[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

Carolineccc

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Carolineccc

Day 104
1.P: 一个竞选人获得州长提名了。上一任提名成为州长了
  C：这个获得提名的人赢得可能性很大
  Weaken: 获得提名的不止一人
2.P：柑橘园里晚上经常掉柑橘，产量减少，一个政府想要开发橘园旁的沼泽地来种柑橘
  C：农民纷纷反对
  Reason: 沼泽地不适合种柑橘/ 沼泽地对现在的橘园有用
3.P: M的犯罪率比四年前高了60%，而P的犯罪率只增长了10%
  C：M的居民比P的更容易成为罪犯
  D

wlive2022

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flawflaw 就是两者不可类比

2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
比较简单

3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.  

典型的讨论变化时 需要比较基数才知道变化大小

erichh317

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slowdiving

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slowdiving

Day104
1.答案猜测：flaw
之前的人赢除了因为提名，还有别的因素，比如 自身实力过硬 ✅
答案补充：
这里答案给的是一种genera的错误定义，认为all the things are equal
2.答案猜测：为什么农民反对把wetland也开发成柑橘低？
a.经济原因：wetland有别的更高收入的作物或者产业/wetland不适合中柑橘/wetland开发的成本很高，会影响村民自身的经济收入
b.生态原因：wetland对当地的气候和生产有很大的好处，开发成果园后会破坏生态 ✅
补充：wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过快/就是说还是得回到橘子上来，说明对橘子的好处
3.flaw：只比较增长率，没有考虑到原来的基础
D.四年前的犯罪率 ✅

断了的弦

kkk

断了的弦

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
这是类比关系，可能有他因削弱，例如提名州长人有不良声誉

2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
wetland 更易减产

3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.
d

佛系A子在線讀書

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luzitao630

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