂的含量入手：这种杀虫剂有多少流入了河内；或者控制变量：同一片地区没有使用这种杀虫剂的鱼儿情况如何等
D

2.
其错误建立在顾客在cinema的消费等同于在mall里的所有消费，属于以小推大，一般来说mall除了cinema之外还有其他消费项目，所以即使顾客在cinema的消费少，并不代表公司的收入会下降。

3.
A：如果只有AEM三家有赌场经营执照，且A为了收购E必须卖掉5家，那么意味着市场上只有A和M可以经营赌场，即A只能将5家赌场卖给M，M原本有15家，收购5家赌场之后就有22家了，与agreement矛盾。

问题不大35

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佛系A子在線讀書

同意！               

鸡麦特焖焖

1

vestofmmw

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George_chen

看一下！