请教OG-165

OG-165: Country Y uses its scarce foreign-exchange reserves to buy scrap iron for recycling into steel.  Although the steel thus produced earns more foreign exchange than it costs, that policy is foolish.  Country Y's own territory has vast deprosits of iron ore, which can be mined with minimal expenditure of foreign exchange.

Which of the folling, if true, provides the strongest support for Country Y's policy of buying scrap iron abroad?

(a) The price of scrap iron on international martkets rose significantly in 1987.

(b) Country Y's foreign-exchange reserves dropped significantlly in 1987.

(c) There is virtually no difference in quality between steel produced from scrap iron and that produced from iron ore.

(d) Scrap iron is now used in the production of roughly half the steel used in the world today, and experts predict that scrap iron will be used even more extensively in the future.

(e) Furnaces that process scrap iron can be built and operated in Country Y with substantially less foreign exchange than can furnaces that process iron ore.  

答案是E, 我想是不是因为文中提到'the steel thus produced earns more foreign exchange that it costs'，就应该从'foreign exchange'上作答？ 我开始选了D. 我觉得正因为以后的需求量会更大，现在才应该进口以保证储备为以后做准备。我不太懂OG上对D的解释'Choice D would support the policy only with assumptions about the reasons for the experts' prediction.' 谢谢NN们帮助！对于D，你们有什么更好的办法排除吗？

我不牛，只是在逻辑区工作，所以大家一起讨论讨论，MM弄懂题目就最好，目的就达到了。

我明白你的思路。但是这个就是你要扭转的，因为ETS出题是讲究事实的。D是没有强有力地说服力的解释推论，但是很有力地证明专家预测。所以D和推论没有直接关系。这一点是ＯＧ解释里说的。

我的理解是，如果废钢的储量将来会不够，那么我也可以认为Ｙ国的钢矿会吃香起来，Ｙ国没有必要把自己稀有的储备去换废钢。Ｙ国之所以这么做有更强和符合逻辑的理由，就是废钢用起来比钢矿省事省资源。这里理由非常直接。　

如果考试时，你遇到类似题目，如果你无法理解D的缺陷，就绝对选一个很明显，直接，有说服力的答案。绝大多数逻辑题要的答案都是to the point，转弯的不多。

如果考试时，你遇到类似题目，如果你无法理解D的缺陷，就绝对选一个很明显，直接，有说服力的答案。绝大多数逻辑题要的答案都是to the point，转弯的不多。

多谢babypace JJ的指点，我觉得我开始有点儿太专牛角尖儿了，还是思维直接一点儿比较好。找与题中信息联系最紧密，推导最直接的就好了。谢谢！我明白了。

country Y 的方法一：购买废铁——将废铁炼钢

争议的方法二：采铁矿——将铁矿炼制成钢

在E中，虽然比较的仅仅是两种方法的第二步的成本。但已经构成support了

我还是实在不能理解OG对D地解释，求助啊！

证明专家预测？

D说的不就是专家的预测吗？自己支持自己？

嗯，感觉斑竹说的对，在ETS的逻辑中，to the point最重要