gmatAWA 习作

绝望的小老鼠

9. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
思路：


1.年轻人比例可能涨的更快
2.年轻人的工资更高。


The magazine contends that middle-aged consumers contribute 39 percent of their retail expenditure to buy products and service in department store while the young ones spend 14 percentage point less. And there exists a trend during the coming decade that the middle-aged population will increase, therefore, these stores can expect a surge in retail sales during that period, and they will definitely benefit a lot by replacing part of the goods for the young with products aimed at the middle-aged people.

The reasoning of this argument is unconvincing due to several vulnerable points. Firstly, although larger percentage of middle-aged retail expenditure are devoted to department store, the younger consumers may earn a lot more than the middle-aged and thus in fact devote more than them to the department store. If the younger consumers are indeed the more powerful marketing target worth to invest more capital in, the decision made in the argument is not suitable to achieve the expectation mentioned in profit increasing. Furthermore, the material doesn’t mention the information whether the rate of the young-aged will increase faster than the middle-aged during the next decade. Clearly, if they both increase while the younger consumers burst and turn out to increase more than the middle-aged, the strategy to replace goods targeted the young consumers harm the original total profits, leave alone the expectation of significantly increase in retail sales.

In conclusion, based on the structure built above, this argument is not well reasoned in that it fails to consider the concrete data of certain groups and thus misunderstand the trend and what the trend will bring about. To improve the line of the reasoning, the author should think more completely, provide evidence to make sure that the younger consumers’ amount will stay constant during the next decade, and list enough concrete statistics as warranted supports to strengthen the whole argument.

绝望的小老鼠

10. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
Discuss how well reasoned... Etc.

思路：
没去抗议不代表不关心。
仅凭人数无法断定事情的严重性
This editorial is recommending that the state legislature need not to worry about the protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The author emphasizes that a considerable larger proportion of Waymarsh students don’t take part in this protestation, what’s more, there are only 200 students traveled to the state capitol building. Therefore, there is no need to deal with such a small scale protestation due to the two reasons listed above. The line of reasoning is problematic in two critical respects.

Firstly, the author concludes incorrectly about the stand of the other 12000 Waymarsh students. While it is clear that the majority of Waymarsh students tend to stay on campus or enjoy their vacation, it does not mean that they don’t care about the proposed cuts in funding. In contrast, they probably pay close attention to it, for every student will face less difficulty with more financial aid. Secondly, the author assumes that since not many students traveled to the state legislature to protest this recent proposed act, they cannot represent the major part of Waymarsh students’ wish, and thus the situation is merely a small scale turmoil that can be neglected. But no evidence is given to support this claim. Moreover, given that there exists a huge probability that the 200 students are elected by their other fellows, it is not wise to simply neglect such protest without further investigation.

In conclusion, the argument is not well reasoned because it depends on an oversimplified assumption about the connection between the protesters number and the ponderance of this protest, and concludes unconvincingly the other students’ stand in a similar way. To strengthen this argument, the author must identify and explore relevant factors beyond the number of protesters before conclusion, and thereby build a better reasoning structure.

绝望的小老鼠

11. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.

“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

思路：

错误的类比：事情相似但是发生的时间和环境不同

指标不具有代表性

In the local newspaper, the author asserts that the residents of San Perdito should replace Montoya  with Varro for a better city service. The author lists two reasons to support this view. The first reason is some indicators, such as the population, the unemployment, which are used to measure the city’s whole circumstance seem not quite well. And then the author made a comparison between M and V showing that Montoya ruined the good situation established by Varro, and thus concludes that M is not as capable as V when serves as mayor of the city of San Perdito. However, this argument’s line of reasoning is not convincing due to two vulnerable points listed as follows.

Firstly, those indicators mentioned in this editorial are not representative to prove that M behaves worse than V. The author assumes in the argument that there are no other reason resulting in the decrease in population and unemployment increase. Clearly, this assumption is ill-considered for it lacks further investigation and miss the process to rule out other possibility to identify the real reason that lead to this bad situation. Perhaps a natural disaster suddenly falls during the M’s term of service, vast victims die and therefore cause a sharp increase in unemployment, population decrease and collapse of the two business. Or perhaps a global depression appears when M is at his post. Therefore, it is unwarranted to simply confirm the conclusion that M’s capability cannot match Varro’s and Varro should be reelected to replace M.

Secondly, the argument has made a wrong comparison between M and V. Although they are both a mayor of a same city, different time period may indicate a completely different background and situation of the city. So the two different four-years terms are actually not comparable unless other vital factors that may affect the performance of the mayor are examined and ruled out. So, the author in fact put an invalid evidence trying to prove that M should be fired and V should be hired instead.

In conclusion, this argument is not well reasoned by the author. The proofs listed are either not thought over to exclude other possibilities or simply not comparable. To strengthen the argument the author should make further investigation and collect more concrete statistics to make sure no other possible reasons existed can generate the same result. In addition, the author should make sure that the two terms in different time period are comparable to each other.

绝望的小老鼠

12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.

“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

思路：

时间段不够有代表性，

数据不能保证其真实性。

In this argument the author suggests the grocery stores in the Marston area that they should advertise for items on sale, since their sales will increase by this means. In order to support this view, the author then displays a study result conducted last month, in which majority of customers are attracted by ads, and half of them even spend a relatively large amounts to buy items at those stores. However, this argument is not well reasoned due to two vulnerable points.

Firstly, statistics mentioned in the argument are not representative enough to support the perspective that grocery stores can use ads to increase their sales. The time period is not long enough to rule out other special factors that can influence the whole sales. For instance, if there are a national festival during this short time period, or perhaps it’s exactly the time suitable for tourism, if those assumption are true, then clearly, the grocery stores’ sales are fairly possible to surge. Therefore, only one month’s result could not be used to confirm it is ads that help the final sales increase. Secondly, the author cannot simply say advertising is effective due to an oral investigation in only one store, this is unconvincing because researchers cannot ensure the authenticity of those affirmative answers. As we all know, it is possible among people to lie to researchers because of their own reasons. Maybe they just want to show their loyalty to this store, since the research adopts data from only one store, the possibility that it is man-made raise sharply.

In conclusion, this argument is unwarranted and not convincing enough to prove the conclusion that grocery stores can benefit from advertising of those items on sale, as the time period are not representative enough and the concrete data used for research cannot guarantee its authenticity. To strengthen this argument, the author should extend both the time span and pick a relatively larger and more convincing data sources as the basics to further analyses.

绝望的小老鼠

13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses.
“The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
无因果联系
样本不足

In this argument, the author concludes that by using radio advertising, businesses can expect a significant increase in profits within a year. To support this perspective, the author cites an example that a corporation named CC have succeeded in increasing its profits by 10 percent over last years’ sums. In addition, the author emphasizes that this typical case can prove the effectivity of radio advertising. However, this argument is not well reasoned, it has two vulnerable pointed easy to suspect and attack.

To begin with, the author commits a fallacy to correlate two plausible relevant things together, which are in fact not relevant with each other. The line of this reasoning is that because CC corporation began advertising first, and achieved a profit increase later, so advertising caused the final increase in totals. That’s not necessarily true unless other possible factors that can affect the profits have been further investigated and ruled out. Perhaps CC company also capitalized several technological inventions to improve its products’ taste, or perhaps CC company spent some money to rebuild its stores and refresh its products packaging in order to attract new customers and keep the old ones loyal to its brands. Clearly, if these assumptions truly exist, it is on longer convincing to say that radio advertising is the major reason that improves the total profits increase.

Moreover, only one sample cannot be a representative and persuasive proof to confirm the author’s suggestion that radio advertising could be all of the businesses’ choice to surge their profits. CC company belongs to catering industry, however, as we all know, there are many other industry such as fashion industry, mechanism industry having their own systems and trends, which might exactly contrast the situation in catering industry. Therefore, in face of such limited data, the conclusion that advertising on radio would bring about profit increase is totally unwarranted.

In conclusion, this argument is not well established due to unsufficient data and unconvincing causal oversimplification. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should reconsider all the possible assumptions that may propel the business profits earning and evaluate their practicability before identify the real reason. What’s more, more sufficient statistics are adviced to further prove the efficiency of this suggested strategy for profit increase.

绝望的小老鼠

14. The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.

“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

In this argument, the author concludes that all schools should imitate the scheme having been used by N High School to expect a similar decrease in dropout rate and an increase in graduates' achievements in college. To support this conclusion, the author cites N High School as a successful case and contends that other schools can behave the same with additional capitals in computer-relevant facilities. This argument, however, is not well reasoned due to several vulnerable points listed as supports.

Primarily, the author fails to provide sufficient statistics as a persuasive proof to strengthen this investment suggestion. Only one school's success cannot be regarded as a representative example to all schools in this district unless other possibilities which can affect the final educational quality and the dropout rate have been thoroughly invested and ruled out. Perhaps N High School owns some elites as the teachers or perhaps the more rigorous new registers selection than before results from this joyful achievements. Clearly, if these assumptions truly exsit, the author will then have no reason to confirm that bringing in computers are the major cause of the improvement in education.

Moreover, the author oversimplified the causal relationship between adding the computers and the improvement in education quality. The reasoning line in this argument is that because N High School add computers as advanced facilities before the good results concerning dropout rate and better behaviors in graduates when they are in colleges, so it is the adding computer strategy that leads to the final cheerful situation. That's not convincing since merely time sequence of the two things doesn't equal to a real causal relationship.

In addition, even supposing N High School does benefit from this strategy, the feasibility of it in all schools for many years is still unanswered and thus taking actions immediately would venture a lot.

In conclusion, this argument is not completely sound. The evidences in support of the suggestion that other schools in this district can expect similar improvement in students' capability and a decrease in dropout rate are not well established. To strengthen this argument,the author should provide more authentic data as a proof and make further investigation to confrim the real reason causing this significant achievement.

绝望的小老鼠

15. The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor.

“Re-elect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy. Over the past year alone, seventy percent of the state’s workers have had increases in their wages, five thousand new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adams’s opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction, because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams’s economic policies.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

The advertisement for Adams suggests voters to vote Adams instead of another candidate. In support of this view, the author emphasizes the achievement which Adams has made and indicates those joyful increase and changes will maintain as expected as long as voters offer adams an opportunity to serve. Another reason listed to strengthen the perspective is that Adams ' competitor holds a different idea about the economic policies. Since Adams succeeded in the past, therefore, anyone who opposes his schemes cannot be trusted to serve for further economic development. This line of reasoning, however, is quite unwarranted due to the following two reasons.

To begin with, the author wrongly compares the known past with the unknown future. Although the target is the same: economic development, whether the achievement in the past can last forever is a question worth to suspect. The policies used may not be useful anymore unless all critical factors waiting for further investigation in depth and other constructive innovotive better plans  have been thought through and ruled out. Perhapovs Adams' policies fall behind during the next term of service and thus Z is a more rationable choice. In a word, there is no reason to identify the past glory will maintain without reasonable investigation and cautious comparison between the two candidates' ideas.

Moreover, the samples and the data about concrete economic development are not sufficient and representative enough as a proof that the economic in recent years indeed became better than before. Firstly, the time span is too short. Only one single year cannot illustrate a whole policy system is in correct direction and is effective in increasing the state's economy. And there are no relative yealy data as an objective reference to display the relative improvement and changes in certain aspects. Merely percentage points or concrete numbers cannot account for anything, leave alone the general discription,"had
increase in wages", as no one can ensure the real living level of those people is enhanced.

In conclusion, this argument is not completely sound. The author fails to exhibit a reletively longer and more objective statistics about econmic development under Adams administration and oversimplifies the causal relationship between the achievement in the past and the trend in the future. To strengthen this reasoning line, more authentic data should be submitted and that Adams can lead a better economic future should be further proved and explained.

EvaSkySK

好帖，要顶！

hemodata

绝望的小老鼠 发表于 2013-8-2 23:22
15. The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as gov ...

Although the target is the same: economic development, whether the achievement in the past can last forever is a question worth to suspect.
分号导致其后的内容独立成一句，和你的原意应该不一致
worth doing/ worth+noun，而不是跟to do

other constructive innovotive better plans
这一句是不是有单词写错了，看不明白呢

另外，Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that也是一个比较大的问题，就是通常说的vague survey，可以作为一个点单独说，或者加到第二点里面去提一下


整体来说觉得写得很厉害呀！

Cadycui

请继续更新，很有帮助