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JOURNAL ARTICLE
How Climate Evolved on the Terrestrial Planets
James F. Kasting, Owen B. Toon and James B. Pollack
Scientific American
Vol. 258, No. 2 (FEBRUARY 1988), pp. 90-97
Published by: Scientific American, a division of Nature America, Inc.
How Climate Evolved on the Terrestrial Planets
Planets with temperate, earthlike climates were once thought to be rare in our galaxy. Mathematical models now suggest that if planets do exist outside the solar system, many of them might be habitable
By James F. Kasting, Owen B. Toon and James B. Pollack
The Faint-Young-Sun Paradox
Our interest in the role of carbon dioxide in the evolution of the earth, Mars and Venus had its roots in another cosmological puzzle relating to the origin of the earth: the faint- young-sun paradox. Virtually every model of stellar evolution indicates that the sun was between 25 and 30 percent dimmer when the solar system formed some 4.6 billion years ago than it is today. Since then the solar luminosity, or intensity, has apparently increased approximately linearly with time.
第一段第一句话说,3.8billion年前,太阳比现在dimmer(暗示太阳温度低),但是当时地球表面有液态水了。科学家觉得不可思议,因为按计算地球应该是冰封状态,所以提出了一个假设,就是greenhouse吸收了太阳的热量。如何证明是不是greenhouse,就说海洋中氢会分解成较轻和较重的两种同位素,较轻的氢同位素会挥发到space中,较重的会沉淀在海里。然后有一段啰嗦的逻辑过程,反正就是说测较轻的氢同位素含量就能知道当时是不是greenhouse,然后就说证明不是这样的。第二段就是第二个假设,就是说云少,反射太阳光少,所以吸收太阳热量多。为什么云少呢?因为当时陆地少,而陆地是提供云形成必须的颗粒物的,因此云少。有一题问文章第一句(就是太阳dimmer那句)和文章最后一句(云少所以吸热多)的关系,我选第一句提出现象,最后一句提出可能解释。还有题问3.8billion年前哪件事是must be true,好像5个选项都是与now对比的。
The paradox arises, as Carl Sagan and George H. Mullen of Cornell University pointed out about 15 years ago, when one realizes that if the earth's early atmosphere was the same as it is now, a weak sun would have resulted in an ice-covered earth until about two billion years ago. Yet the planet did not freeze. In fact, evidence from sedimentary rocks indicates that the earth has had liquid oceans since at least 3.8 billion years ago, when the geological record begins. Moreover, life has been present for at least the past 3.5 billion years, demonstrating that the earth's surface has never been entirely frozen during that time. (Water can remain fluid as long as the temperature is between zero and 374 degrees c.; it boils and evaporates at 100 degrees C. at sea level today but will stay liquid at higher temperatures if the atmospheric pressure is increased.)
第二种是关于cloud的理论,此段短——和水大概是正相关的变化。。。失忆了
Sagan and Mullen realized that the paradox disappears if one assumes the earth's atmosphere has changed in the course of time. For instance, if the young planet had fewer clouds than it has today, less of the sunlight that impinged on the earth would have been reflected back into space, and the planet would have been correspondingly warmer. Some 30 percent of the sunlight that currently reaches the top of the atmosphere is returned to space, most of it by clouds. A chillier earth might well have had fewer clouds but the geological record suggests the early earth was actually warmer than today's. Parts of the planet are covered with glaciers now, but there is no evidence of similar glaciation before
about 2.7 billion years ago.
A more probable explanation is that the greenhouse effect was more pronounced in the distant past. Sagan and Mullen suggested that ammonia (NH3), an efficient absorber of infrared, could have warmed the climate if the gas represented just 100 out of every million molecules of the air. Subsequent studies have shown, however, that the sun would have rapidly converted ammonia into the non greenhouse gases nitrogen and hydrogen unless it was continually resupplied to the atmosphere from the planet's surface.
Other investigations have focused on carbon dioxide, which sunlight does not readily decompose. Carbon dioxide is certainly abundant here; the amount now stored in the planet in carbonate rocks would exert a pressure of about 60 bars if it were released into the atmosphere. (One bar is equal to 14.5 pounds per square inch, the pressure at sea level. Today the earth's atmosphere contains about .0003 bar of carbon dioxide.) If just a few tenths of a bar of the stored carbon dioxide was originally present as a gas, its additional greenhouse warming would have compensated for the reduced sunlight.
第三段开始说一个叫Michael的学者说我算了算二氧化碳的含量得出了一个数据,比它多地球太热比它少地球太冷,我算的很精确;其他学者反驳说他的因果不对,实际是温度和二氧化碳互相制衡达到稳定
有个问题问Michael没有考虑到什么?我选的好像是没考虑到互相调节还是啥的 第三段就说一个人做实验 证明了 二氧化碳浓度的什么rate确实是互相抵消的 然后再出来recent investigator说这个人错了,其实地球的二氧化碳浓度不是自己升高的,而是地球怎么样以后他被动升高的
The notion that higher carbon dioxide levels could have protected the early earth from freezing soon gave rise to a related idea: if the carbon dioxide level declined at a rate that precisely counteracted the increase in solar luminosity with time, the decline might account for the fact that the earth's temperature has always remained within reasonable limits. One investigator, Michael H. Hart of NASA, undertook to calculate such a compensatory rate.
Hart managed to work out a solution in which the levels of the gas declined approximately logarithmically with time, but his most interesting finding was that very few of his calculations succeeded. In other words, if the composition of the atmosphere had at any time changed at a rate different from his precise solution, the planet would have become unable to support life. If the carbon dioxide level had declined too slowly, the earth would have become a hothouse; if it had declined too quickly, the oceans would have frozen.
Hart did similar calculations for cases in which the distance between the earth and the sun was varied by small amounts. He found that if the earth had formed 5 percent closer to the sun, the atmosphere would have become so hot that the oceans would have evaporated, a condition known as a runaway greenhouse. Conversely, the planet would have encountered runaway glaciation if it had formed as little as 1 percent farther from the sun. Only in the relatively narrow range of orbits between .95 astronomical unit and 1.01 A. U. could one or the other of these climatic catastrophes be avoided. (One A.U. is the distance between the sun and the earth, or 149.6 million kilometers.) Hart termed this narrow band of orbital distances the continuously habitable zone (CHZ).
Hart's conclusions were unsettling because they suggested that the earth must have beaten extraordinary odds in avoiding the fate of Mars or Venus. Only within the past few years have investigators discovered the flaw in his hypothesis. A mathematical model developed by James C. G. Walker and Paul B. Hays of the University of Michigan and by one of us (Kasting) suggests that the changes in carbon dioxide concentration did not arise by sheer luck. Rather, carbon dioxide levels have probably fluctuated in response to changes in surface temperature. When the temperature goes up, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels decline, cooling the surface; when the surface cools, the abundance of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases and warms the surface. The existence of such a negative-feedback loop means that the earth probably has never been in danger of undergoing either the runaway greenhouse or the runaway glaciation postulated by Hart.
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