LSAT－17－3－5

swimmingfrog

5.     To the editor:

In 1960, an astronomer proposed a mathematical model for determining whether extraterrestrial life exists. It was based on the assumptions that life as we know it could exist only on a planet and that many stars are, like our Sun, orbited by planets, On the basis that there are nine planets in our solar system and one of them has life as we know it, the astronomer predicted that there are as many as one million extraterrestrial civilizations across all solar systems. Yet astronomers to date have not detected even one planet outside our solar system. This indicates that the astronomer’s model is wrong, and life as we know it exists only on the plant Earth.

Clay Moltz

Which one of the following, if accepted by Clay Moltz, would require him to reconsider his conclusion?

(A) Forms of life other than life as we know it exist on other planets.

(B) There are many stars that are not orbited by planets.

(C) Detecting planets outside our solar system requires more sophisticated instruments than are currently available.

(D) The soundness of the conclusion reached by applying a mathematical model depends on the soundness of the assumptions on which the model is based.（C）

(E) Due to sheer distances and expanses of space involved, any extraterrestrial civilization would have great difficulty communicating with ours.

C ，说需要比现在更复杂的仪器。 可文章中那句话暗示现在的仪器就不复杂，不先进了呢？

Why not D？. astronomer proposed mathematical model 用的assumptions that life could exist only on a planet and that many stars are orbited by planets.  好像很有问题嘛. only 很绝对化啊，所以我觉得如果这个人认识到assumption 有问题，就可以reconsider 了。

why not D?

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-12-22 1:08:07编辑过]

hedonism555

D = nonsense  it says nothing to build the strength of assumption or to deny the opponent.

in this speaking, planet is the necessary condtion for life. to weaken it, you just need to deny the exsitance of planet. to support it, you just have to find one possibility to allow it exist.  just as C said,  our current means may not be sophesticated enough for us to detect them.

chelseayang

Another reason for not choosing D: D is simply a principle. For D to make Clay to reconsider his conclusion, it must also be added that "the assumption of the model is a mistake". D itself is not enough to question Clay's conclusion.

"" C ，说需要比现在更复杂的仪器。 可文章中那句话暗示现在的仪器就不复杂，不先进了呢？""---------c says "the more sophisticiated than currently available". whether the current availabe is sophisticated or not , or how sophisticated it is, does not matter.

Bensontuo

swimmingfrog 发表于 2004-12-22 00:59
5.     To the editor:In 1960, an astronomer proposed a mathematical model for de ...

Wether extraterrestrial life exists ---> model ---> assumption that we know life could exist ---> on a planet which orbit the stars ---> 9 planets in your solar system and one of them has life as we know it.

Prediction: there are as many as one million extraterrestrial civilizations across all solar system

No detect even one plant outside the solar system ---> model is wrong ---> life is only on earth.

( Life is not only on earth ---> Model is right ---> detect at least one plant outside the solar system )

So, think in this way, if C is also true and accepted by CM, then we know that it is ' possible " to detect planets outside our solar system by more sophisticated instruments than are currently available, and if it is true, then it also could be true but not must be true that Model could be right.

Remember, Question asked us to reconsider the conclusion but not refuting the whole argument.

Bensontuo

swimmingfrog 发表于 2004-12-22 00:59
5.     To the editor:In 1960, an astronomer proposed a mathematical model for de ...

In terms of option D

1. Who to say it is not soundness enough and who is to say the exact definition of " soundness " ?

2. Assumption is a precondition to support what an argument seeks to establish, in that sense, how could you tell a differences between soundness and less soundness ? Are there any differences between " better true " and " less better true " even " worst true " ? They are all true, ain't it ?