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Argument60:Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used
oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-
normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for
several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent
population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and
recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the
retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be
sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the
argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The editorial recommends investing in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business
operations is the home-heating-oil retail sale, to earn a profit. To support this claim the editorial points
out that anomalous cold weather pattern like last heating season will continue for several more years,
and that many new homes are being built in this region, both of which predict an increased demand for
heating oil. The argument is established upon several critical assumptions: first, the extreme weather
in the heating season and the newly-built houses will guarantee increment of heating-oil selling; and
second, Consolidated Industries is a nice choice for investing, which is sure to perform well in the next
few years. Close scrutiny of these assumptions, however, none of them are substantiated within the
editorial.
First, the editorial may falsely assume that heating oil is truly a necessity for people when antagnizing
with the cold winter, even though the temperature is quite below-normal. Perhaps the compeitence of
heat preservation of the buildings in this city is quite good that even though it's piercing cold outside,
nearly no heating oil is needed for house warming. Or perhaps the heating oil selled has quite a high
combustion value, which means just a little heating oil could release heat enough to warm the whole
house. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities that might contribute to weak heating oil
demand, the editorial can not convince me that extreme climate initiates good prospects for investing
heat oil.
Second, the editorial may assume too hastily that new homes in this region will continue to use
heating oil as fuel for heating. It's entirely possible that new heating device or equipment such like the
electrical heater, which is more convienient and efficient, will come into being and replace traditional
heating oil as a tool for warming due to technology advancement. It is also possible that the rise of oil
price around the world force local citizens considering other measures to substitute heating oil, such
as choosing other alternative heating fuels.
Finally, even assuming that the demand for heatting oil will increse, we cannot guarantee that investing
in Consolidated Industries will be profitable. Though its major business operation is the retail sale of
home heating oil, its competitiveness in this field is unwarranted compared with other coorpations
specizing in the same business. Even if it keeps the dorminant advantages now, no one could guarantee
that it will be sure to success in the following 5 years. Maybe they would alter their business policy as
for the change of its leadership, or maybe they could not continue to develop any other new product to
cater to the customers. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the editorial can not
convince me that investing in Consolidated Industries is a good choice.
In sum, the editorial leads suspicious assumptions upon which its recommendation establishes. To
persuade me that investing in Consolidated Industries will surely make profit, the editorial would need
to provide clear evidence that heating oil is truly needed for people antagnizing with the piercing cold
climate in winter and that most of the new homes will choose heating oil for warming. The author must
also convince me that Consolidated Industries will make a good performance in the next 5 to 10 years.
FInally, to better evaluate the editorial's recommendation we would also need more information about
the accuracy of the climate forecast, alowing for the tough and difficult in the prediction of the weather
and climate. |
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发表于 2012-7-6 00:04:45
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