[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

Shell_liang

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小连oooo

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Shell_liang

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

之前赢得不代表之后赢，候选人情况不一样呢



2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

农民反对政府开发wetland，开发wetland有什么副作用？比如影响柑橘产量啥的？



3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

M地犯罪率比之四年前高60%
P地犯罪率比之前高10%
=>M更危险

错误在哪？之前的基数不知道，选D

Severus.

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林limbo

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林limbo

DAY 104

1、解释题，找出A和之前提名人的不同，比如是否能够当选并不只受是否被提名这个因素影响（引入他因进行解释）
2、找wetland对于果园更重要的选项——如wetland的存在能够避免果园掉更多的果
3、D/需要知道这两个国家四年前的犯罪率分别是多少

Severus.

1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
前任州长提名的人是本身就获得了很高支持率的人
错误类比，认为去年发生的事情现在也能发生
2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
wetland掉的柑橘尤其多
wetland可以避免果园晚上的温度降的过低
3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.   D
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

petittomato

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