[逻辑小分队] helr 相关因果推理模式 讨论

因为大家的帮助讨论对Helr相关因果推理有了更深刻的理解！！在这里给回答的小伙伴们表示感谢！！！

在1899年，失业率上升，自杀率增加

结论：失业率上升会导致自杀率增加

这个时候削弱方向可以为CQ1：

另外一个时期中，失业率上升，自杀率却没有变化----例如1969年，失业率上升，自杀率不变

之所以可以用其余时期的例子去CQ是因为结论是一个普遍的结论，并不是针对1899年的结论

在1899年，失业率上升，自杀率增加

结论：在1899年 失业率上升会导致自杀率增加

这个时候就不能用“1969年，失业率上升，自杀率不变” 去削弱1899年的结论

Last year a global disturbance of weather patterns disrupted harvests in many of the world’s important agricultural areas. Worldwide production of soybeans, an important source of protein for people and livestock alike, was not adversely affected, however. Indeed, last year’s soybean crop was actually slightly larger than average. Nevertheless, the weather phenomenon is probably responsible for a recent increase in the world price of soybeans.Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest justification for the attribution of the increase in soybean prices to the weather phenomenon?

• A Last year's harvest of anchovies, which provide an important protein source for livestock, was disrupted by the effects of the weather phenomenon.
• B Most countries that produce soybeans for export had above-average harvests of a number of food crops other than soybeans last year.
• C The world price of soybeans also rose several years ago, immediately after an earlier occurrence of a similar global weather disturbance.
• D Heavy rains attributable to the weather phenomenon improved grazing pastures last year, allowing farmers in many parts of the world to reduce their dependence on supplemental feed.
• E Prior to last year, soybean prices had been falling for several years.
  
  

在1899年，失业率上升，自杀率增加

结论：失业率上升会导致自杀率增加

这个时候削弱方向可以为CQ1：

另外一个时期中，失业率上升，自杀率却没有变化----例如1969年，失业率上升，自杀率不变