求助OG12 CR-78

葛佳

78.    A recent report determined that although only 3 percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, 33 percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their
vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(A)    Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.
(B)    Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.
(C)    The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.
(D)    Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.
(E)    Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.

mikeandy

选C 吧，我也是猜的~

crazyxxx

p1: 3%的人有雷达
p2: 33%的被罚超速( ticketed for exceeding the speed limit )的人有雷达
c: 有雷达的人比没有的人更容易经常超速(exceed the speed limit )

there's a gap between "ticketed for exceeding the speed limit" and "exceed the speed limit".个人理解...

葛佳

选C 吧，我也是猜的~

-- by 会员 mikeandy (2010/5/27 23:36:58)

答案是B
个人愚见：
c中the number 无关 题目问的是超速的可能性啊
A 与原文说反了 equip with radar 超速 less likely than without radar 原文是最后一句 more likely
D次数无关
E other state 没有提及
我是用排除法。
但是不会正推，请指教。

amethyst9064

哈哈 我跟你想得一样

选C 吧，我也是猜的~

-- by 会员 mikeandy (2010/5/27 23:36:58)

答案是B
个人愚见：
c中the number 无关 题目问的是超速的可能性啊
A 与原文说反了 equip with radar 超速 less likely than without radar 原文是最后一句 more likely
D次数无关
E other state 没有提及
我是用排除法。
但是不会正推，请指教。

-- by 会员 葛佳 (2010/5/28 8:04:06)

天使追梦

Thx crazyxxx~

Zoil

想了很久这个问题。似乎网上也没有找到令人满意的答案。我说一下自己的推理。
首先一共是3%的车装了radar detector，97%的没装。假设为300辆和9700辆。
然后因超速被开罚单的车有33%装了radar detector，67%的没装。假设为33辆和67辆。
那么什么能推出装了radar detector的车更经常超速呢？


B说因超速被开罚单的车会更经常超速
那么在300辆装了radar detector的车里，有33辆被开罚单，这33辆会更经常超速，为11%
在9700辆没装radar detector的车里，有67辆被开罚单，这67辆会更经常超速，为0.7%


很明显，可以得到装了radar detector的车更经常超速。


这题很绕，就算反向推也还是这个逻辑来推，不太直观。

719870465

我先给大家算道题，因为有不少人在解释里面误人子弟。
设一共有a量车，0.03a有雷达，0.97a没有。一共被罚b辆车（题目明确告诉我们是被罚的“车”，而不是被罚的“车次”）0.33b有雷达，0.67b没有雷达。计算如下
有雷达的超速罚单率是0.33b/0.03a，没有雷达的超速罚单率是0.67b/0.97a，约分（小学数学，不用我讲吧？）前者大于后者，所以得出结论，有雷达的车更容易超速。
简单的逻辑是，有雷达的车超速罚单率高→有雷达的车容易超速
为什么超速罚单率高就代表车容易超速呢？这个不一定吧？当然这是个很白痴的问题，为什么GDP高就代表综合国力强？为什么收视率高就代表人们喜欢？等等。所以B选项说超速罚单率高就代表车容易超速，你没的质疑，因为人家说了，就是！就是！就是！总不能去质疑选项中所说的是不是真的吧？呵呵，那就成了盗梦空间，梦中有梦了~ok，如果觉得我说的是正确的请回复我一下。错了的话，我们再讨论。

jbc88

在这道题里，似乎取非然后削弱论点这招失灵了啊！！

fielcy

我也觉得这题目和数字无关
gap在于regularly这个词
A：装了雷达的车子会因为超速而罚款--->B:装了雷达的车子会更加regularly超速
就像是说你迟到了一次然后就因此判断你是个会经常会迟到的人
assumption就是要把这个gap填起来
就是说被超速罚款就是等于经常超速