逻辑笔记第二部分77题，统计枚举，还是搞不明白样本，求解

Sapphire_ran

这道题的样本到底是什么？看HERL笔记，写的是和Savemart竞争的这次，，，没看懂。。。这个不是基于过去的经验，所以预测未来怎么样的么？那么样本为什么是未来的特点或者过去与未来的不同啊？想不通。。。

77.   

Which of the following most logically completes the argument below?

Twenty percent of the stores in Morganville's downtown shopping district will fail within five years because they will be competing directly with the SaveMart discount department store newly opened in East Morganville.  The downtown shopping district has lost business at this rate before and has always completely rebounded.  Confidence that it will rebound again from the losses it is now about to suffer is ill founded, however, because __________.

A. the stores likely to be put out of business by direct competition from SaveMart are the downtown shopping district's anchor stores, on whose ability to draw shoppers many of the other downtown stores depend

B. the bus line that has long connected the downtown area of Morganville with East Morganville has a tradition of carrying shoppers who reside in East Morganville into downtown Morganville to shop

C. when the downtown shopping district has rebounded before, the business premises of a failed business were typically taken over by a business of the same kind as had been there before

D. SaveMart's business plan for the East Morganville store is based on earning low profits, if any, during the first five years of the store's existence

E. it is conceivable that the downtown shopping district could shrink substantially without collapsing altogether

1.     由问题问法得知，此题是评估类的题目。

2.     找到前提和结论：

这是一道解释题，一般来说这种题目的结论都是和前提相反的。也就是说，前提的内容在逻
辑上理应能推出一个结论，而论证中在给出一个转折词（诸如however）后，提出一个相反
的结论。然后让我们解释这个“surprising result”。所以本题中本应该有的结论是：“The
downtown shopping district willrebound again”

3.     判断推理模式：

前提：由于SaveMart这种商店的开张，大概有20%在Morganville的商店将要倒闭了。在以前，20%这种比率的倒闭率也发生过，每次都“回弹（rebound）”回来了。

结论：这次应该也可以回弹。

通过前提和结论的逻辑关系，我们知道，该论证基于了过去的“回弹”经验，试图预测现在是否可以回弹。属于比较典型的“由过去预测未来型”统计枚举推理。

4.     找到答案方向：

类统计枚举模式推理有两个CQ：

CQ1：样本代表性问题

CQ2：样本数量问题

通过观察两个CQ可知，选项中一定要提到样本，要么提到样本的特殊特点，要么提到一种新的样本。本题中的样本是和SaveMart竞争的这次。（由过去预测未来型的统计枚举推理，样本是未来的特点，或者未来与过去的不同。）

shiwei521

同不解。由过去推测未来为什么样本是这次的？

soulwangh

See this question as analogy type.

It is kind of far fetched to see it as statistic type.

BTW: There is no rigid difference between these two types. The essential pattern beneath them is the same one——Analogy . You can see sample statistic is an specific sub-set of the Analogy.

guown

soulwangh 发表于 2013-11-4 10:27
See this question as analogy type.

It is kind of far fetched to see it as statistic type.

我第一次做的时候也判断成了类比推理。。但是类比推理中得Cq要么指出两点不同要么有新的例子。我选择的是C，因为觉得它点出了S是discount和以前的模式不同。私以为A选项也无法判断成为两者不同的cq. 而如果作为统计枚举，同楼上我也认为过去的才应该是样本。C也涉及了样本。
实在太昏。请牛牛解答！

ixjlyuanlang800

求解阿我也是当类比做的为什么不可以

elenaknight

helr说过类比可以当成枚举，因为他们的判断方式和CQ是一样的。