放狗

GGRONG

感谢cd，想起来东西了来放狗！数学挺全的了，但是做的时候注意坑，逻辑啥啥都忘光了，阅读碰上了factoring, 中央集权，可见光，还有底下这篇，阅读不要过度迷信jj，还是要自己认认真真自己看

740 V41 Q50 (不想再考了，太折磨人了）

P1: common sense, 地震的interval不可预测，但是L和B（我没记错的话）根据某个地方的六次地震（此处会考）预测出下一次是22年之后

P2:但是等了22年，这地震就没来，好气哦，证明这两人的理论是错的！另外还有个证据表明这两人理论是错的的是，一般大地震都是留下一些地理上的影响，这些影响可以帮助dated earthquake in the past（有题），然后有个人预测出来地震大概是222年还是啥，反正很长的一个时间，然后individual的个数是在32-332中间（记不清了，反正就是单次地震不可估，short term的难估，long term的可以估）最后说虽然Lfuzed后面这个人的理论，但是大部分人都觉得不管是long-term还是short-term的都不可估

fuyouzhishang

感谢楼主，吸吸楼主喜气！请问楼主是昨天考的吗？

木皆文

是今天考的吗

babyweezy

lz是昨天考的，群里面看到了~

木皆文

babyweezy 发表于 2019-10-8 10:35
lz是昨天考的，群里面看到了~

什么群啊

billyisfragile!

Lindh and Baker found that six earthquakes took place at intervals of approximately twenty-two years along a fifteen-mile section of the San Andreas fault, near the small town of Parkfield. According to their theory, the next quake of at least magnitude 6.0 near Parkfield should have struck by 1988; by the end of 1992 the probability for its occurrence should have reached 95 percent. Previous earthquakes in Parkfield were reported to have been preceded by many anomalous precursors. To detect precursors, more than twenty observational networks have been installed near Parkfield. As of this writing, however, the long-awaited Parkfield earthquake still has not been felt. The negative result of the Parkfield experiment has cast strong doubt on the idea that earthquakes are periodic. Evidence against earthquake cycles has also come from a relatively new field, call paleoseismology. Large earthquakes give rise to logical features such as fault scarps, landslides and soil liquefaction that can be exhumed and radiocarbondated hundreds or even thousands of years after the event. In 1989 the paleoseismologist Kerry E. Sieh of Caltech and his colleagues published a chronology of earthquakes at Pallett Creek, which lies along the San Andreas fault about thirty-five miles northeast of Los Angelas. They determined that the mean interval between ten earthquakes that took place in the past two millenniums was 132 years. But individual intervals ranged from forty-four to 332 years.

Lindh remains unfazed. "I think earthquake prediction is like working on an AIDS vaccine," he says. "You are not allowed to be pessimistic or optimistic." Robert Wesson, too, maintains that predictions can help mitigate hazards. But other seismologists take a hard line. Robert Geller vigirogously opposes any kind of forecast, insisting that neither short-term nor long-term predictions have a sound scientific basic. "The danger in basing government policy on such unsound predictions," he says "is that there is a tendency to assume that particular regions are especially dangerous. That has the effect of concentrating earthquake disaster mitigation efforts, rather than spreading them out over an entire region of similar geological and seismic type."

MJ-MJ

感谢分享！               

RicardoLEE

bzy! 发表于 2019-10-8 13:55
Lindh and Baker found that six earthquakes took place at intervals of approximately twenty-two years ...

感谢！