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人间烟火Sue

      【18】

      Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged

peopleover the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market forall

peopleseeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines.Moreover,

theauthor argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had

anespecially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trendsportend better

timesahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important

respects.

       First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people

over thenext decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who

attendcollege during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no

means acertainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade

would certainly nullify this expectation.

       Second,even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the

additionalassumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in

teachingpositions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teachingspecialties

are ingreater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionatenumber of

teachingpositions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some

fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in thefuture.

       Finally,little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates

in thefuture based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information

about thereasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding

teachingjobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable,

however,that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the

past, themere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure thatWaymarsh

graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.

       In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the

authormust provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an

increasein the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects

forWaymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no

idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.

Lucy07569

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人间烟火Sue

【19】

      This ad recommends non-prescription Acid-Ease over non-prescription Pepticaid

forrelief of excess stomach acid. The only reason offered is that doctors havewritten 76

millionmore prescriptions for the full-strength prescription form of Acid-Ease thanfor

full-strengthPepticaid. While this reason is relevant, and provides some grounds for

preferringAcid-Ease over Pepticaid, it is insufficient as it stands because it depends on

three unwarranted assumptions.

       The first assumption is that the prescription form of Acid-Ease is more popular

amongdoctors. But this might not be the case, even though doctors have written 76

millionmore prescriptions for Acid-Ease. Acid-Ease may have been available for

severalmore years than Pepticaid; and in the years when both products were available,

Pepticaid might have actually been prescribed more often than Acid-Ease.

       The second assumption is that doctors prefer the prescription form of Acid-Ease

for thereason that it is in fact more effective at relieving excess stomach acid.However,

doctorsmay have preferred Acid-Ease for reasons other than its effectiveness. Perhaps

Acid-Easeis produced by a larger, more familiar drug company or by one that

distributesmore free samples. For that matter, the medical community may have simply

beenmistaken in thinking that Acid-Ease was more effective. In short, the number of

prescriptions by itself is not conclusive as to whether one product is actually better than

another.

       The third assumption is that the milder non-prescription forms of Acid-Ease and

Pepticaidwill be analogous to the full-strength prescription forms of each. But this

might notbe the case. Suppose for the moment that the greater effectiveness of

prescriptionAcid-Ease has been established; even so, the non-prescription form might

notmeasure up to non-prescription Pepticaid. This fact must be established

independently.

       In conclusion, this ad does not provide enough support for its recommending non-

prescriptionAcid-Ease over non-prescription Pepticaid. To strengthen its argument, the

promoterof Acid-Ease would have to show that (1) the comparison between the number

ofprescriptions is based on the same time period; (2) its effectiveness is themain reason

moredoctors have prescribed it, and (3) the comparative effectiveness of the two non-

prescription forms is analogous to that of the prescription forms.

人间烟火Sue

     【20】

      In thisargument, the head of a government department concludes that the

departmentdoes not need to strengthen either its ethics regulations or its enforcement

mechanismsin order to encourage ethical behavior by companies with which it does

business.The first reason given is that businesses have agreed to follow the

department'sexisting code of ethics. The second reason is that the existing code is

relevantto the current business environment. This argument is unacceptable for several

reasons.

       Thesole support for the claim that stronger enforcement mechanisms are

unnecessarycomes from the assumption that companies will simply keep their promises

to followthe existing code. But, since the department head clearly refers to rules

violationsby these same businesses within the past year, his faith in their word is

obviouslymisplaced. Moreover, it is commonly understood that effective rules carry

with themmethods of enforcement and penalties for violations.

       Toshow that a strengthened code is unnecessary, the department head claims that

theexisting code of ethics is relevant. In partial clarification of the vague term

"relevant,"we are told that the existing code was approved in direct response to

violationsoccurring in the past year. If the full significance of being relevant is thatthe

coderesponds to last year's violations, then the department head must assume thatthose

violationswill be representative of all the kinds of ethics problems that concern the

department.This is unlikely; in addition, thinking so produces an oddly short-sighted

idea ofrelevance.

       Sucha narrow conception of the relevance of an ethics code points up its

weakness.The strength of an ethics code lies in its capacity to cover many different

instancesof the general kinds of behavior thought to be unethical to cover not only last

year'sspecific violations, but those of previous years and years to come. Yet thisauthor

explicitlyrejects a comprehensive code, preferring the existing code because it is

"relevant"and "not in abstract anticipation of potential violations."

       Insum, this argument is naive, vague and poorly reasoned. The department head

has notgiven careful thought to the connection between rules and their enforcement, to

whatmakes an ethics code relevant, or to how comprehensiveness strengthens a code.

In thefinal analysis, he adopts a backwards view that a history of violations should

determinerules of ethics, rather than the other way around.

HonTintin

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人间烟火Sue

【21】

       Recent social changes in the country of Spiessa lead the author to predict a

continuedsurge in growth of that country's restaurant industry. Rising personal incomes,

additionalleisure time, an increase in single-person households, and greater interest in

gourmetfood are cited as the main reasons for this optimistic outlook. All of these

factorsare indeed relevant to growth in the restaurant industry; so the predictionappears

reasonableon its face. However, three questionable assumptions operative in this

argument bear close examination.

       The first dubious assumption is that the supply of restaurants in Spiessa will

continueto grow at the same rate as in the recent past. However, even in the most

favorableconditions and the best of economic times there are just so many restaurants

that agiven population can accommodate and sustain. It is possible that the demandfor

restaurantshas already been met by the unprecedented growth of the past decade, in

whichcase the recent social changes will have little impact on the growth of the

restaurant industry.

       A second assumption is that the economic and social circumstances cited by the

authorwill actually result in more people eating out at restaurants. This assumptionis

unwarranted,however. For example, increased leisure time may just as likely result in

morepeople spending more time cooking gourmet meals in their own homes. Also,

singlepeople may actually be more likely than married people to eat at home than togo

out formeals. Finally, people may choose to spend their additional income in other

ways—onexpensive cars, travel, or larger homes.

       A third poor assumption is that, even assuming people in Spiessa will choose to

spendmore time and money eating out, no extrinsic factors will stifle this demand.This

assumptionis unwarranted. Any number of extrinsic factors—such as a downturn in the

generaleconomy or significant layoffs at Spiessa's largest businesses—may stall the

currentrestaurant surge. Moreover, the argument fails to specify the "socialchanges"

that haveled to the current economic boom. If it turns out these changes are politically

driven,then the surge may very well reverse if political power changes hands.

       In conclusion, this argument unfairly assumes a predictable future course for both

supplyand demand. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least show

thatdemand for new restaurants has not yet been exhausted, that Spiessa can

accommodatenew restaurants well into the future, and that the people of Spiessa

actuallywant to eat out more.

人间烟火Sue

【22】

Laboratory studies show that Saluda Natural Spring Water contains several of the

mineralsnecessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria. Residents

ofSaluda, the small town where the water is bottled, are hospitalized lessfrequently

than thenational average. Even though Saluda Natural Spring Water may seem

expensive,drinking it instead of tap waster is a wise investment in good health

Sample Essay 1:

       The argument that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water instead of tap water is a

wiseinvestment in good health is not entirely logically convincing, since it lacks certain

supporting factors.

        Firstly, the argument assumes thatSaluda Natural Spring Water is the major

reasonwhy residents of Saluda are less frequently hospitalized than the nationalaverage.

However,there is little evidence that this water is the only difference between thisplace

and therest of the country. And the reason why people in other places are more

hospitalizedare numerous and varied. There are so many other factors that would bring

people in other places to hospitals, such as accidents, food contamination, illnesses,etc.

       Secondly, the argument also assumes that the minerals in Saluda National Spring

Water arethe key minerals for the good health of the residents of Saluda. However, this

may notbe true. We need not only minerals to keep good heath but also various

vitamins.Besides, our body needs more minerals than those contained in Saluda Natural

Spring Water.

       Finally, even if the Saluda water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda

are lesshospitalized, the argument still omits the fact that there is more than one wayto

keepdrinking water free from bacteria. For instance, the most common practice is to

boilwater up to 100 degree Celsius and keep it at that degree for more than 5minutes.

Therefore drinking Saluda water to keep good health is not the only alternative.

       Thus,the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the

conclusionthat the Saluda residents are less hospitalized does little to prove the

conclusion-thatdrinking Saluda Natural Spring Water is a wise investment in good

health-sinceit omits the assumptions I have just raised. The argument might have been

strengthenedby making it plain that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason

why theresidents of Saluda are less hospitalized, that the water contains all themajor

minerals essential for the human body, and that there is no other way to keep water from

bacteria.

人间烟火Sue

【23】

Sample Essay 2:

       In this argument the author concludes that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water

(SNSW) ispreferable to drinking tap water. Three reasons are offered in support of this

conclusion:SNSW contains several of the minerals necessary for good health, it is

completelytree of bacteria, and residents of Saluda—the town where it is bottled—are

hospitalizedless frequently than the national average. This argument is unconvincing

because it relies on a variety of dubious assumptions.

       The first questionable assumption underlying this argument that tap water does

notcontain the minerals in question and is not completely free of bacteria. This

assumptionis not supported in the argument. If tap water is found to contain the same

mineral sand to be free of bacteria, the author's conclusion is substantiallyundermined.

       A second assumption of the argument is that the water residents of Saluda drinkis

the sameas SNSW. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that Saluda is notthe

source ofthe bottled water but is merely the place where SNSW is bottled. No evidence

is offered in the argument to dispute this possibility.

       Finally,it is assumed without argument that the reason residents are hospitalized

less frequentlythan the national average is that they drink SNSW. Again, no evidence is

offeredto support this assumption. Perhaps the residents are hospitalized lessfrequently

becausethey are younger than the national average, because they are all vegetarians,or

becausethey exercise daily. That is, there might be other reasons than the one citedto

account for this disparity.

       In conclusion, this is an unconvincing argument. To strengthen the conclusion that

SNSW ismore healthful than tap water, the author must provide evidence that tap water

containsharmful bacteria not found in SNSW. Moreover, the author must demonstrate

that theresidents of Saluda regularly drink the same water as SNSW and that this is

why they are hospitalized less frequently than the national average.

人间烟火Sue

【24】

      The conclusion of this editorial is that the government should lower property taxes

forrailroad companies. The first reason given is that railroads spend billions peryear

maintainingand upgrading their facilities. The second reason is that shipping goods by

rail iscost-effective and environmentally sound. This argument is unconvincing for

several reasons.

       First of alt, the argument depends upon a misleading comparison between railroad

and truckcompany expenditures. Although trucking companies do not pay property tax

on roadsthey use, they do pay such taxes on the yards, warehouses and maintenance

facilitiesthey own. And while trucking companies pay only a portion of road

maintenancecosts, this is because they are not sole users of public roads. Railroad

companiesshoulder the entire burden of maintenance and taxes on their own facilities

and tracks; but they distribute these costs to other users through usage fees.

       In addition, the author assumes that property taxes should be structured toprovide

incentivesfor cost-effective and environmentally beneficial business practices. This

assumptionis questionable because property taxes are normally structured to reflect the

value ofproperty. Moreover, the author seems to think that cost-effectiveness and

environmentalsoundness are equally relevant to the question of tax relief. However,

these areseparate considerations. The environmental soundness of a practice might be

relevantin determining tax structuring, but society does not compensate a business for

its cost-efficiency.

       Splitting the issues of cost-efficiency and environmental impact highlights an

ambiguityin the claim that railway shipping is more appropriate. On the one hand, it

may be appropriate,or prudent, for me to ship furniture by rail because it is cost-

effective;on the other hand, it might be appropriate, or socially correct, to encourage

morerailway shipping because it is environmentally sound. The argument thus trades

on anequivocation between social correctness on the one hand, and personal orbusiness

prudenceon the other.

       In sum, this argument is a confusion of weak comparisons, mixed issues and

equivocalclaims. I would not accept the conclusion without first determining: (1) the

factorsrelevant to tax structure, (2) whether specific tax benefits should accrue to

propertyas well as to income and capital gains taxes, (3) whether railway shipping  

reallydoes provide greater social benefits, and (4) whether it is correct to motivatemore

railway shipping on thisbasis.

人间烟火Sue

【25】

      The  conclusion in this argument is that increased vigilance by drug enforcement

authoritieshas resulted in an increase in the illegal use of cocaine. The author reaches

thisconclusion on the grounds that drug traffickers have responded to increased

enforcementefforts by switching from bulkier and riskier drugs to cocaine. Presumably,

theauthor's reasoning is that the increased enforcement efforts inadvertentlybrought

about anincrease in the supply of cocaine which, in turn, brought about the observed

increasein the illegal use of cocaine. This line of reasoning is problematic in two

important respects.

       In the first place, the author has engaged in "after this, therefore becauseof this"

reasoning.The only reason offered for believing that the increased vigilance caused the

increasein cocaine use is the fact that the former preceded the latter. No additional

evidencelinking the two events is offered in the argument, thus leaving open the

possibilitythat the two events are not causally related but merely correlated. This inturn

leavesopen the possibility that factors other than the one cited are responsible forthe

increasein cocaine use.

       In the second place, the author assumes that an increase in the supply of cocaineis

sufficientto bring about an increase in its use. While this is a tempting assumption, itis

aproblematic one. The presumption required to substantiate this view is thatdrug users

are notparticular about which drugs they use, so that if marijuana and heroin are not

available,they will switch to whatever drug is available—cocaine in this case. The

assumptiondoes not seem reasonable on its face. Marijuana, heroin, and cocaine are not

alike intheir effects on users; nor are they alike in the manner in which they are

ingestedor in their addictive properties. The view that drug users' choice of drugs is

simply afunction of supply overlooks these important differences.

       In conclusion, the author has failed to establish a causal link between increased

enforcementefforts and the observed increase in illegal cocaine use. While the

enforcementactivities may have been a contributing factor, to show a clear causal

connection the author must examine and rule out various other factors.