完全晕死的一道题 NN们 帮忙呀

呼啸700

33: GWD-29-Q38
In the past, every ten-percentage-point increase in cigarette prices in the country of Coponia has decreased per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent.Coponia is about to raise taxes on cigarettes by 9 cents per pack.The average price of cigarettes in Coponia is and has been for more than a year 90 cents per pack.So the tax hike stands an excellent chance of reducing per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?

1. Tobacco companies are unlikely to reduce their profit per pack of cigarettes to avoid an increase in the cost per pack to consumers in Coponia.（答案）
   
   
2. Previous increases in cigarette prices in Coponia have generally been due to increases in taxes on cigarettes.
   
   
3. Any decrease in per capita sales of cigarettes in Coponia will result mainly from an increase in the number of people who quit smoking entirely.
   
   
4. At present, the price of a pack of cigarettes in Coponia includes taxes that amount to less than ten percent of the total selling price.
   
   
5. The number of people in Coponia who smoke cigarettes has remained relatively constant for the past several years.
   
   这个题在限时做题的时候 完全混乱了 NN们有什么好的分析思路 帮帮忙
   
   

sdcar2010

Necessary assumption. Use negation. If you negate A, then the tabacco companies will reduce the profit of the cigaretees, thus, reduce the price thereof to conteract the increase in tax. Then the overal price increase per pack might be less than 10%, the magic number to reduce cigarette sales. Then the argument falls apart.

larkspur

该题的假设就是说烟草制造商会把增加的税转嫁到消费者身上，A选项说烟草公司不会通过减少利润来避免增加消费者消费一包的成本，与假设意思一致，所以价格会上升，sale会下降

yychole

试试看排除法。我觉得后面四个是完全无关的，就第一个似乎还靠谱点。