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- -感觉你举的例子就削弱了 原文中的likely.
Premise: 犯罪的人99%写9骚, 不犯罪的人只有5%的9写的骚。
Conclusion: 写9 骚的人很可能是罪犯。
如果 犯罪人数占总人数小的话,就不likely了啊,相对于百分之99来说。
同感觉C是一个无关选项,不是一个他因。
感觉这题和Feifei的这题是一样的
94. When 100 people who have not used cocaine are tested for cocaine use, on average only 5 will test positive. By contrast, of every 100 people who have used cocaine 99 will test positive. Thus, when a randomly chosen group of people is tested for cocaine use, the vast people is tested for cocaine use, the vast majority of those who test positive will be people who have used cocaine.
A reasoning error in the argument is that the argument
A. attempts to infer a value judgment from purely factual premises
B. attributes to every member of the population the properties of the average member of the population
C. fails to take into account what proportion of the population have used cocaine
D. ignores the fact that some cocaine users do not test positive
E. advocates testing people for cocaine use when there is no reason to suspect that they have used cocaine (C)
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