被这道题弄的彻彻底底晕了，OG13 77 ！ 什么意思啊

西瓜和草莓

A recent report determined that although only 3 percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, 33 percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.
The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?
(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.
(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.
(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.
(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.
答案B 我选了A
我看了各大论坛的解释，越看越晕！ 哪位大侠帮忙解释解释！ 谢谢！！

adamzjw

我也是看了论坛大神们的讨论，一头雾水。后来自己想了一下，其实这题非常简单。
解题思路类似5楼和7楼：

假设1：3%的车装了雷达
假设2:  吃罚单的车中33%的车装了雷达
结论： 有雷达的车更容易超速
题目问要从假设推出结论需要依赖哪一个assumption。

这里，Gap是，如果吃罚单的车并不是经常超速的，那我们只能说有雷达的车经常吃罚单，而不能说有雷达的车经常超速。

也就是，五个答案里面，B答案如果翻过来说：“吃罚单的车并不是那些经常超速的车”，那我们将不可能推出题目需要的答案。
而其他四个答案，比如A：无论装了雷达的车是否影响了吃罚单的概率，我们只能讨论他们是否经常“吃罚单”，而不能推出关于“更容易超速”的结论。

HarrisZheng

哪有那么复杂？还画柱状图？

就是个简单的搭桥过程

第一句话是说：所有的车里有3%装雷达，超速被抓（ticketed for exceeding the speed limit ）的人里有33%装雷达 也就是说 装雷达的人更容易超速被抓

结论是说 装雷达的人更容易超速  

注意：这里gap就来了， 一个是超速被抓，一个是超速 。这是两个概念

共同元素是装雷达，B 就把超速和超速被抓两者联系起来来

这个题目的道理就如同 : 因为我是人 所以我要吃饭。问你assumption。 很显然assumption人要吃饭

charlenelee

a选项不是直接和作者的原意相悖吗

siline

这道题的关键是regularly这个词吧。

anwear

楼主最好用柱状图   我不太好给你画， 一个方形，中间一条线得到两个柱子，一个是ticketers，一个不是， 然后再画横线穿ticketers柱子，代表exceed（任意画）， 然后再画大约33%分割线做equiped，由于条件中说了drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly are drivers who do not. 所以两个柱子应该是t的那个分割线柱子大，所以b 不知道楼主看明白了吗

袁小狒Yedda

觉得A也像对，但是没有B直接。
如果装了雷达的车和不装雷达的车相比，都超速了的情况下前者更不容易被抓，而装雷达的车平均被抓几率还比不装雷达的车大，那么就说明装雷达的车比不装雷达的车容易超速。好像是概率问题。。B就不会这么复杂，直接得到答案。其实B是A的结论了。
而且A没有说“超速了”这个前提，可能还是我主观地加上了吧

nolanhym

A与B的主要区别在于assumption和strengthen的主要区别，

看Ron的最后一个post！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！

http://www.manhattangmat.com/forums/a-recent-report-determined-that-although-only-three-percent-t962.html

simmba

一个是超速被抓，一个是超速 。这是两个概念

caichenha

HarrisZheng 发表于 2012-9-24 14:21
哪有那么复杂？还画柱状图？就是个简单的搭桥过程第一句话是说：所有的车里有3%装雷达，超速被抓（ticketed ...

这个解释简单明了，赞一个！！