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Which of the following most logically completes the passage?

A recent government study links the high rates of respiratory ailments in Groverston to airborne pollutants released by the Woodco plywood manufacturing plant there. To address the problem the government imposed strict regulations on emissions which will go into effect in four years. Although Woodco plans to cut its emissions in half two years ahead of schedule, it is unlikely that the rate of respiratory ailments will decline before the regulations go into effect, since _______.

正确答案: E

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[Helr题库] 用Helr逻辑方法解OG CR 59遇到的一点关于推理模式及解题方向的疑问

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发表于 2014-9-14 13:36:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
拜读了Helr大神的逻辑笔记,看了坛子Vivian1091的心得帖子http://forum.chasedream.com/thread-868306-1-1.html,轮到自己在做OG CR 59的时候遇到判断推理模式及解题方向的困惑,向大家请教。

59. Which of the following most logically completes the passage?
A recent government study links the high rates of respiratory ailments in Groverston to airborne pollutants
released by the Woodco plywood manufacturing plant there. To address the problem, the government imposed
strict regulations on emissions which will go into effect in four years. Although Woodco plans to cut its
emissions in half two years ahead of schedule, it is unlikely that the rate of respiratory ailments will decline
before the regulations go into effect, since.
(A) the number of facilities capable of treating respiratory ailments is not likely to increase
(B) reducing emissions even further than planned would necessitate decreasing production at Woodco
(C) it is difficult to make accurate, long-term predictions about emissions
(D) not all respiratory ailments are caused by airborne pollutants
(E) three new plywood manufacturing plants are about to go into production in Groverston

这个题目有人说是相关因果,污染导致发病,污染减少发病减少;有人说因果;有人说果因。
我自己感觉是因果模式推理,简单归纳一下逻辑链,前提是:政府调查发现发病是由污染导致的,结论是:工厂将减排以减低发病率,题目要求削弱结论。
我自己错选了D,not all respiratory ailments are caused by airborne pollutants,我想有其他原因导致发病,减排了其他原因不变化一样会导致发病,是一种削弱。
后来看了答案解释,自己就纠结了...

Helr提到:因果果因这两个推理分不清楚,是很致命的,因为他们的CQ是对冲的,在果因中,你可以用"他因排除",但是因果推理中这种选项就明显是错误的。

以及:要避免选项提出了果的另一个可能的因,貌似很有道理,但却不是我们这道题要考虑的对象,我们要考虑现在给出的因果评估,而不是另一个因。而在果因中,可以找他因,说明果,这是一个评估方向。

我感觉自己犯了这样的错误,但是有点似懂非懂,还是搞不清楚为什么D不对。
另外对于因果的两个CQ,后来Helr补充到只要找到一个可以反驳原文结论的选项就可以,不必区分CQ1、2,我觉得有一些笼统,简单的因果推理很容易就能找到答案,难一点的话,就不好判断了,有具体的解题技巧么?
谢谢



 楼主| 发表于 2014-9-14 19:31:56 | 显示全部楼层
自顶一下
发表于 2014-9-17 22:16:40 | 显示全部楼层
关于d选项我个人的理解对比范围不同.
因为第一句airborne pollutants有一个修饰短语
所以和发病link的是airborne pollutants by xxxx而并非airborne pollutants本身,所以与之平级的应该是airborne pollutants by yyyy(not only xxxx),
原文:发病与w厂空气排污有关,
D选项:发病不仅与空气排污有关
发表于 2015-3-12 15:59:48 | 显示全部楼层
我觉得题目分清了之后很好做,跟楼主相反,我以为这道题是方案。其实分到因果就挺好做的了。你直接反驳果。哪个最能反驳果哪个就是答案。D说不只是air pollution能够产生疾病。但air pollution绝对是产生疾病的原因吧。你控制了air pollution,怎么说疾病都应该减少一部分啊,这样还是没有解决paradox啊。
发表于 2018-7-29 22:05:10 | 显示全部楼层
我觉得这道题属于少见的那种同一个CQ里面对比强弱的题目,我个人觉得D选项有些空泛,甚至有点在反驳题目设定的情境的感觉,所以强度弱于E(虽然我也选D)
然后我感觉这题比较像方案题,要找减排方案不能达到降低发病率这一目标的选项
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