og12 87 结论是否有歧义？D选项

jiaying52

87. In the United States, of the people who moved from one state to another when they retired, the percentage who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years. Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, these declines are likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses and therefore on the economy of Florida.Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument given?
(A) People who moved from one state to another when they retired moved a greater distance, on average, last year than such people did ten years ago.
(B) People were more likely to retire to North Carolina from another state last year than people were ten years ago.
(C) The number of people who moved from one state to another when they retired has increased signi? cantly over the past ten years.
(D) The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.
(E) Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.

能理解C选项，但是感觉结论有歧义Since many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees, these declines are likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses and therefore on the economy of Florida
these declines指的是退休后搬到F的去的人的比例减少-Flordia经济衰退。
那D选项的意思是退休后离开F的人增加（同样是退休人员人数减少）-Flordia经济衰退
否定了是搬迁去F的人比例的减少引起的。也算undermine啊？
感觉结论有歧义，不懂，求教！

jiaying52

up

sdcar2010

Hehe.  Here the comparison is between this year and last year.  Who cares about the number of retirees a decade ago!

小福娃欢欢

我刚做完这道题，我用楼主的思路想了一下，在这道题目里面，佛罗里达经济衰退是一个可能性。题目中说"are likely to have a noticeable .......“
那么如果这道题说，已知佛州经济衰退，并且正好退休去的人比例少了。结论，正是因为退休去的人少了才引起经济衰退。那么D选项中说的离开的人多，确实是另外一种可能。

拙见，希望能给你些启示。

sdcar2010

Oops.  The question does compare data of a decade ago. My bad.

D is a strengthener since it supports the notion that retirees are not coming to FL. The question ask for a weakener. Thus, D is wrong.

qqbabyrebecca

题目上说的是在过去十年里面retire to Florida 的人的百分比变少了 D答案说过去十年里MOVE 的人数增加了 那么那个百分比下的人数也增加了 那样也就是否定了后面结论的前提 就是WEAKEN了
这是我理解的 不知道是不是完全对 哈哈

jiaying52

题目上说的是在过去十年里面retire to Florida 的人的百分比变少了 D答案说过去十年里MOVE 的人数增加了 那么那个百分比下的人数也增加了 那样也就是否定了后面结论的前提 就是WEAKEN了
这是我理解的 不知道是不是完全对 哈哈

-- by 会员 qqbabyrebecca (2011/4/29 17:11:06)

D选项说的是退休离开（即retire, move out)的人，和题干中说retire, move in是两个不同的概念哦。这两个百分比没有什么对应关系。Thanks any way.

jiaying52

Oops.  The question does compare data of a decade ago. My bad.

D is a strengthener since it supports the notion that retirees are not coming to FL. The question ask for a weakener. Thus, D is wrong.

-- by 会员 sdcar2010 (2011/4/29 12:12:21)

sdcar NN, D说的是退休后move out的人吧（就是原来住在这个地方的人） 应该不等于 retirees  who is coming to move in.

jiaying52

我刚做完这道题，我用楼主的思路想了一下，在这道题目里面，佛罗里达经济衰退是一个可能性。题目中说"are likely to have a noticeable .......“
那么如果这道题说，已知佛州经济衰退，并且正好退休去的人比例少了。结论，正是因为退休去的人少了才引起经济衰退。那么D选项中说的离开的人多，确实是另外一种可能。

拙见，希望能给你些启示。

-- by 会员 小福娃欢欢 (2011/4/29 6:36:24)

谢谢福娃，我觉得你讲的就是我想问的-对题干的理解： 但是我不理解 题干是可能性，还是事实的区别是什么？为什么这两种解题的思路会不一样呢？thanks again

qqbabyrebecca

可能是我没有仔细看原文用的文字
再表达一下我的观点吧 希望能有点用
原文之前说了百分比的下降 但是后面提到的却是“these decline"
D选项说明了百分比的下降不一定会导致decline
呵呵 你在想想 看能不能帮你想通啦~~