argument 60！处女作！憋了3个小时！求拍！狠狠拍~~！！谢谢啦，刚入门，指导下啊！！

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Argument60:Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used

oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-

normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for

several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent

population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and

recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the

retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be

sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the

argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.




The editorial recommends investing in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business

operations is the home-heating-oil retail sale, to earn a profit. To support this claim the editorial points

out that anomalous cold weather pattern like last heating season will continue for several more years,

and that many new homes are being built in this region, both of which  predict an increased demand for

heating oil. The argument is established upon several critical assumptions: first, the extreme weather

in the heating season and the newly-built houses will guarantee increment of heating-oil selling; and

second,  Consolidated Industries is a nice choice for investing, which is sure to perform well in the next

few years. Close scrutiny of these assumptions, however, none of them are substantiated within the

editorial.

First, the editorial may falsely assume that heating oil is truly a necessity for people when antagnizing

with the cold winter, even though the temperature is quite below-normal. Perhaps the compeitence of

heat preservation of the buildings in this city is quite good that even though it's piercing cold outside,

nearly no heating oil is needed for house warming. Or perhaps the heating oil selled has quite a high

combustion value, which means just a little heating oil could release heat enough to warm the whole

house. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities that might contribute to weak heating oil

demand, the editorial can not convince me that extreme climate initiates good prospects for investing

heat oil.

Second, the editorial may assume too hastily that  new homes in this region will continue to use  

heating oil as fuel for heating. It's entirely possible that new heating device or equipment such like the

electrical heater, which is more convienient and efficient, will come into being and replace traditional

heating oil as a tool for warming due to technology advancement.  It is also possible that the rise of oil

price around the world force local citizens considering other measures to substitute heating oil, such

as choosing other alternative heating fuels.

Finally, even assuming that the demand for heatting oil will increse, we cannot guarantee that investing

in Consolidated Industries will be profitable. Though its major business operation is the retail sale of

home heating oil, its competitiveness in this field is unwarranted compared with other coorpations

specizing in the same business. Even if it keeps the dorminant advantages now, no one could guarantee

that it will be sure to success in the following 5 years. Maybe they would alter their business policy as

for the change of its leadership, or maybe they could not continue to develop any other new product to

cater to the customers. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the editorial can not

convince me that investing in Consolidated Industries is a good choice.    

In sum, the editorial leads suspicious assumptions upon which its recommendation establishes. To

persuade me that investing in Consolidated Industries will surely make profit, the editorial would need

to provide clear evidence that heating oil is truly needed for people antagnizing with the piercing cold

climate in winter and that most of the new homes will choose heating oil for warming. The author must

also convince me that Consolidated Industries will make a good performance in the next 5 to 10 years.

FInally, to better evaluate the editorial's recommendation we would also need more information about

the accuracy of the climate forecast, alowing for the tough and difficult in the prediction of the weather

and climate.

普渡哥

In sum, the editorial leads suspicious assumptions upon which its recommendation establishes.

有语法问题。

竹林中人

我觉得你的第一段写的太多了，能否删掉不必要的内容。或者压缩到后面的段落里面去

竹林中人

中间的论述还是很到位的
结尾段落也不要那么长，结尾要短而有力。
最后就是A多积累些句式，不要太固定了。比如每段开头的连接词，经常用到的句式，多积累些可以变换的