GWD 4-20

aurorazhou

Q20:

Community activist:  If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville.  Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the community activist’s reasoning?

Have community activists in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville currently do almost all of their shopping at stores in Morganville?

In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?

Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five years of operation?

Can anyone explain the correct answer? And why B is wrong?

  

elite-william

is the answer C?

if the proportion of the bankrupacy with healthy ones is a quarter or even more,the reasoning will be a fallacy.

aurorazhou

your answer is correct. But why???

elite-william

题目说如果它在商业中心以外的地方再开一家store的话，破产率会达到1/4。

C说1/4这个数即使在健康的商业中心是否也是如此。if yes,说明在商业中心以外的地方再开一家store毫无影响。if no,说明是有影响的。

总之是在evaluate 1/4 这个数是否是正常植。

winrain

up

lenovoo

Records of bankruptcy rate from other small towns may not consistent with those from small towns with healthy shopping district.
C helps to evaluate whether two situation are the same.