财政赤字引起美元贬值题-争议

Prison_Break

蓝皮书 Page 514 第61题
                

61. The recent decline in the value of the dollar was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth in the coming year. But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government’s huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion about how to prevent future currency declines?

(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.

(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.

(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic growth.

(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar’s value.

(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth sometimes trigger declines in currency value.

正确答案: D/沸沸的答案

我的答案是 B 推断如下

原文论断/Status: government’s huge budget deficit-> a prediction of slower economic growth-> decline in the value of the dollar.

问题: 削弱/weaken: 降低财政赤字防止美元贬值=降低财政赤字无法防止美元贬值

A 抬杠

B 正确

C 排除不了a prediction of slower economic growth-> decline in the value of the dollar.

D 同样排除不了government’s huge budget deficit-> a prediction of slower economic growth

E 错

Jolin_hz

D正确

Prison_Break

Pls explain

happyapt2006

原文论断/Status: government’s huge budget deficit-> a prediction of slower economic growth-> decline in the value of the dollar

我觉得你这个结论不够恰当，前面两个条件不是推出关系，也就是说不是因为“budget deficit”导致“prediction”然后...，而是“pridiction”+"budget deficit"才能引起‘decline ... dollar’

本题应当属于前提结论型

B的错误原因：不相关。它是说'budget deficit'不能引起‘pridiction’与他俩是不是能引起‘decline...dollar’有什么关系呢？（再退一步说就算不能引起，是想说明两者不能同时发生吗？想削弱前提？显然不行吧？）

而D很明白地说，没有‘deficit’，‘predictions’照样导致了‘decline’，将前提破坏。所以正确

以前讨论也挺多，参见http://forum.chasedream.com/dispbbs.asp?BoardID=24&ID=46479