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发表于 2014-11-15 18:56:34
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Part II: Speed
Why Germans Want to Change the Subject
They’d rather debate the future of processed food than acknowledge Putin’s military aggression.
[Time 2]
BERLIN—Far away from the main events—the balloons, the speeches, and the 25th anniversary celebrations of the fall of the Wall—last weekend I joined a panel discussion about the future of Europe, as one does so often in Germany. Asked to say a few words about “threats to the West,” I spoke about the relative weakness of NATO, about the failures of European foreign policy, about Russia’s use of money and disinformation to divide Europe and the United States.
These are all subjects that many outside Germany now debate quite often. The crowd and the other panelists nodded—and then almost immediately changed the subject. Instead of NATO, the German audience wanted to discuss genetically modified food and chickens washed in chlorinated water. If the trans-Atlantic trade treaty now under negotiation is ever passed, many speakers said they feared that these things might be forced upon German citizens by American corporations. That, to them, was the greatest threat to the Western alliance.
It made for a stark contrast. Over by the Brandenburg Gate, Angela Merkel was acting like the major world figure that everybody outside of Germany assumes her to be. Alongside the mayor of Berlin, the chancellor congratulated Germans on the role they had played in the peaceful, democratic revolutions of 1989—those events that prove “we can change things for the better”—and expressed the hope that others in Syria, Ukraine, and elsewhere would one day enjoy the same transformation.
It’s a lot easier to stop chlorinated chickens than it is to stop the Kremlin.
A few days later, Merkel returned, once again, to her role as the West's chief negotiator with Russia. Since late last spring, Germany—not the European Union, and certainly not the United States—has convened all of the important meetings, pushed through sanctions, and conducted most of the diplomacy designed to allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to “de-escalate,” or to “give him an off ramp,” or whatever formulation is currently fashionable. Although it isn’t clear that this diplomatic effort has borne any fruit, no one doubts that Germany has played a central role and will continue to do so.
[358words]
[Time 3]
No one doubts it—except, of course, the Germans. As the United States began to play a greater world role in the mid-20th century, a class of politicians, civil servants, and journalists emerged who were willing to think about the world, act in it, and write about it. No parallel class has yet emerged in Germany, a country that would prefer not to lead, thank you very much. My panel was just an insignificant example, but when I described the experience to a range of people, almost all nodded in agreement. “When I think of politics,” a German friend told me, “I think about my neighborhood, street lights, construction permits. Not foreign countries.” Of course Germans want to talk about the grave threat posed by trans-Atlantic trade, another Berliner told me: It’s a lot easier to stop chlorinated chickens than it is to stop the Kremlin.
This national dislike of grand strategy is reflected in opinion polls. Support for sanctions against Russia—the policy Merkel has pushed hard—was quite low in Germany until the Malaysia Airlines crash gave the policy an emotional lift. Even now, the support for a “greater world role for Germany” is higher than it used to be, but still not overwhelming. More than half oppose the suggestion that NATO should move some of its bases to the eastern edge of the alliance, where they might actually help deter Russian aggression.
Merkel and her Cabinet are now caught in an odd trap. France and Italy are struggling to fix their weak economies. Britain is struggling to decide whether it wants to stay in Europe at all. There isn’t a strong EU foreign policy, in part because Germany hasn’t wanted to create one. This makes Merkel the de facto spokeswoman for Europe—as well as the chancellor of a Germany that doesn't want to be the spokesman for anything. How long can that paradox last?
[318words]
Source: Slate
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/11/germans_want_to_ignore_putin_s_aggression_they_aren_t_ready_for_germany.html
A War or a Skirmish?
Liberals and conservatives are overplaying the significance of Obama’s action on immigration.
[Time 4]
President Obama is reportedly putting the final touches on a plan to shield as many as 5 million unauthorized immigrants from deportation. An official announcement of his long-promised plan may come as soon as Sunday, or the president could wait until after Congress passes legislation in early December to keep the government running. Either way, the White House says, an executive overhaul of the nation’s immigration system is coming this year.
This is a big deal. While we don’t yet know how many people who will be directly affected by his executive actions, it’s expected to exceed the 1.5 million covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which the president created in 2012 to allow so-called Dreamers to apply for work permits and reprieves from deportation. If Obama goes as big as his advisers have suggested, his executive orders could cover nearly half of the estimated 11.7 million immigrants currently living in the country without authorization.
This will also be a huge deal politically. Republicans have already, to varying degrees, threatened to shut down the government to block the reforms. Democrats, meanwhile, are openly fantasizing about how this immigration overhaul could add a whole lot of blue to the electoral map in 2016 and beyond.
But given all the hype you’ll hear from the left and the right—both of which have plenty of motivation to paint the president’s move as either extraordinary (Democrats) or extralegal (Republicans)—it’s important to remember that the bulk of Obama’s actions will be temporary. There’s no guarantee that they’ll remain in place after he leaves office in two years. What happens after that will be in the hands of the next president.
Here’s what we know based on the rough sketch the administration has already provided to the New York Times and the Associated Press. The most sweeping action the president will likely take is to extend DACA-like reprieves to particular groups of unauthorized immigrants, the largest of which will probably be parents of children who are U.S. citizens or permanent residents. Such a reprieve would temporarily protect them from the threat of deportation, but it wouldn’t remove that threat forever. Despite what conservatives are suggesting with their talk of “executive amnesty,” the president doesn’t have the unilateral power to make someone a U.S. citizen or permanent legal resident. As Gregory Chen, the advocacy director for the American Immigration Lawyers Association, explained to the Center for American Progress this summer: “[Obama] can't simply say, ‘I'm going to change the criteria for a green card and give it to people I think should be eligible, such as someone who has lived here for five years and is contributing well to the community.’ ”
[451 words]
[Time 5]
Like DACA, Obama’s forthcoming plan will be based on “prosecutorial discretion,” which affords a president plenty of wiggle room to decide how he wants to enforce the laws that are on the books. While such a move is supported by plenty of legal precedent, it’s also fleeting by nature. Once Obama leaves office, that prosecutorial discretion will fall to his successor, be that President Hillary Clinton, President Chris Christie, or anyone else.
There is one group for whom Obama’s actions could have a more lasting impact: those unauthorized immigrants whose spouses are U.S. citizens or legal residents. Most people in that group are technically eligible to apply for a green card already, but only if they first leave the country and wait out what’s typically a lengthy separation from their family. Obama could offer what is known as “parole in place” to that group, allowing them to stay in the country legally while the green card process plays out. He did a similar thing last November for undocumented individuals with immediate family members serving in the U.S. military. Anyone who has a green card in hand before the president leaves office in early 2017 wouldn’t have to worry about losing it if the next president changes course.
The number of immigrants who fall in that category, however, is much smaller than those in the category of parents of children who are U.S. citizens or permanent residents. According to the Migration Policy Institute, there are approximately 1.5 million unauthorized spouses of U.S. citizens or permanent residents, compared to 3.6 million parents.
All of which is to say that, yes, Obama’s forthcoming announcement will be incredibly important to a huge number of people. It will affect millions of immigrants directly and millions more indirectly, and it will also set a precedent that the next president will have to grapple with. But as the Washington hype machine kicks into high gear over the next several weeks, keep in mind that the bulk of Obama’s moves will not be permanent ones. Real, lasting change to our immigration policy can come only from Congress. The president has already told lawmakers that. The problem, though, is they appear in no hurry to listen.
[367 words]
Source: Slate
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/11/obama_immigration_liberals_and_conservatives_are_overplaying_the_significance.html
The Obama Administration’s Biggest Human Rights Success Story Isn’t Looking So Great Now
[Time 6]
It’s getting harder for the Obama administration to point to concrete foreign policy successes. (Not doing “stupid shit,” in the words of the president, may indeed be an accomplishment, but it’s hard to take credit for things you didn’t do.) And many of the potential successes it can point to—the ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations, the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons, the promising early days of the Russia “reset” before that took a very unfortunate turn—involved looking the other way on some pretty egregious human rights abuses. During this week’s summit in Beijing, the White House’s previous efforts to reach out to the Chinese public have, the New York Times reports, been abandoned in favor of a more leader-centric approach.
When it comes to democracy and rights-promotion success stories, the White House could until recently point to Myanmar, also known as Burma, where the president will arrive tomorrow. Obama’s last visit to the country, in 2012, was indeed a historic opening to a place that had spent years as a North Korea-like pariah. In exchange for some sanctions relief, Myanmar’s military leaders allowed landmark elections in 2012 in which longtime democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was elected to parliament. The government also agreed to review the status of a number of political prisoners and agreed to nuclear inspections.
In a speech at West Point last May, Obama touted the country’s progress, saying, “Thanks to the enormous courage of the people in that country, and because we took the diplomatic initiative, American leadership, we have seen political reforms opening a once closed society.” If Myanmar’s reforms succeed, he concluded, “We will have gained a new partner without having fired a shot.”
Things look a bit different now. Tens of thousands of Rohingya Muslims in the country’s west are being held in camps where a U.N. official recently described conditions as containing an “element of genocide,” and the country’s parliament is considering new restrictions on freedom of religion. Myanmar has fallen short on a number of the key reforms that were promised during Obama’s last visit. Despite promises to open up competition for the presidency, a parliamentary committee last June voted against changing a law that bars Aung San Suu Kyi from running.
And even she, the Nobel Prize laureate and world-famous activist whom Obama will once again meet with on his trip, has disappointed many of her international admirers with her silence on the plight of the Rohingya. “The lady” is, after all, a politician now, and one whose grasp on power is looking ever more tenuous.
Given that Washington is already pivoting to 2016 politics, Myanmar’s backsliding also doesn’t look great for Hillary Clinton, who, in 2011, was the first senior U.S. official to visit Myanmar in 50 years. The “one clear-cut triumph” of her tenure as secretary of state doesn’t look so clear-cut anymore.
Of course, the story isn’t over. Myanmar’s path to reform was inevitably going to be bumpy, and Obama will no doubt address its recent backsliding during his visit (as he’s being widely urged to do). And even if the process is a disappointment, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t worth trying.
But one of this White House’s signature foreign policy success stories—and one of the very few involving democracy or human rights—is looking pretty shaky at the moment.
[557 words]
Source: Slate
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/11/obama_s_visit_to_burma_the_administration_s_one_human_rights_success_story.html
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