GWD-10-Q40

gmatbiguo

Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increase in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and being raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?
A.    The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several year and is expected to continue to climb.
B.    Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.
C.    In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.
D.    Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
E.    The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.
答案选B，但是讲杀虫剂跟要削弱的内容感觉无关啊。我选了C，需求没有增加，如果供应增加，价格还是会下降的，正好削弱啊。NN看看我的思维问题在哪？

xibao

注意看一下 原文的前提：Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increase in the price of cotton on the world market.

Insect infestation=>dramatic increase in price

B如果很便宜的新型农药可以很好的抑制害虫，那么insect infestation就不存在了，dramatic increase in price更不可能了，所以想take advantage of the high price也不可能

至于你说的C, 需求不需要增加啊，有害虫总供应一开是因为害虫是减少了好多，就算你改种cotton，还是有可能有害虫的总供应<没有害虫的总供应，不能确定的。

我一开始选的D, 其实和higher prices没什么关系。。

yangmars

我想请问下D为什么是无关呢？虽然D长得很无关，但是想想它的话，如果种的人冲着高价去的，但是人们都不买，它怎么增加利润啊？D到底哪里无关了，求解答……

tcz2515

我想请问下D为什么是无关呢？虽然D长得很无关，但是想想它的话，如果种的人冲着高价去的，但是人们都不买，它怎么增加利润啊？D到底哪里无关了，求解答……

-- by 会员 yangmars (2011/8/5 9:30:32)

LS可以再仔细看看D的内容。cotton goods 并不是 cotton，所以cotton goods的价格贵并不一定意味着cotton的价格贵，两者之间并没有必然的联系。也就是说消费者是否愿意高价买棉花制品并不一定影响棉花种植者的利润，棉花制品的价格高有可能是因为制造费用昂贵。

不知道这么说能不能好理解一点儿~~

墨月雪

Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increase in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and being raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?
A.    The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several year and is expected to continue to climb.
B.    Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.
C.    In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.
D.    Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
E.    The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.
答案选B，但是讲杀虫剂跟要削弱的内容感觉无关啊。我选了C，需求没有增加，如果供应增加，价格还是会下降的，正好削弱啊。NN看看我的思维问题在哪？

-- by 会员 gmatbiguo (2011/5/6 20:24:52)

这个题挺经典的..涉及到一个主论据的问题..是这样的..
insect泛滥  导出  cotton的价格up  导出  种植cotton就会income up..
这个显然是一个多论据架构..这个时候要抓主论据..也就是根本性的论据..在本题中根本的论据是昆虫泛滥..因为从这里可以导出其他论据..它是文章逻辑链的起源..
逻辑题的正解一定要与主论据相关..所以直接朝着与insect有关的选项去就可以..
再次结合削弱题的本质..就是主论据即使成立了..结论也不一定成立..解释起来就是..
就算昆虫感染泛滥了..也推不出income up..因为一种杀虫剂有效的遏制了这种虫害...抽象的说就是另外一个信息削弱了论据的力度..
下面说说为什么C不对..C是一个典型的引入无关时间变量的选项..  in the past several years..而原文给的时间是the next several years..
这种错误还是蛮典型的..不知楼主明白了不?呵呵~

vivian2011

大家是不是都忽略了B里面是说In the PAST several years.讲过去的事情和未来的prediction有什么关系啊...
另外想问A选项，我知道是基于第一句话，但是有虫害--》有价格提升 不等于 无虫害--》无价格提升吧？,有了杀虫剂，不一定价格就会跌吧？从原文infer不出来啊...

myaska

原文的意思就是因为虫害过度，导致部分地区棉花大量减产，棉花价格迅速上涨

如果现在有一种杀虫剂，又便宜又好用，有效遏制了虫害，那么那些遭虫害而棉花减产的地区又会重新生产棉花，市场上棉花供应回到以前水平，棉花价格回落。

如果这时还有人继续加入这个市场，那么价格很可能继续下跌。。。

我是这么理解的。。。

leewonting

今天真真正正的明白了！！！

曳烛

补充下D，不但cotton goods有问题，而且原文说的是higher prices than they are NOW paying。。但是明显现在的价格可能已经很高了。。。所以转种棉花还是可能有利可图的