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人间烟火Sue

最近找文章真是越来越艰难了，好得我是个不怕艰难的人，嘿嘿！

人间烟火Sue

【34】

     In this argument prudent investors are advised to stop investing in hotels and

investinstead in hospitals and nursing homes. The author cites two related trends—an

agingpopulation and a decline in hotel occupancy—as grounds for this advice. To

illustratethese trends, the author refers to another region of the country, where 20

percentof the population is over 65 years old and where occupancy rates in resorthotels

havedeclined significantly during the past six months. This argument is unconvincing

in acouple of important respects.

       In the first place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that the

populationas a whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy rate in general is declining.

Theexample cited, while suggestive of these trends, is insufficient to warranttheir truth

becausethere is no reason to believe that data drawn from this unnamed region is

representativeof the entire country. For example, if the region from which the data was

gatheredwas Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative. The reason for this is

obvious.Florida is populated by a disproportionate number of retired people over 65

years oldand is a very popular vacation destination during the winter months. Moreover,

resorthotel occupancy in Florida typically declines significantly during the summer

months.

       In the second place, the author has provided no evidence to support the claim that

thedecline in hotel occupancy is related to the aging of the population. Theauthor

appearsto believe that the decrease in occupancy rates at resort hotels is somehow

caused bythe increase in the number of people over age 65. However, the example cited

by theauthor establishes only that these two trends are correlated; it does notestablish

that thedecline in hotel occupancy is due to an increase in the number of people over

the age of 65.

       In conclusion, the author's investment advice is not based on sound reasoning. To

strengthenthe conclusion, the author must show that the trends were not restricted to a

particularregion of the country. The author must also show that the cause of the decline

in hotel occupancy is the increase in the number of people over 65.

人间烟火Sue

【35】

      In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from

Cola Locato Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will

increasewhile cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation

that thenumber of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years,

togetherwith statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating thatcoffee

consumptionincreases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age.

For threereasons, this financial advice may not be sound.

       First,the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged

over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as

well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate

greatlyover a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee

and cola,which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in

coffeeand cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the

value ofa coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.

       Secondly,the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee

consumption.Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years,

thenremain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of theincrease

inaverage age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor hasmore

opportunityto profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in thesecond,

assumingthe investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario

reflectsthe facts, the firm's recommendation would be ill-founded.

       Finally,the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola

consumptionwith age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of

thestudies. Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear tolend credibility

to theseclaims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in

theabsence of any information about them.

       In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early

BirdCoffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we

wouldneed more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need

more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.

人间烟火Sue

【36】

      In this argument the author concludes that West Cambria can increase revenues

andprovide better care to accident victims by disbanding the volunteer ambulance

serviceand hiring a commercial one. The author reasons that this change would yield

additionalrevenues because service fees could be imposed for ambulance use. The

authoralso reasons that the city would provide better service to accident victims

because acommercial service would respond more quickly to accidents than a volunteer

service would. The author's argument is flawed in two respects.

       To begin with, the author's plan for raising revenue for West Cambria is

questionable.Unless the service fees are considerable or the accident rate is extremely

high, itis unlikely that significant revenues will be raised by charging a fee for  

ambulanceuse. Consequently, revenue generation is not a good reason to disband the

volunteer service and hire a commercial service.

       Next, the author's belief that better patient care would be provided by a

commercialambulance service than by a volunteer service is based on insufficient

evidence.The fact that the commercial service in East Cambria has a lower average

responsetime than the volunteer service in West Cambria is insufficient evidence forthe

claimthat this will be the case for all commercial services. Moreover, the author's

recommendationdepends upon the assumption that response time to an accident is the

onlyfactor that influences patient care. Other pertinent factors—such as ambulance-

crew proficiency and training, and emergency equipment—are not considered.

       In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the

authorwould have to show that substantial revenue for the town could be raised by

chargingservice fees for ambulance use. Additionally, the author would have to provide

moreevidence to support the claim that commercial ambulance services provide better

patient care than volunteer services.

人间烟火Sue

【37】

      The author of Perks Company's business plan recommends that funds currently

spent onthe employee benefits package be redirected to either upgrade plant machinery

or buildan additional plant. The author reasons that offering employees a generous

packageof benefits and incentives year after year is no longer cost-effective given

currenthigh unemployment rates, and that Perks can attract and keep good employees

withoutsuch benefits and incentives. While this argument has some merit, its line of

reasoning requires close examination.

       To begin with, the author relies on the reasoning that it is unnecessary to pay

relativelyhigh wages during periods of high unemployment because the market will

supplymany good employees at lower rates of pay. While this reasoning may be sound

in ageneral sense, the particular industry that Perks is involved in may not be

representativeof unemployment levels generally. It is possible that relatively few

unemployedpeople have the type of qualifications that match job openings at Perks, if

this is the case, the claim that it is easier now to attract good employees at lowerwages

isill-founded.

       Secondly,the argument relies on the assumption that the cost-effectiveness of a

wagepolicy is determined solely by whatever wages a market can currently bear. This

assumption overlooks the peripheral costs of reducing or eliminating benefits. For

example,employee morale is likely to decline if Perks eliminates benefits; as a result,

some employees could become less productive, and others might quit. Even if Perkscan

readily replace those employees, training costs and lower productivity associated with

high turnover may outweigh any advantages of redirecting funds to plantconstruction.

Moreover,because the recommended reduction in benefits is intended to fund the

retrofitting of an entire plant or the building of a new one, the reduction would

presumably be a sizable one; consequently, the turnover costs associated with the

reduction might be very high indeed.

       In conclusion, this argument is not convincing, since it unfairly assumes that a

broad employment statistic applies to one specific industry, and since it ignores the

disadvantages of implementing the plan. Accordingly, I would suspend judgment about

the recommendation until the author shows that unemployment in Parks' industry is

high anduntil the author produces a thorough cost-benefit analysis of the proposed plan.

人间烟火Sue

首先祝大家鸡年大吉大利，新春快乐！

人间烟火Sue

【38】

         In this argument the author concludes that the Easy Credit Company would gain

several advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-

known environmental organization in exchange for the use of the organization's logoon

their credit card. The author reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent pollthat

shows widespread public concern about environmental issues. Among the advantages of

this policy, the author foresees an increase in credit card use by existing customers,the

ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability to attract new customers.While the

author'sargument has some merit, it suffers from two critical problems.

       To begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo

is sought is concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows

widespread concern. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It is

possible that very few credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the

organization'sareas of concern; if so, then it is unlikely that the organization's logo

would attract much business for the Easy Credit Company.

       Next,the author assumes that the public's concern about environmental issues

willresult in its taking steps to do something about the problem—in this case, touse the

EasyCredit Company credit card. This assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to

experience.Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a

particular cause will choose a more direct means of expressing their concern.

       In conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen

theargument, the author must show a positive link between the environmental issues

aboutwhich the public has expressed concern and the issues with which thisparticular

environmentalorganization is concerned. In addition, the author must provide evidence

tosupport the assumption that concern about a problem will cause people to do

something about the problem.

人间烟火Sue

【39】

     The  financial-planning office at Fern Valley University concludes that it is

necessaryto initiate a fund-raising campaign among alumni that will enable the

universityto expand the range of subjects it offers and increase the size of its library

facilities.It: argument is based on a five-year decline in enrollments and admission

applicationstogether with the claim that students cite poor teaching and inadequate

libraryresources as their chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern Valley. The

conclusion of the financial-planning office is not strongly supported by the reasons

given.

       To begin with, this argument depends on the assumption that providing a greater

range ofsubjects and a larger library will alleviate the students' chief sources of

dissatisfaction.However, the students have not complained about inadequate course

offeringsor about the size of the library; their complaint is that the existing coursesare

poorlytaught and that library resources are inadequate. Offering more kinds ofclasses

does notimprove teaching quality, and increasing a library's size does nothing to

enhanceits holdings, or resources. Accordingly, the recommendation does not bear

directly on the problem as stated.

       Secondly,the proposal unfairly assumes that the recent enrollment and application

decline was caused by poor teaching and inadequate library resources. It is equally

possible that all colleges, regardless of teaching quality and library resources, have

experience dsimilar declines. These declines may have been due to unrelated factors,

such asunfavorable economic conditions, or an increase in high-paying computer jobs

not requiring a college education.

       Thirdly,the author provides no support for the claim that students are dissatisfied

with the teaching and library resources at Fern Valley. It is possible that the claim is

based onhearsay or on scant anecdotal evidence. Without more information about the

basis ofthe claim, we cannot be sure that the financial-planning office is addressingthe

real problems.

       In conclusion, the advice of the financial planning office is not well supported.To

strengthen the argument, the planning office must provide evidence that students are

dissatisfied with the range of subjects and with the library's size, and that this

dissatisfaction is the cause of the recent decline in enrollment and the number of

admission applications. To better assess the argument as it stands, we would need to

know whether the students' attitudes were measured in a reliable, scientific manner.

人间烟火Sue

【40】

      This newsletter article claims that Professor Taylor's foreign-language program at

JonesUniversity is a model of foreign language instruction. This conclusion is basedon

a studyin which foreign language tests were given to students at 25 otheruniversities.

The studyshows that first-year language students at Jones speak more fluently after just

10 to 20weeks in the program than do 90 percent of foreign-language majors at other

collegesat graduation. Despite these impressive statistics, I am unconvinced by this

argument for two reasons.

       To begin with, the assumption here is that students from Professor Taylor's

programhave learned more than foreign language students at other universities.

However,we are not given enough information about the study to be sure that this

comparisonis reliable. For example, the article does not tell us whether the foreign

languagestudents at Jones were given the tests; it only reports that the tests inquestion

were"given to students at 25 other colleges." If Jones students were nottested, then no

basisexists for comparing them to students at the other universities. In addition,the

articledoes not indicate whether students at all the universities, including Jones,were

given the same tests. If not, then again no basis exists for the comparison.

       Furthermore, we cannot tell from this article whether the universities in the study,

or their students, are comparable in other ways. For instance, Jones might be a

prestigious university that draws its students from the top echelon of high school

graduates,while the other universities are lower-ranked schools with more lenient

admission requirements. In this event, the study wouldn't tell us much about Professor

Taylor's program, for the proficiency of his students might be a function of their

superior talent and intelligence.

       In conclusion, the statistics cited in the article offer little support for the claim

about Taylor's program. To strengthen the argument, the author must show that the

universities in the study, including Jones, were comparable in other ways, that their

foreignlanguage students were tested identically, and that Taylor's program was the

only important difference between students tested at Jones and those tested at theother

universities.

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