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Last year the rate of inflation was 1.2 percent, but for the current year it has been 4 percent. We can conclude
that inflation is on an upward trend and the rate will be still higher next year.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?
(A) The inflation figures were computed on the basis of a representative sample of economic data rather than
all of the available data.
(B) Last year a dip in oil prices brought inflation temporarily below its recent stable annual level of 4 percent.
(C) Increases in the pay of some workers are tied to the level of inflation, and at an inflation rate of 4 percent
or above, these pay raises constitute a force causing further inflation.
(D) The 1.2 percent rate of inflation last year represented a 10-year low.
(E) Government intervention cannot affect the rate of inflation to any significant degree.
Argument Evaluation
Situation Th e rate of infl ation was 1.2 percent last year but is 4 percent in the current year. It is
therefore expected to rise above 4 percent next year.
Reasoning What point most weakens this conclusion? Th e conclusion is based on an upward trend that
is derived from data for two years. Data from only two years provide rather weak
evidence of a trend. Additional evidence that provides a context for the annual infl ation
rates during the most recent two-year period will promote a more solid evaluation of this
prediction of next year’s infl ation rate. If infl ation has recently been stable at 4 percent,
and the temporary drop the previous year is accounted for by lower oil prices, then the
basis for the prediction seems quite weak.
A As long as the sample was representative, the fi gures should be accurate. Th is point does not
weaken the conclusion.
B Correct. Th is statement suggests that the 1.2 percent infl ation rate is an unusual occurrence in
recent years. Especially because the dip below the stable 4 percent rate was temporary, this
unusual occurrence cannot be used as the basis for predicting a trend.
C Th is statement explains one process by which infl ation increases and tends to support the
conclusion that infl ation will continue to rise.
D Th is information implies, for example, that two years ago, the infl ation rate was higher than
1.2 percent. Th is raises the possibility (without stating it) that last year and the year preceding
mark a trend of declining infl ation (and that the current year’s 4 percent is an aberration).
However, if the infl ation rate two years ago was only slightly higher than 1.2 percent (for
example, 1.25 percent), then it would be diffi cult to regard these two numbers as signaling a
trend of declining infl ation. We do not have enough information here to regard this as a
signifi cant weakener. Th e information is suffi cient to justify a little doubt about the argument’s
conclusion—but not at all specifi c enough to undermine the argument’s conclusion as much as
does (B).
E Th e failure of government intervention to aff ect the rate of infl ation could be seen to support, not
weaken, the conclusion.
Th e correct answer is B. 这题主要是不理解B选项的解释。 a dip in oil prices 是什么意思？然后B选项为什么能证明1.2％是反常的？ 最后E选项为什么是支持？ | 
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发表于 2009-10-19 10:38:00
