gwd-12-38

麻集爱

Q38:

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occur irregularly in East Africa, several years apart.  When outbreaks do occur, they kill thousands of cattle.  A livestock vaccine against the disease exists but is rarely used.  It is too expensive for farmers to use routinely, and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little.  Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the experts’ prediction?

1. Rift Valley fever is spread by mosquitoes, but each outbreak is so widespread that it is impractical to control it by using insecticides.


2. When an outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurs, unaffected countries often refuse to import livestock from the countries affected by the outbreak.


3. It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.
   



4. Many cattle farmers in East Africa are nomadic or live in remote villages, and such farmers, who have little access to modern veterinary medicine, are particularly hard hit by outbreaks of Rift Valley fever.


5. Recently published research has shown that certain identifiable climatic conditions are almost invariably followed, within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

   Answer:

我选不出答案。　天那，怎么能有这样的事情？！

kingsoft

   选E

   原文推论：1）疫苗昂贵，2）疫苗使用一个月以后才生效（发病后使用效用不大）——》疫苗不常用

                     专家却说：以后这个疫苗会广泛应用，问支持专家

   E说那种病之前的2-5个月的天气条件几乎不变，就是说在这种病来之前的2-5月就可知道这种病即将爆发，然后就能用疫苗

    其他选项无关

麻集爱

within two to five months, by an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.　

  E说那种病之前的2-5个月的天气条件几乎不变，就是说在这种病来之前的2-5月就可知道这种病即将爆发，然后就能用疫苗　

是这样翻译吗？。　谢谢了kingsoft　。

cranberry

agree

ReedSong

同意选E，但并不是“那种病之前的2-5个月的天气条件几乎不变”，而是说“有一种可识别的天气条件，（只要这种天气条件发生）2－5个月后就一定会爆发Rift Valley fever。

bose0008

Reasoning: and since it is not effective until a month after vaccination, administering it after an outbreak begins helps very little.

Conclusion:  Nevertheless, experts predict that use of the vaccine will increase significantly within the next few years.

it means that vaccines must be used at least one month before the outbreak. the supporting answer must be able to tell, the experts now must be able to (but couldn't in the past) predict the outbreak and use the vaccine at least one month before it happens.

爱维的天

以下是引用ReedSong在2004-7-11 12:53:00的发言：
同意选E，但并不是“那种病之前的2-5个月的天气条件几乎不变”，而是说“有一种可识别的天气条件，（只要这种天气条件发生）2－5个月后就一定会爆发Rift Valley fever。

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-1-16 12:26:09编辑过]

waway1984

以下是引用kingsoft在2004-6-13 14:03:00的发言：

   选E

   原文推论：1）疫苗昂贵，2）疫苗使用一个月以后才生效（发病后使用效用不大）——》疫苗不常用

                     专家却说：以后这个疫苗会广泛应用，问支持专家

   有一种可识别的天气条件，（只要这种天气条件发生）2－5个月后就一定会爆发Rift Valley fever。     其他选项无关

这个选项怎么就支持专家了呢？就算是2-5个月以后爆发了这个FEVER，疫苗那么贵，farmer还是用不起啊！

怎么回事呢？

如果只从一个角度就可以支持专家的话，那么C选项

It would take less than a month for producers of the vaccine to adjust their production operations to cope with a large increase in demand.

是不是可以说从1）疫苗昂贵，这个角度支持了呢？因为producers增加了产量，价格降低了，farmer就可以用的啦！（当然这里得用上common sense，就是大量的production必定会使价格下降）

不过似乎也不对

反正我是不明白啦

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-2-20 21:07:57编辑过]

skyguard2000

产量增加并不一定导致价格下降，如果在一个充分竞争的市场（多卖方，多买方）中有可能是这样，但如果疫苗是某厂家的专利产品，一般不会降价。而且adjust their production operations  不一定是增加总产量，有可能是增加对某国供货的分厂的产量，而减少其他分厂的产量。

华籍美人

以下是引用kingsoft在2004-6-13 14:03:00的发言：

   选E

   原文推论：1）疫苗昂贵，2）疫苗使用一个月以后才生效（发病后使用效用不大）——》疫苗不常用

                     专家却说：以后这个疫苗会广泛应用，问支持专家

   E说那种病之前的2-5个月的天气条件几乎不变，就是说在这种病来之前的2-5月就可知道这种病即将爆发，然后就能用疫苗

    其他选项无关

要support专家的观点，有两种途径：一是对条件1的否定，即价格不贵，二是对条件２的否定，即一个月前就可以避免其作用要在一个月后才能发挥的缺点，本题E答案是对２的取非加强。