【每日逻辑链练习贴】【逻辑1-13】

大三准备留学

1.卖男人裤袜的公司想在客户群不变的情况下通过每六个月一次的周期降价来促进销售量
削弱：每个客户的每年买的裤袜数量不会因为降价而增加

2.原来的调查认为吃巧克力增加患心脏病可能 最近调查认为吃巧克力降低患病可能
 所以会促使巧克力的消费增加

假设：原先的调查使得巧克力的消费减少

3.某个时期，天气变得干燥且温度上升，大型哺乳动物灭绝 但是小的活下来了
 为什么？ 因为小的某个原因比大的更适应。。。

4.奖金不应该只有在增加百分之十的投资恢复时才能被授予，越高的利润越高的奖金，所以在普遍的经济衰退的时期，奖金比这个行业达到顶峰时要低

假设 衰退时期达不到百分之十 而顶峰达到

CC5

1.36s
Info1: the profit of socks has increased
Info2: company plan to increase the discount-sale period
Doubt: whether client need to buy more socks every year
2.27s
con: the consumption of chocolate will increase
 re: the news that chocolate will not increase the heart…
     is told to public
 ass: 之前那个不好的报道使得巧克力销量下降

3.32s
info1:the climate in xx was very well at the end of .....
Info2:larger mammals became extinct while smaller mammals became survived

Basis:大的哺乳动物更适合在寒冷的条件生存

4.1min10s
Con: the p in this year is lower than in last year
Info1:b cannot be awarded unless exceed last year
Info2:higher b---higher p

Ass: nothing can make p increase

MiaZhang

1.26s
P=Plan: increase promotional period to one of every 6 months
C=Goal: increase the sales so that the company could increase the profit
Weaken: customers will not buy socks unless they wear out their old ones and the cycle of the socks is more than 6 months/ the promotional period does not coincide with the period when customers will buy socks.
2.16s (this argument is so kind since it is so short! > <)
P: a study shows that chocolate will not increase the risk of heart attack
C: the sale of chocolate will increase after the study is published
Assumption: the customers were affected by the previous study and decrease their buying chocolate behavior since their care about health and want to avoid heart attack.
3.32s
BG: in the end of P period, the climate in NA became warmer and drier.
P1: smaller animals extinct
P2: mammalian survived
Resolve the paradox: because the mammalian can survive the warmer and drier climate trend while the small animals cannot.
4.42s
P: bonuses cannot be awarded unless the profit in DSR exceed 10%, lower profit?lower bonuses
C: bonuses in general recession year is lower than that in peak year
Assumption: peak year means the profit will exceed 10%
5.①A.不能因为铁路每年花钱多，而且更适合trucking，就取消对铁路的property taxes，有可能铁路的运营需要政府付出更多的监管服务，如果是这样的话，这个税就不应该取消
②B.虽然花费上，铁路只是高速公路运输的有钱的1/3，但是铁路有可能需要更多的fuel or coal来运行，会对环境产生更多的压力。
③C.不能因为花费运费少，就说是cost-effective的，可能铁路运输还存在其他费用，比如人工的装卸费，有可能比公路运输花费更多
④D.不能因为铁路已经存在就不再需要建设新的铁路，有可能随着trucking的增多，对线路的要求越来越复杂，需要建设新的railway

快考试了，今天做三个练习吧！加油~

Cybill

1. 28.4' men always bought 12 socks every year, the shop determine to promote their socks in every 6 months.

2. 17.3' Recently, research claims that eat chocolate won't increase likelihood of getting heart decease.

3. 18.4' Climate became warm and dried in xxxx, large mammals became extinct, however small mammals survived.

4. 32' Bonuses cannot be awarded until profits > 10% stockholder's investment. Bonuses in a general economic recession < peak profits.

kid381

1-13
61 39’’
Background info: a men’s sock company plan to increase its market shares.
Fact1: the size of customer pool keeps steady these years.
Fact2: presumably each male customer buys 12 pairs of socks every year.
Weaken: most of male people tend to buy new pairs of socks at the beginning of each year they will wear in the whole year.
62 25’’
Premise: previous studies show eating chocolate is harmful to people’s heart, increasing the probability they will get heart attack.
Evidence: new studies indicate that chocolate will not harm people’s heart.
Conclusion: once the new evidence is known to people, the chocolate industry will embrace an increasing in the consuming of its products.
Assumption: consumers know and really care about the studies.
63 38’’
Evidence: climate become warmer and dryer at the end of Pleistocene period
Conclusion: then Megafauna die out but small mammalian species survive.
Basis: Megafauna, other than small mammalian, prefer cold and wet climate.
64 41’’
Premise1: bonus at DSR industries awarded for profits exceeding 10% return on stockholders’ investment.
Premise2: High profits= High bonus.
Conclusion: bonus is lower in economic recession than in the peak profits at DSR.
Assumption: in the depression times, DSR could seldom sales its products and still cost fixed costs. = (the profit in DSR is so low that staffs receive little bonus)
65 70’’
Evidence: 1. trucking companies pay only a portion of highway maintenance costs and no property tax. 2. Railways spend billions per year on maintaining and upgrading.
Argument: government should lower the railroad companies’ property taxes.
Points: 1.based on a false analogy. The argument only compares some characteristics of railway transportation to the characteristics of highway transportation. The two industries are not that comparable. Though highway transportation is more expensive than railway transit, highway is more convenient and easier to access to every corner of the country. Railway, on the other hand, …
2. Gratuitous assumption, each trucking company only pay a portion of highway maintenance costs, but the aggregation of all the payments by trucking company may cover the maintenance cost, what is more, highway management agency can charge the transportation fee in a long period, thus it can offset or even surpass its maintaining cost.
3. The proposed measurement on railway might not as successful as the policy maker’s expectation. Increasing in rail traffic would not require building new lines but might increase the burden of existing railway, and excessive transportation might decrease the efficiency and shorten the durable years of railway.

flonacui

1 35s
p:increase the promotion sales period to one in six months
g:to increase sales and then to increase profits
weaken:cost-profit benefit, people do not need more socks even though the promtion will take in effect
2 35s
Info:a previous study suggested that eating chocolate could cause heart disease.
Info:a new, more reliable, study suggests that eating chocolate would not cause heart disease.
C: The concumption of the chocolate will inevidently increase when the new study is knew by people.
aumption: This is the only factor that affect the consumption of chocolate
3 45s
Info: The climate became dried and warmed at the end of the P area.
Info: The large mammal died but the small mammal survived.
explain the discrepancy: The small mammal could be well adapted to the harsh environment
4
P high profits mean high bonus.
C The bonus in the recession is less than the bones in peak profit
assumption: ten percent

Yvette19

1. 45s

BG1: 某男袜生产商想要通过增加销售量来增加收益。
BG2：通常平均一位客户每年会买一打袜子。（我漏了半句：客户群的尺码基本维持不变）
Conclusion生产商想借提高打折频率来增加销售量，每半年打个折。

Weaken: 打折起不到促销作用。。

2.  45s
BG:之前的说法是吃巧克力会增加罹患心脏病的几率。最近又有个更可靠的说法是，吃巧克力不增加心脏病几率。
Conclusion：所以巧克力的消费量一定会增加。

Assumption: 人们只会相信新的更可靠的说法。

肿莫办不小心就十二点半了说好的12点半碎觉的呢 我要不要关上抽屉先呜呜呜 还是一口气写完吧加油然后争取快点睡！

3. 30s
化石记录显示P时期末，北美气候变暖并且变干。
于是很多猛犸象的品种都灭绝了，但是有些体型比较小的猛犸象还活着。

Explanation: 可能小象身体小需要的水较少，所以可以适应干燥环境？

4. 45s
BG:只有当股东的收益超过10%，该公司才会发奖金。也就是说高收益则高奖金。
Conclusion 所以在整体经济衰退的某一年中，奖金一定发的比该公司收益顶峰时要少。

Assumption 该公司受整体经济态势影响大，经济衰退收益少，经济繁荣收益高。

5.

m1nt

1. 20’
Premise: increase profits by increasing sales
Conclusion: customer size no change, increase the number of promotional discount-sale periods， profits increase
Weaken:

2. 18’
Premise: Study shows that eating chocolate does not increase the risk of heart disease
Conclusion: result of the study become well known, consumption will increase
Assumption: People limit consumption of chocolate only reason is fear of heart disease risk

3. 15
INfo1: P Period weather warmed and dried
Info2: Large mammals extinct, small mammals survive
Resolve: Large mammals cannot withstand the change

4. 36s
Premise: higher profits means higher bonuses
Conclusion: bonuses in a year of economic recession will be lower than in a year of peak profits
Assumption: recession year will have low profits

5. 46’ 超时了
Premise: sending goods by rail is better than highway shipping.
Same load trains consume fuel less than truck
Rail lines already exist, increases in rail traffic would not require building new lines at the expense of taxpaying citizens
Conclusion: lower the railroad companies’ property taxes
Weaken: 1. Train costs more time, more resources, labor, not cost effective
       2. maintain railway needs more money

大三准备留学

Yvette19 发表于 2013-8-15 07:26
1. 45s

BG1: 某男袜生产商想要通过增加销售量来增加收益。

.................

jenniferlyy125

1. 31’
P: the company want to increase profits by increase sales
P: the size of customer pool is stead
P: the plan is to increase the discount-sale period to twice a year
【目的方案】目的是增加利润。方案是增加打折销售的次数和时期，想增大销量。
削弱。方案不可行，目的达不到。利润=销量*单价。打折的时候单价减少，销量增加不足就会削弱结论，目的达不到，利润减少。The discount-sale cannot Even the sales increase, the price decreased and cannot overrun previous profits.

2. 28’
P：previous study: consume chocolate will increase the probability of heart disease
P: new study: eat choco will not increase HD.
C: consumption of choco will increase
【二人对话】观点1：吃巧克力会增加心脏病患病。观点2：之巧克力不会增加。所以观点2被知道以后，巧克力消费会增加。（因果：因为吃巧克力不会增加心脏病，所以巧克力消费增加。）
Gap：大家相信新观点。/ 得知巧克力和HD无关，一定会吃巧克力。The new study is convincing. / the new study will be widely accepted by public. / after the prove of the new study, people will definitely go to buy choco.

3. 29’
P：the climate at the end of P is warm and dried.
P: most large mammals extinct, while smaller mammals survived
【差异】P时期气候温暖干燥，大型哺乳动物灭绝，但是小型的活下来了。
解释：一个可以说明大的死了小的没事的原因。比如大的新城代谢快，需要水多，而干燥没那么多水。总之提供一个合理原因。
Some reasons kill the large animals but not affect the small animals,

4. 1’17
P：when profits are more than 10 percent of the return, bonus will be awarded.
P: higher profits----higher bonus.
C: bonus in recession will be lower than the bonus in peak period
【因果】当p>1.1R---bonus, profit越大—bonus越大。所以recession bonus<peak bonus. Gap就是默认recession profits< peak profits