求教OG13-CR120题！！！！

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Codex Berinensis, a Florentine copy of ancient Roman medical treatise, is undated but contains clues to when it was produced. Its first 80 pages are by a single copyist, but the remaining 20 pages are by three different copyists, which indicates some significant disruption. Since a letter in handwriting identified as that of the fourth copyist mentions a plague that killed ay people in Florence in 1148, Codex Berinensis was probably produced in that year.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the hypothesis that Codex Berinensis was produced in 1148?

A.      Other than Codex Berinensis, there are no known samples of the handwriting of the first three copyists.

B.      According to the account by the fourth copyist, the plague went on for 10 months.

C.      A scribe would be able to copy a page of text the size and style of Codex Berinensis in a day.

D.      There was only one outbreak of plague in Florence in the 1100s.

E.       The number of pages of Codex Berinensis produced by a single scribe becomes smaller ith each successive change of copyist.

这道题我确定到了在B和D之间选，但我最后选择了B，因为我觉得这要使瘟疫来确定这本书在1148必须要使得这场瘟疫持续时间不超过一年啊！如果这场瘟疫持续了24个月，就会到1149年，所以选B选项应该是可以加强原文结论的啊！我承认D是一个加强，但B也应该是加强吧！！求指导！！！求回答！！！

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我顶！！！求大神回答啊！！！实在理解不了啊

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再顶！！！求回答！！！！

lhz910216

lz先看结论“Codex Berinensis was probably produced in that year”
中间有个probably,所以凡是增加这部作品是在1148年写的可能性，即support
而B结论其实是无关项，只要是在1148年发生的plague，则有可能支持结论，跟持续多久没关系。
或者lz可以这么想，如果没有D，B还有意义吗~（没有D，就说明可能在其他plague期间写的，跟1148这次plague没关系，跟1148年这次plague持续多久更没关系）

ringo5

lhz910216 发表于 2013-8-1 12:20
lz先看结论“Codex Berinensis was probably produced in that year”
中间有个probably,所以凡是增加这部 ...

好赞的解释~~！我也是选择了B，看了这个稍微能明白一些。OG的解释也说这道题要考虑选项错对hypothesis的削弱作用。这道题我觉得正推特别难……=.=

而且OG对于D也说了，可能正是因为这次瘟疫，所以导致了版本的不连续，the plague of 1148 was the reason for the multiple copyists and that the work can thus be dated to that year.
我觉得意思可能是由于这次瘟疫造成的很多人的死亡，所以copyist就很可能在这次瘟疫中死去，导致了需要另外的copyist来接着写。

不过我自己对这个其实还是存疑的！期待教育！

ceciliauno

ringo5 发表于 2013-10-23 14:02
好赞的解释~~！我也是选择了B，看了这个稍微能明白一些。OG的解释也说这道题要考虑选项错对hypothesis的 ...

http://forum.chasedream.com/foru ... ght=og13%2Bcr%2B120

我也是不懂，给你搬个地址，好像这里的解释看了要 明白点

soulwangh

这道题我确定到了在B和D之间选，但我最后选择了B，因为我觉得这要使瘟疫来确定这本书在1148必须要使得这场瘟疫持续时间不超过一年啊！如果这场瘟疫持续了24个月，就会到1149年，所以选B选项应该是可以加强原文结论的啊！我承认D是一个加强，但B也应该是加强吧！！求指导！！！求回答！！！

This reasoning process has a logical fallacy .  Any argument claiming that B is a strengthener must already assume the conclusion of his argument (i.e., circular reasoning)!  

When should we consider B as a strengthener?
P: the plague happened at the beginning of 1148.
C: the plague ended in 1148.
In the stimulus above you can consider B is a strengthener.

Remember, the whole point of this argument is we do not know whether there is an outbreak of plague in 1148. Therefore，for the same reason，we do not know whether the plague happened in 1148 in choice B either.

soulwangh

soulwangh 发表于 2013-11-12 14:19
This reasoning process has a logical fallacy .  Any argument claiming that B is a strengthener mus ...

或者lz可以这么想，如果没有D，B还有意义吗~（没有D，就说明可能在其他plague期间写的，跟1148这次plague没关系，跟1148年这次plague持续多久更没关系）

This point is a good explanation for the circular reasoning fallacy.