一道经典题——可是偶就是不明白

timetoleave

A recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them.  Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

 

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

 

(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.

(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.

(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.

(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report.

(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.

为啥选B？哪位可以解释一下？谢谢！

florafox

我只是读完感觉只能选B，可是又不觉得B解释了什么。。。等待高人来分析这个题目

xun

three percent of drivers 。。。

thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed

所以这两句主语不是一个东西，第二个主语是vehicles按人次说。最后conclusion是联起来。

第二句说的是equiped drivers犯的事总的偏多

这个原因要么是他们犯事的比例高，要么是他们单人屡教不改，要么是二者都有

最后结论落实到第二种解释，

所以呢，就要加一条，总的来说，犯过事的就爱屡教不改。

这样即使第一种解释成立，第二种解释也同样正确

当然如果第一种解释不成立，那第二种解释就是唯一解释，更成立。

这题真够绕的哎

joe_gross

假设：被罚款的车一定是经常超速。

因为有radar detector的车容易被被查出来超速，所以他们容易被罚款。原文的错误结论基于：被罚款的一定是经常超速的。而事实上也有能别的车超的还厉害，没查出来而已。

理解最重要，别听那些一套套理论的瞎扯，看完以后似懂非懂

xun

那楼上question被抓的概率，要选哪项？

hunteryin

前面说的是 all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them,注意这里是"exceeding the speed limit" ,而到了后面成了"exceed the speed limit regularly",注意多了个"regularly"

前提和推论有GAP,需要用假设连接,只有B说了 exceed the speed limit regularly ,选B

xun

ls就是联桥法吗？佩服啊

joe_gross

简单的问题一定要复杂化。。。speechless。。。。。懒得鸟你们了，我闪~

xncunk

恩 是架桥法

evidence： 33%超速的车带雷达

concludion：带雷达的车经常超速（regularly）

 

gap也就是assumption： 超速--经常超速  ---B