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摘一段我觉得很清楚的解释
The first describes the circumstance that the argument as a whole seeks to explain - the entire argument is explaining a circumstance. The first bold statement itself is not doing it.
It only explains why people are relieved - the conclusion which the argument questions.
the second gives the explanation that the argument seeks to establish. - the explanation that the argument would establish would be the conclusion endorsed by the argument. The second statement is a premise, not a conclusion endorsed by the argument. It supporting 'reasoning is overoptimistic'.
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