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发表于 2014-2-1 01:22:14
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Part II: Speed Article 2: Ben Bernanke: 'One of the greatest' or 'History's biggest bubble blower'? [Time 2]
Friday is Ben Bernanke's last day as chairman of the Federal Reserve. It's certainly been an eventful eight years and, when you include his tenure as Fed vice chair (2002-2005), Ben Bernanke is clearly one of the most consequential central bankers of all-time. But was he a good one? A great one? Or a miserable failure?
In anticipation of Bernanke's departure, we asked a selection of Daily Ticker guests to give their thoughts on Bernanke's legacy. Here's a sample:
"He is one of the greatest heroes of government in the modern era," says Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital and author of The Age of Oversupply. "If you actually looked at the financial crises as a World War II kind of moment, this was a guy when there were no adults in the room who was actually willing to step up [and] keep his head about him. He did the right thing at the time."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer, largely agrees with that assessment, which is the prevailing wisdom among most mainstream policymakers, economists and academics. "I think that Fed chairman Bernanke did a miraculous job...in an environment where uncertainty was high [and] the downside risks were large," she says. "He managed in my opinion to stem off what would have been a very severe crisis in the financial markets and the economy."
On the other hand, Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research, describes Bernanke as "the biggest bubble blower in the history of all markets" and criticizes the outgoing Fed chief for "years of money printing" that resulted in, at best, a desultory economic 'recovery' for everyone not in the top 1%.
"We really won't have a full accounting of his tenure for a number of years down the road," he says, suggesting the success or failure of the Fed's 'exit strategy' will ultimately define Bernanke's legacy. "But if you asked me for a grade right now for his eight-year tenure I'd say it's a very solid 'A'. I think he performed marvelously during the crisis...and we should be thankful that he was leading the Fed. He's very important to how well this turned out."
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[Time 3]
Of course, you can never prove a counterfactual but the people who criticize Ben Bernanke seem to have amnesia about how terrifying the 2008 crisis was and how close the financial system came to collapsing, triggering a downturn akin to the Great Depression.
The U.S. economy has been officially expanding for 54 consecutive months and GDP growth in the second half of 2013 was the strongest since 2003 . (Related: The economy is only going to get stronger: Mark Zandi)
The U.S. financial system has mounted an impressive recovery from the depths of the 2008 crisis. Profits for the six biggest banks -- J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley -- hit $76 billion in 2013, just $6 billion shy of the record set in 2006. (Of course, it's not hard to make money when you can borrow at zero and invest at a risk-free rate currently at 2.7% on 10-year Treasuries.)
Millions of Americans remain under-employed or unemployed but the trend of slow but unspectacular growth -- around 2.2 million jobs per year -- is expected to continue and possibly accelerate in 2014 if business capital spending finally picks up.
The housing market has mounted a strong recovery from the depths of 2008-2009. The most recent S&P Case-Shiller 20-city Index showed home price appreciation at 13.8% on a year-over-year basis, the best November performance since 2005. (Of course, Bernanke's support of Greenspan's 1% fed funds rate in the aftermath of the dot.com bubble and 9/11 helped create the housing bubble in the first place -- but at least Bernanke was around to try and clean up the mess.)
I also give Bernanke high marks for standing up to some harshly critics in Congress and pointing out the myriad flaws in fiscal policy in recent years. My view is that for all the criticism directed at Bernanke -- some of it justified, much of it vitriolic -- it's too bad we won't have him to kick around any more.
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Source:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/ben-bernanke---one-of-the-greatest--or--history-s-biggest-bubble-blower---212841497.html
Article 3: How the 'Seinfeld Strategy' Can Help You Stop Procrastinating Jerry Seinfeld is one of the most successful comedians of all-time.
He is regarded as one of the "Top 100 Comedians of All-Time" by Comedy Central. He was also the co-creator and co-writer of Seinfeld, the long-running sitcom which has received numerous awards and was claimed to have the "Top TV Episode of All-Time" as rated by TV Guide.
Seinfeld reached his peak in earnings when he made $267 million dollars in 1998. (Yes, that was in one year. No, that's not a typo.) A full 10 years later, in 2008, Seinfeld was still pulling in a cool $85 million per year.
By almost any measure of wealth, popularity, and critical acclaim, Jerry Seinfeld is among the most successful comedians, writers, and actors of his generation.
However, what is most impressive about Seinfeld's career isn't the awards, the earnings, or the special moments -- it's the remarkable consistency of it all. Show after show, year after year, he performs, creates, and entertains at an incredibly high standard. Jerry Seinfeld produces with a level of consistency that most of us wish we could bring to our daily work.
Compare his results to where you and I often find ourselves. We want to create, but struggle to do so. We want to exercise, but fail to find motivation. Wanting to achieve our goals, but -- for some reason or another -- we still procrastinate on them.
What's the difference? What strategies does Jerry Seinfeld use to beat procrastination and consistently produce quality work? What does he do each day that most people don't?
I'm not sure about all of his strategies, but I recently discovered a story that revealed one of the secrets behind Seinfeld's incredible productivity, performance, and consistency.
Let's talk about that what he does and how you can use the "Seinfeld Strategy" to eliminate procrastination and actually achieve your goals.
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[Time 5]
The "Seinfeld Strategy"
Brad Isaac was a young comedian starting out on the comedy circuit. One fateful night, he found himself in a club where Jerry Seinfeld was performing. In an interview on Lifehacker, Isaac shared what happened when he caught Seinfeld backstage and asked if he had "any tips for a young comic."
Here's how Isaac described the interaction with Seinfeld...
He said the way to be a better comic was to create better jokes and the way to create better jokes was to write every day.
He told me to get a big wall calendar that has a whole year on one page and hang it on a prominent wall. The next step was to get a big red magic marker. He said for each day that I do my task of writing, I get to put a big red X over that day.
"After a few days you'll have a chain. Just keep at it and the chain will grow longer every day. You'll like seeing that chain, especially when you get a few weeks under your belt. Your only job is to not break the chain."
You'll notice that Seinfeld didn't say a single thing about results.
It didn't matter if he was motivated or not. It didn't matter if he was writing great jokes or not. It didn't matter if what he was working on would ever make it into a show. All that mattered was "not breaking the chain."
And that's one of the simple secrets behind Seinfeld's remarkable productivity and consistency. For years, the comedian simply focused on "not breaking the chain."
Let's talk about how you can use the Seinfeld Strategy in your life...
How to Stop Procrastinating
Top performers in every field -- athletes, musicians, CEOs, artists -- they are all more consistent than their peers. They show up and deliver day after day while everyone else gets bogged down with the urgencies of daily life and fights a constant battle between procrastination and motivation.
While most people get demotivated and off-track after a bad performance, a bad workout, or simply a bad day at work, top performers settle right back into their pattern the next day.
The Seinfeld Strategy works because it helps to take the focus off of each individual performance and puts the emphasis on the process instead. It's not about how you feel, how inspired you are, or how brilliant your work is that day. Instead, it's just about "not breaking the chain."
All you have to do to apply this strategy to your own life is pick up a calendar (here's an inexpensive one ) and start your chain.
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[Time 6]
A Word of Warning
There is one caveat with the Seinfeld Strategy. You need to pick a task that is meaningful enough to make a difference, but simple enough that you can get it done.
It would be wonderful if you could write 10 pages a day for your book, but that's not a sustainable chain to build. Similarly, it sounds great in theory to be able to deadlift like a maniac every day, but in practice you'll probably be overtrained and burnt out.
So step one is to choose a task that is simple enough to be sustainable. At the same time, you have to make sure that your actions are meaningful enough to matter.
For example, researching good jokes each day is simple, but you're never going to write a joke by merely researching. That's why the process of writing is a better choice. Writing can actually produce a meaningful result, even when it's done in small doses.
Similarly, doing 10 pushups per day could be simple and meaningful depending on your level of fitness. It will actually make you stronger. Meanwhile, reading a fitness book each day is simple, but it won't actually get you in better shape.
Choose tasks that are simple to maintain and capable of producing the outcome you want.
Another way of saying this is to focus on actions and not motions, which is a concept that I explained in this article: The Mistake That Smart People Make
Mastery Follows Consistency
The central question that ties our community together -- and what I try to write about every Monday and Thursday -- is "how do you live a healthy life?" This includes not merely nutrition and exercise, but also exploration and adventure, art and creativity, and connection and community.
But no matter what topic we're talking about, they all require consistency. No matter what your definition is of a "healthy life," you'll have to battle procrastination to make it a reality. Hopefully, the Seinfeld Strategy helps to put that battle in perspective.
Don't break the chain on your workouts and you'll find that you get fit rather quickly.
Don't break the chain in your business and you'll find that results come much faster.
Don't break the chain in your artistic pursuits and you'll find that you will produce creative work on a regular basis.
So often, we assume that excellence requires a monumental effort and that our lofty goals demand incredible doses of willpower and motivation. But really, all we need is dedication to small, manageable tasks. Mastery follows consistency.
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Source: http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/231023
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