谁能帮忙解答这道CR题？

palmbeach

    If the unfriendly takeover of Downey Industries by Farkow International is allowed, industry analysts generally agree that Farkow will be saddled with so much debt that it will be forced to triple the price of ball bearings, Downey抯 primary product. Downey maintains the top market position in the manufacture of ball bearings, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all ball bearings produced. The takeover could lead to a crisis for industries that depend on ball bearings, and thus contribute to the weakening of the economy.Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?    
              
A.Farkow International may face financial ruin if the acquisition of Downey is blocked.    
B.Downey Industries has legislative recourse to delay the takeover, which could alter the amount of debt incurred by Farkow International.    

C.With the infusion of a relatively minor capital investment, it may be possible for Farkow International to begin producing its own ball bearings, altering Downey抯 market share significantly.    

D.The profit margin for ball bearings is considerably less than that for Downey抯 other products.    

E.In the event of a takeover of Downey Industries, smaller companies that produce ball bearings will expand to satisfy the market for cheaper ball bearings.      
    
答案是D，为始末？    

must750

I think the answer is E.

The line of reasoning is:
takeover => increase in price => crisis for dependent industries & weakening of economy
But if small companies expand to provide cheaper products, the increase in price will not happen for the whole market.

2love2live

I will choose E too.

晓晓

嗯，选E可能因为以下原因
The line of reasoning is:
takeover of downey industries  => increase the price of ball bearings ,the primary product of downey industries  => crisis for dependent industries & weakening of economy

meanwhile, since "the profit margin for ball bearings is considerably less than that for downey's other products" => the price of downey's other products is more likely to be enhanced rather than the  price of ball bearings

as to E
smaller companies accounting only 1/3 of the market share, can only do sth marginal to the whole ball bearings market

I'm not quite sure about the above, but hope  it'll be help  ^-^

深海的小美人鱼

选D. 因为如果ball bear的利润很小的话，升高价钱也是没有太大益处的。在这里要主意答案和原文的紧密关系。即使e说的有道理， 可是已经out of scope.尤其是即使小公司可以壮大，也不是一朝就可以做成的，无法对原文的结论进行削弱，如果直接削弱了原因，才是最好的答案。
以后这样的帖子请贴到逻辑区。

2love2live

以下是引用深海的小美人鱼在2004-1-16 6:30:00的发言：
选D. 因为如果ball bear的利润很小的话，升高价钱也是没有太大益处的。

但是升高价钱已经是定论-因为“industry analysts generally agree “ - “it will be forced to triple the price “

晓晓

可是，按照题意看来，好像题中的最后结论也是属于  general agreement of  industry analysts 吧？因此，不能说升高价钱是定论   ^-^

2love2live

我觉得：

论据：if takeover allowed, farkow will be forced to triple it's prices on ball bearings (不是结论）
论据：downey dominates the market of ball bearings - downey's primary product
结论：takeover is a nightmare for ball bearings dependent industries, thus weakening the economy.

D in itself is contrary to one of the premise - downey's primary product is the one with least profit margin.？？

also - for D to make any sense - we need to infer too much from D - which is where ETS usually sets traps, on the contrary - the logic presented in E is more straightforward.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-1-19 22:47:19编辑过]