求教lawyer逻辑一道题

yongqiang2742

Codex Berinensis, a Florentine copy of an ancient Roman medical treatise, is undated but contains clues to when it was produced. Its first 80 pages are by a single copyist, but the remaining 20 pages are by three different copyists, which indicates some
significant disruption. Since a letter in handwriting identified as that of the fourth copyist mentions a plague that killed many people in Florence in 1148, Codex Berinensis was probably produced in that year.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the hypothesis that Codex Berinensis was produced in 1148?
(A) Other than Codex Berinensis, there are no known samples of the handwriting of the first three copyists.
(B) According to the account by the fourth copyist, the plague went on for 10 months.
(C) A scribe would be able to copy a page of text the size and style of Codex Berinensis in a day.
(D) There was only one outbreak of plague in Florence in the 1100s.
(E) The number of pages of Codex Berinensis produced by a single scribe becomes smaller with each successive change of copyist.

答案是D。
我觉得D是不能support的。
因为即便1100s只发生一次疫情，仍然不能排除这本书是写于1148年之后的，进而是推倒不出这本书是写于1848年的。

sonicsnake

1100到1199年，只有一次疫情是唯一说的通的了
从情况来看，写头80页的人没病，估计老死了，剩下的三个人里除了收尾的那个估计都得瘟疫挂了，挂了才会轮到下一个人写
你可能没明白，写的不是书，是病历本，只要有生病的人，病历本是要不停写的，所以不会存在最后一个人长时间停笔然后继续的情况

jane_0519

前80页由一个人抄写，后20页由3个不同的人抄写 - 可以猜测第一个人写到80页的时候死了，换了第二个人，此时瘟疫爆发，抄写员陆续死掉，所以连续换了三个人。最后这个人之后的情况没有在文中给出。
第四个人的信件提到1148年的一场瘟疫死了很多人，印证上面的猜测。这本书后20页极有可能是在瘟疫的时候抄写的

选项D - 虽然第四个人的信件可能是1148年后很多年回忆后记录的，但是一本书的抄写更有可能在时间上是连续的，即第三个人死掉后立马换了第四个人

选项E - 只能推测出这本书是在瘟疫时候抄写的，随着瘟疫的爆发抄写员都因为瘟疫死掉了。离时间推断还有一步。

比较之下D更合适