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First of all, your point that " there must be " the other reason why the numbers are not matching is totally a great start, and I also have to say, the way you think is not incorrect. So, good job. However, we also have to admit the other fact that your argument is sufficient enough to have the argument happens, but not necessary to make the argument solid.
Second, if there are no the other reason sufficiently to sold the argument, what we have to do is to ask ourself why could be have the insight that " there must be the other reasons to makes the numbers dismatched " As a result, " overall numbers of the passengers increased to lead to the overall numbers of the complaints increased " is just one of the possible answers. In that sense, your reasoning is not incorrect, and all you have to do is to think about if there are any other possible sufficient condition that can lead the situation happened.
A. if the flight last year is more than this year, then certainly, the overall numbers of the passenger must be less than last year of this year. If the numbers of passengers really decreased this year, then it would not be true compared to our original insights.
B. So ? we are not discussing about the cause of the delays. I will complain about the delays, but not the " cause " of the delays.
C. So? As long as the improvement is made, I would not care about whom establish the regulations.
D. **** " Important " ****. ok, so that's why here is the new reason being counted in. Let me give you the example. Supposed we do have 50 people waiting for the connecting flight from San Jose to Miami, and 40 people would not complain if the delay time is less than 2 hours, and the rest of the 10 would complain even if there is only 1 mins delay. So, is that possible that even though the total numbers of the passengers does not changed from last years; however, even though the fact that half of the delays of year ago would be the numbers of delays of this year, the " numbers " of the passengers " submit " the complains doubled due to the fact that those " 40 " people " might " complain due to the greater length of the delays.
So, yes, there must be other reason, and the reason must be relied on the number differences. However, you presumed that the ratios of passenger submitting the complaints must be the same of both years, if your original reason must be true. As a result, what if the total numbers of the passengers does not change ? then it must be true that the ratio of submitting the complaints to be different.
E. It could be true that the average number of passengers per flight was no higher last year than the year before. However, it " does not connect to the argument as to make it airtight ".
* There must be something happened to make the overall complaints increased.
It could be either 1, the total amount of the complaints increased due to total amount of the passengers increased, or 2, the total amount of the complaints increased due to a new reason that relevant to the delays happened. Or even both !
As to your point " 至于D, delay的时间长短, 无论是10 mins 还是 1 hours, 只要他晚点, 大家都很着急要赶飞机,都会抱怨,这才是无关吧. "
＊你的必要假設為, 抱怨比率恆為不變。 因為只要抱怨比率恆為有變, 你的argument 就不對了。
懂了嗎？
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发表于 2019-7-30 08:10:27
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