这道逻辑题谁做的对？来试试

jackabigail

Analyst: The pace of technological development brings a constant stream of new devices to the market, and many of them enjoy commercial success. But announcing new technology too soon after the introduction of a successful device can backfire. Once consumers hear about the new device, they may stop buying the one currently on sale. So, if a company wishes to announce the upcoming sale of a new device, it should wait until purchases of the old device have begun to decline.

Which of the following, if true, would best support the analyst's main assertion?

		New technology often becomes less expensive after an initial surge in sales.
		Media outlets, such as television programs and magazines, often report on the planned introduction of new devices while the sales of old devices are still strong.
		Many consumers are unable to determine whether new technology is superior to current technology.
		Surveys have shown that some consumers make only one or two technology purchases per year, whereas others make more frequent purchases.
		Consumers tend to be loyal to technology companies whose products they enjoy using.

pisco

是A 吗？

jackabigail

pisco 发表于 2013-7-16 10:55
是A 吗？

答案竟然是B，我反正是无语了。。。。曼哈顿的模考里的

pisco

jackabigail 发表于 2013-7-16 11:51
答案竟然是B，我反正是无语了。。。。曼哈顿的模考里的

有解释吗？都 sales are still strong 还怎么 support 啊？

jackabigail

pisco 发表于 2013-7-16 12:01
有解释吗？都 sales are still strong 还怎么 support 啊？

解释是：(B) CORRECT.  This choice states that media outlets such as television and magazines often report on the planned introduction of new devices while sales of old devices are still strong. The argument requires that consumers "hear about the new device"; stories in the media provide a means for consumers to do so.

supremacy11

我來試試看解答好了～
題目說
只要消費者聽到有新機器要上，他們就會停止買舊機器
那麼，如果公司要發表新機器，應該要等舊機器的銷售量開始下滑。

這樣想吧，
如果消費者聽到iPhone 8要上市，就不買現在的iPhone 7，
如果蘋果要發表i8的話，應該要等到i7銷量下滑。

(B)選項的意思是
新聞媒體會在iPhone7 還賣得很好的時候發布iPhone 8的消息

因為新聞媒體的發佈，所以大家都知道iPhone 8，所以就不買iPhone 7了。
加強結論說「那麼，如果公司要發表新機器，應該要等舊機器的銷售量開始下滑。」

大家看看唄

skipp

supremacy11 发表于 2017-8-15 22:23
我來試試看解答好了～
題目說
只要消費者聽到有新機器要上，他們就會停止買舊機器

还是不懂。。。
conclusion是：公司应该在旧产品销量下降的时候发布新产品

B选项：媒体会在旧产品卖的很好的时候，发布新产品的消息
这样旧产品的销量就会就下降。。。这证明的只是一个条件，就是旧产品的销量会下降，但这道题不是应该证明，公司为什么要在旧产品销量下降的时候发布新产品吗？（可能是因为想让旧产品销量最大化）

RichardVeritas

我会选B

Once consumers hear about the new device
和
announcing new technology

之间还是有个gap的。B说媒体会报道新产品/技术，while the sales of old devices are still strong，这会帮助consumers了解到新产品。这样会支持analyst的论点。

除B以外，只有E看上去需要考虑一下。如果题干谈到竞争对手可能更早推出新产品等，就可能有关。
对比之下，我还是会选B. 紧扣提干中谈到的事物逻辑。

supremacy11

skipp 发表于 2017-10-15 21:40
还是不懂。。。
conclusion是：公司应该在旧产品销量下降的时候发布新产品

你看看國外論壇的解釋～

Guys,

The key to answering this question correctly is to focus on 2 key areas of the argument.

The pace of technological development brings a constant stream of new devices to the market, and many of them enjoy commercial success. But announcing new technology too soon after the introduction of a successful device can backfire. Once consumers hear about the new device, they may stop buying the one currently on sale. So, if a company wishes to announce the upcoming sale of a new device, it should wait until purchases of the old device have begun to decline.

There are a couple of things that you need to take away from the argument:

1. The argument is about device sales - re-enforced by the statement "they may stop buying the one currently on sale". The argument is not about a product line. In other words, if a iphone 5 is announced too soon after iphone4S, the sales of iphone4S - a particular iteration of the product line will go down.

2. Why would these sales go down? If consumers hear about the announcement (notice the use of word "once") they "may" decide to wait for the next iteration.

What would strengthen the argument?

There are two things that could strengthen the argument:

1. Evidence that it is likely that consumers will hear about new product announcements once they are made [choice B does exactly that]
2. Evidence that once consumers hear about new product announcements, a good proportion of them push of purchases [none of the choices do that]

What about choice D?

Choice D is kind of irrelevant. Even if I buy phones multiple times a year, I might not buy 4S if I know iphone 5 is coming.

Let me know if this helps.

-Rajat       

RichardVeritas

supremacy11 发表于 2017-10-16 19:31
你看看國外論壇的解釋～

Guys,

1. Evidence that it is likely that consumers will hear about new product announcements once they are made [choice B does exactly that]

这个和我上面8楼回复的好像一样？