MY TIPs：如果关心国内股市汇市的朋友，应该早为这个消息蠢蠢欲动了吧。在国外的朋友可以考虑将闲置的美元（如为明年上学预留的钱）汇入国内的亲朋，让其转为人民币资产，明年转回，可以起到套期保值的作用。如果具有短线风险偏好的人，还可以将人民币投入国内A股（H股有点太疯了），短期（两会前后）应有一定涨幅，如果人民币升值的计划（如盯住一揽子货币）正式实施，国内股市还会有不错涨幅。搞得好，就不仅仅是保值，明年的生活费和回国探亲费都挣出来了。
China has agreed to receive a delegation of US Treasury officials within weeks to discuss how Beijing might inject flexibility into its rigid exchange rate system. The meeting comes as speculation over the future of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, intensifies.
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The visit does not signify that Beijing is preparing an imminent adjustment of the effective currency peg by which the renminbi has been held at 8.28 to the US dollar for years. But it does mean the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank, feels the need to take technical advice on how its exchange mechanism could be made more flexible, officials say.
The consultation, if it goes ahead as planned, will also mark the implementation of promises that Beijing made to John Snow, US Treasury secretary, last year. Foreign diplomats said that, as well as receiving advice, the Chinese side might use the meeting to explain the risks and complexities of any shift in exchange rate policy.
Speculation within and beyond China over the future of the renminbi has intensified this week following a report in the China Business Post, a semi-official newspaper, that the PBoC was preparing to allow a 5 per cent appreciation in the renminbi's value against the US dollar.
This was strenuously denied by the PBoC but comment on the advantages of an appreciation has emerged in the official press this week, with academics arguing that a stronger currency would cheapen the bill China pays for its voracious imports of raw materials and fuel. The PBoC has said for several months that it plans to "perfect its exchange rate mechanism" and "keep the renminbi basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level". Analysts interpret these words as meaning that the central bank will - one day - allow the currency to fluctuate in a wider band, reflecting market forces more than it does.
There has not been an obvious increase recently in economic pressures on the PBoC to act. After problems "sterilising" the impact of US dollar inflows in December, the PBoC has regained its poise and open market operations are progressing smoothly, officials say.
Trade flows suggest that pressure for a revaluation of the renminbi may be diminishing. Beijing announced this week its first trade deficit for 10 months in January, posting a shortfall of $20m (?5.6m, £10.5m). This figure is regarded as too much affected by one-off factors to be indicative of any trend, economists say.
Internationally, pressure on China to drop the renminbi's peg to the US dollar appears to have grown. The G7 group of industrialised nations called on "major countries or economic areas" that lack exchange rate flexibility to "promote smooth and widespread adjustments . . . based on market mechanisms".
"We are happy with the exchange rate as it is," said one Chinese financial official. "We see no economic reason to change it."
Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, said China would try to keep the growth in money supply to 17 per cent this year, down from 19.8 per cent during 2003. This would be matched by slowing loan growth this year, said Wen Jiabao, premier.
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发表于 2004-2-12 14:21:00
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