<求助>一个无法想清楚的OG19题

Cindylyu

【OG19-P547-662题】
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade Agency’s records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency’s projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro’s GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.


Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given?

  A Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
  B Prior to 1995，Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
  C The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
  D Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
  E The agency's five-year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

OA D

其他的都可以排除，但是我无法认证D的正确。 站在1994这个公布信息的时点，所有预测的准确性是在这个时点知晓的，在这个信息公布之前，虽然我们可以知道，对同一年的数据有两个不同的值，一个是五年预测，一个是前一年预测，所以有理由认为有一个是不准确的。但是没有办法确定都是五年预测不准确啊？所以在信息公布之前，我觉得是都无法确定的。

呜呜呜，哭唧唧，真的想不通，求求大神们救救我的脑子吧

kluivert

读起来真费脑
D 选项说 新的信息曝光前，agency 有理由认为一些 五年预测 是不准确的

这个是一定的

因为前面已经说了，The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro’s GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accuratel。
对于前一年的预测确是准确的 ...
举个例子， 预测1971-1975

1971 不知道
1972 不知道  但准确估计1971的数据
1973 不知道. 但准确估计1972
1974 不知道  但准确估计1973
1975 不知道  但准确估计1974
1976 准确估计1975 ,也就知道了1971-1975 年的数据，和自己之前预测的数据比比