【每日阅读训练第四期——速度越障18系列】【18-08】经管

杀G给猴看

Glad to see you guys again~~：）
今天速度的3篇文章多多少少都和天朝有些关系~&配图会对TOPIC有一点暗示。其中TIME 1 到 TIME 3是一篇，个人认为文章整体的结构比较清晰，可以一起写总结，当然也可以分别回忆具体内容再整合结构；TIME 5是受这两天中国大妈的启发找的，不过因为前半部分叙述比较多（个人觉得这些内容属于“娱乐为主”==），所以计时的部分从中后部开始，时间不大充裕的筒子们可以直接忽略非计时部分，不怎么会影响计时部分的理解哈~~
Now let's get started!  XD

【PART I: SPEED】

Article 1: The Real Reason to Worry About China
By Michael Schuman April 28, 2013
(Check the title later)

【TIME 1】
    The world is worried about China, but not for the right reasons. Global financial markets were roiled after the world’s second largest economy notched only a 7.7% boost to GDP in the first quarter — a drool-worthy performance for most nations, but a disappointment for a country that routinely jumped 10% or more over the past three decades. Economists are busily debating the usual: Will China have a hard or soft landing? Will the government step in and stimulate growth? Those questions miss the bigger picture. The reality is that China is unlikely to witness those astronomical growth rates, at least for some time. We may never see them again.
    The recent slowdown is not a temporary cyclical blip or solely the knockoff effect of the tepid global recovery. China’s growth model is broken and can’t be so easily fixed. Since the start of capitalist reforms in the 1980s, China excelled by throwing tons of resources into a modernizing economy — mountains of cash to build factories, roads and apartment towers, and millions of poor people into making iPads, blue jeans and cars. Under China’s “state capitalism,” bureaucrats often directed the cash into massive infrastructure projects or favored industries. However, this growth engine can’t keep purring indefinitely. The pools of idle labor that filled Foxconn’s assembly lines are drying up — China’s one-child policy made sure of that, by aging the population more rapidly. The workforce has already started to shrink. Even more worrying, the state-led, investment-obsessed system spawns too much debt and too many factories, leading to wasted resources and a debased financial sector.
【TIME 1 ENDS – 262 words】

【TIME 2】
    That’s what is happening in China today. Everywhere you look, the signs of rot are apparent. In a mad-cap quest to dominate green energy, China’s banks pumped billions into solar-panel manufacturing, creating hundreds of factories and vaulting China into the world’s largest producer. Now the sector has become a victim of its own excess: companies are failing, symbolized by the recent bankruptcy of market leader Suntech Power. Steel companies continue to invest in new capacity even though debt is rising and losses mounting. Each mill is backed by local officials eager to create jobs but dismissive of the larger costs. The investments top up GDP, but not the health of the overall economy. Inefficient, subsidized state-owned enterprises gobble up credit while more nimble private firms starve. The froth on China’s booming property market defies government efforts to calm it down. Facing meager investment options in China’s controlled financial markets, couples are choosing divorce to sidestep restrictions and taxes on apartments deals. Most frightening, debt has risen precipitously. Rating agency Fitch says credit relative to GDP reached 198% at the end of 2012, a startling increase from 125% in 2008. Local government debt has escalated in recent years, to an estimated $2 trillion, or 25% of GDP. The risks have been heightened by the emergence of “shadow banking” — mysterious, unconventional sources of lending often kept off the banks’ balance sheets — which George Soros recently warned could be as risky as the toxic subprime-mortgage securities that tanked Wall Street.
    Where is this all headed? “Panda huggers” (the optimists) believe that China’s leadership is tackling these problems and there is no threat to economic stability. “Dragon slayers” (the pessimists) warn that similar surges of debt have toppled other economies into financial crises. Everyone, however, agrees the current situation can’t last. The economy requires more and more debt to produce the same amount of output. In order for China to keep its current growth model running, therefore, debt levels must continue to rise — to ever more dangerous levels.
【TIME 2 ENDS – 334 words】

【TIME 3】
    There is also consensus on the solution. Economists have been warning for years that China must decrease its dependence on investment for growth and “rebalance” to allow consumption to play a bigger role. Government officials point out signs of progress — first-quarter GDP was driven upward more by consumption than investment, for instance. But progress is, at best, at a crawl. Private consumption relative to GDP in China is still the lowest among major economies. The government has simply balked at the reforms necessary to change that. Feeble health care and pension systems force households to save; then controls on interest rates keep returns on bank deposits meager, punishing them for saving. If anything, much government policy has reinforced China’s old growth model — including the heralded state-heavy stimulus program launched after the 2008 financial crisis. Businessmen in China speak of a “lost decade” of stalled reform.
    Even if China reforms more quickly, the economy is likely to slow as it transitions to more consumption-heavy growth. But if China drags its feet on reform, growth will likely be slower anyway, as its old model sputters and creaks. That means that under just about every scenario, the world can’t count on a supercharged China to hold up global growth while the U.S. and Europe remain mired in debt and joblessness. But a slower China may actually be a good thing. A reformed, rebalanced Chinese economy will be a less risky, more stable force in the global economy. The much bigger risk comes from a China that doesn’t discard its failing growth model. That could push China into a financial crisis. Now that’s really something to worry about.
【TIME 3 ENDS – 274 words】
Source: TIME  
http://business.time.com/2013/04/28/the-real-reason-to-worry-about-china/#ixzz2S6MlxheI

Article 2: A Tale of Two Search Engines: Why Google Is Winning, Baidu Isn't
(Check the title later)

【TIME 4】
   When it comes to Internet search in China, no company is even remotely as big as Baidu Inc., which processes more than 80 percent of the country's online queries, according to Bloomberg Industries. It's a mirror image of Google Inc.'s ascendant position atop the U.S. search market.
    Yet the companies couldn't be on more different paths. Baidu's stock has dropped more than 40 percent the past two years. The Beijing-based company faces a slowdown in advertising in its home market and struggles to expand beyond search.
Meanwhile, Mountain View, California-based Google is trading at all-time highs, fueled by increased spending on mobile and video ads -- businesses Google shrewdly got into years ago with the acquisition of Android in 2005 (about two years before the iPhone debuted) and YouTube in 2006.
    The vast majority of Google's revenue still comes from Internet search advertising --- $43.7 billion out of a total of $50.2 billion last year, according to Bloomberg data. As does Baidu's -- 99.7 percent of its 22.3 billion yuan ($3.5 billion) in revenue last year came from online marketing services.
    One key difference, though, is that Google predicted the mobile future and bet big on it -- Android is now the most widely used smartphone operating software in the world, while Baidu's dependence on desktop search has exposed its Achilles heel, as shipments of personal computers are falling sharply and more people are accessing the Internet through smartphones and tablets. Baidu did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
    Baidu shares are trading at more than 50 percent below their average valuation over the past five years, as my Bloomberg News colleague Ye Zie reported. Tim Keefe, a managing director with BlackRock Inc., said Monday in a radio interview on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with Tom Keene that Google is benefiting from rising revenue at YouTube and that he expects shares to outperform Apple Inc., which is facing increased competition from Samsung Electronics Co.
    Baidu's challenges illustrate two important points about competing in an increasingly global technology market. The first is that being too geographically focused can really hurt. More than 99 percent of Baidu's revenue comes from China, according to Bloomberg data, making it especially vulnerable to regional swings in ad spending, even in the most-populous and most-Internet-connected country on the planet. Less than half of Google's revenue comes from the U.S., and sales from other markets are growing. A vast majority of smartphones in China now run on Android as well.
    The second point is that, in technology, it's hard to catch up to missed shifts, and once an opportunity's gone, even for a dominant company with money to spend, it might be gone forever. Just ask BlackBerry.
【TIME 4 ENDS – 450 words】
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/a-tale-of-two-search-engines-why-google-s-winning-and-baidu-isn-t.html

Article 3: China Goes Gold Crazy. Why Now?
Contributor: Gordon G. Chang  4/28/2013
(Check the title later)

    Spurred by a sudden drop in prices, Asians in the last two weeks have gone on a gold-buying binge.  The Indians, the world’s largest net importers of the yellow metal, have been snapping it up of course, and so have the Japanese, now concerned about a falling yen and rising inflation.  Hong Kong residents descended on the stores, but none have been so enthusiastic in stocking up on the commodity as Chinese from the Mainland.
    Mainland Chinese purchasers have been ferocious.  First, they emptied stores in their own country.  Caibai, Beijing’s largest gold merchant, had a queue 30 feet out the door on the morning of the 19th.  “So many people in line,” remarked a customer in Nanjing, where one person splashed out 2.9 million yuan on ten gold bars each weighing a kilogram.  Retailers ran out of stock in Guangzhou.  The China Gold Association reported that on the 15th and 16thretail sales of gold tripled across China.  Daily sales soared to five times the usual level at one retail chain.
    Volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, considered a proxy for the metal’s demand in China, surged, setting consecutive records of 30.4 metric tons on the 19th and 43.3 tons on the 22nd.  The previous record was 22.0 tons on February 18 of this year.
    As Chinese emptied the shelves in their own country, they also went south and swarmed shops in Hong Kong, sometimes in groups.  Chow Tai Fook, the world’s largest jeweler by market capitalization, said some stores popular with Mainland Chinese ran out of gold bars and that demand had not been as strong since the late 1980s.
    Demand for “9999” bullion—99.99% pure gold—was five times normal according to Haywood Cheung Tak-hay, president of the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society.  His organization effectively ran out of holdings as members tried to meet supply shortfalls.  “In terms of volume, I haven’t seen this gold rush for over 20 years,” Cheung told the Financial Times.  “Older members who have been in the business for 50 years haven’t seen such a thing.”
(345 words)


【TIME 5】
    What’s behind the unprecedented surge in buying? Obviously, the Chinese took advantage of a dip in prices—the deepest since 1983—but they kept on buying as the commodity clawed back some of its losses.  
    Unlike the Japanese, they cannot be worried about a plunging currency.  Nor can the Chinese be troubled by climbing prices.  For one thing, the consumer price index has been signaling lower Chinese inflation in the months ahead.  In March, the CPI increased just 2.1% from a year earlier, compared to a 3.2% rise in February.  Of special importance were food prices, up 2.7% last month versus a 6.0% spurt the month before.  In Q1, prices increased just 2.4%, about the same rate as the previous quarter.
    Although Beijing’s CPI undoubtedly understates inflation, it nonetheless shows a general weakening of price pressure, something mirrored in the continually falling producer price index.  Because China is still a manufacturing-based economy, the fall in the PPI means the country is actually suffering deflation.  Producer prices fell 1.6% in both January and February and 1.9% in March.
    A tumbling PPI is due in part to weakening commodity prices, but global prices are falling largely because of the stumbling Chinese economy.  And that brings us full circle because gold prices plunged on the 15th in part because China’s National Bureau of Statistics had reported that Q1 GDP growth came in at 7.7%, well below consensus estimates of 8.0%.  
Moreover, the global sell-down on the 15th—stocks took a beating too—would have been worse had analysts focused on Chinese electricity statistics, manufacturing indexes, and corporate results, all pointing to an economy growing not at 7.7% but in the low single digits.
    It’s probably not a coincidence that the Chinese were the biggest buyers of gold in the last two weeks and, aside from North Korea, China has the most fragile economy in East Asia at the moment.  The concern about the economy is evident throughout Chinese society.
    Especially at the top.  On Thursday, Chinese state media reported that the Politburo Standing Committee convened a special meeting to consider the economy.  Normally, the body takes up economic matters only at fixed times, the beginning, the middle, and the end of a year.  The last time it met to discuss the economy in an April was in 2004.
    No wonder the Chinese are now stockpiling shiny yellow ingots, coins, and bracelets.
【TIME 5 ENDS – 398 words】
Source: Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/04/28/china-goes-gold-crazy-why-now/

【PART II: OBSTACLE】

Article 4: The debt to pleasure
A Nobel prizewinner argues for an overhaul of the theory of consumer choice
Apr 27th 2013 |From the print edition
(Check the title later)

   “SOVEREIGN in tastes, steely-eyed and point-on in perception of risk, and relentless in maximisation of happiness.” This was Daniel McFadden’s memorable summation, in 2006, of the idea of Everyman held by economists. That this description is unlike any real person was Mr McFadden’s point. The Nobel prizewinning economist at the University of California, Berkeley, wryly termed homo economicus “a rare species”. In his latest paper* he outlines a “new science of pleasure”, in which he argues that economics should draw much more heavily on fields such as psychology, neuroscience and anthropology. He wants economists to accept that evidence from other disciplines does not just explain those bits of behaviour that do not fit the standard models. Rather, what economists consider anomalous is the norm. Homo economicus, not his fallible counterpart, is the oddity.
    To take one example, the “people” in economic models have fixed preferences, which are taken as given. Yet a large body of research from cognitive psychology shows that preferences are in fact rather fluid. People value mundane things much more highly when they think of them as somehow “their own”: they insist on a much higher price for a coffee cup they think of as theirs, for instance, than for an identical one that isn’t. This “endowment effect” means that people hold on to shares well past the point where it makes sense to sell them. Cognitive scientists have also found that people dislike losing something much more than they like gaining the same amount. Such “loss aversion” can explain why people often pick insurance policies with lower deductible charges even when they are more expensive. At the moment of an accident a deductible feels like a loss, whereas all those premium payments are part of the status quo.
    Another area where orthodox economics finds itself at sea is the role of memory and experience in determining choices. Recollection of a painful or pleasurable experience is dominated by how people felt at the peak and the end of the episode. In a 1996 experiment Donald Redelmeier and Daniel Kahneman, two psychologists, showed that deliberately adding a burst of pain at the end of a colonoscopy that was of lower intensity than the peak made patients think back on the experience more favourably. Unlike homo economicus, real people are strongly influenced by such things as the order in which they see options and what happened right before they made a choice. Incorporating these findings into models of consumer behaviour should improve their power to predict everything from which loans people choose to which colleges they apply for.
    Trust is something economists already incorporate into their models. But trust turns out to be not just a function of history and interactions, as dismal scientists tend to think, but also a product of brain chemistry. Pumping people with oxytocin, the so-called “love hormone”, has been found to make them much more generous in games where they have to decide how much of their money to entrust to another person who has no real incentive to return any of it. Sovereign, indeed.
    Much of this may be alien to modern-day economists, but it is in line with the conception that other disciplines have of human decision-making. Psychologists have long known that people’s choices and preferences are influenced by others. Biologists have a much clearer understanding of altruism and kindness, whether to kin or strangers, than economists, who typically emphasise the dogged pursuit of self-interest. This way of thinking would also have been recognisable to their intellectual forefathers. Adam Smith wrote extensively about the central role of altruism and regard for others as motivators of human behaviour. The idea of loss aversion would have made sense to Jeremy Bentham, the founder of utilitarianism: he spoke of increased pleasure and reduced pain as two distinct sources of happiness.
    Mr McFadden believes that economists need to do things differently if they are truly to understand how people make decisions. Manipulating brain activity is one way of delving into where economic choices really come from. Analysing the information people get through social networks would help them understand the role of influence and identity in decision-making.
    Such tools have implications for policy. Plenty of poor people in America are wary of programmes like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) because the idea of getting a handout from the government reinforces a sense of helplessness. Dignity is not something mainstream economics has much truck with. But creating a sense of dignity turns out to be a powerful way of affecting decisions. One study by Crystal Hall, Jiaying Zhao and Eldar Shafir, a trio of psychologists, found that getting poor people in a soup kitchen to recall a time when they felt “successful and proud” made them almost twice as likely to accept leaflets that told them how to get an EITC refund than members of another group who were merely asked about the last meal they had eaten.

A nudge and a think

    Taking the path Mr McFadden urges might also lead economists to reassess some articles of faith. Economists tend to think that more choice is good. Yet people with many options sometimes fail to make any choice at all: think of workers who prefer their employers to put them by “default” into pension plans at preset contribution rates. Explicitly modelling the process of making a choice might prompt economists to take a more ambiguous view of an abundance of choices. It might also make them more sceptical of “revealed preference”, the idea that a person’s valuation of different options can be deduced from his actions. This is undoubtedly messier than standard economics. So is real life.
【941 words】
Source: Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21576645-nobel-prizewinner-argues-overhaul-theory-consumer-choice

---

~队形分割线~

杀G给猴看

【Article 1】

1.        roil  英[rɒɪl] 美  vt. 搅浑；惹怒  vi. 动荡；喧闹  n. 小股汹涌的急流

2.        notch  英[nɒtʃ] 美[nɑtʃ]  n. 刻痕，凹口；等级；峡谷  vt. 赢得；用刻痕计算；在…上刻凹痕

3.        tepid  英['tepɪd] 美['tɛpɪd]  adj. 微温的，温热的；不太热烈的；不热情的

4.        idle  英['aɪd(ə)l] 美['aɪdl]  adj. 闲置的；懒惰的；停顿的  vi. 无所事事；虚度；空转  vt. 虚度；使空转

5.        Foxconn 富士康（不多解释了，大家都懂的……咳咳）

6.        spawn  英[spɔːn] 美[spɔn]  n. 卵；菌丝；产物  vt. 产卵；酿成，造成；大量生产  vi. 产卵；大量生产

7.        debase  英[dɪ'beɪs] 美[dɪ'bes]  vt. 降低；使…贬值；掺杂

8.        vault  英[vɔːlt] 美[vɔlt]  n. 拱顶；撑竿跳；地下室  vi. 跳跃；成穹状弯曲  vt. 做成圆拱形；撑竿跳过

9.        Suntech Power 无锡尚德。原来是光伏（太阳能）产业的头羊，因为债务等问题于去年末今年初进行破产重整。对它的故事感兴趣的筒子们可以百度之~

10.    gobble  英['gɒb(ə)l] 美['ɡɑbl]  vi. 贪食；咯咯叫  vt. 狼吞虎咽

11.    nimble  英['nɪmb(ə)l] 美['nɪmbl]  adj. 敏捷的；聪明的；敏感的

12.    froth  英[frɒθ] 美[frɔθ]  n. 泡沫，泡；口沫  vi. 吐白沫；起泡沫  vt. 使生泡沫

13.    defy  英[dɪ'faɪ] 美['difaɪ]  vt. 藐视；公然反抗；挑衅；使落空  n. 挑战；对抗

14.    meager  英美['migɚ]  adj. 贫乏的；瘦的  n. 兆

15.    precipitously[pri'sipitəsli]  adv. 陡峭地；出乎意料地；陡然地

16.    escalate  英['eskəleɪt] 美['ɛskəlet]  vi. 逐步增强；逐步升高  vt. 使逐步上升

17.    slayer  英['sleiə] 美  n. 凶手；杀人者；屠宰者

18.    topple  英['tɒp(ə)l] 美['tɑpl]  vi. 倾倒；倒塌；摇摇欲坠  vt. 推翻；颠覆；使倒塌

19.    balk  英[bɔːlk; bɔːk] 美[bɔk]  n. 障碍；错误  vt. 阻止；推诿；错过  vi. 犹豫；突然止步不前

20.    feeble  英['fiːb(ə)l] 美['fibl]  adj. 微弱的，无力的；虚弱的；薄弱的

21.    herald  英['her(ə)ld] 美['hɛrəld]  n. 先驱；传令官；报信者  vt. 通报；预示…的来临

22.    stall  英[stɔːl] 美[stɔl]  n. 货摊；畜栏；托辞  vi. 停止，停转；拖延  vt. 拖延；使停转；使陷于泥中

23.    sputter  英['spʌtə] 美['spʌtɚ]  vi. 发劈啪声；唾沫飞溅；结结巴巴地讲  vt. 气急败坏地说；飞溅出；喷出  n. 劈啪声；喷溅声；急切的言语

24.    mire  英[maɪə] 美['maɪɚ]  n. 泥潭；[地理] 泥沼  vi. 陷于泥坑；陷入困境  vt. 使陷于泥坑；使陷入困境

【Article 2 & 3】

1.        ascendant  英[ə'send(ə)nt] 美  n. 优势；运星；支配地位  adj. 上升的；优越的

2.        shrewd  英[ʃruːd] 美[ʃrud]  adj. 精明的；狡猾的；机灵的  n. 精明（的人）；机灵（的人）

3.        Achilles heel  致命要害；薄弱环节

4.        spur  英[spɜː] 美[spɝ]  n. 鼓舞，刺激；马刺；山坡  vi. 骑马疾驰；给予刺激  vt. 激励，鞭策；给…装踢马刺

5.        binge  英[bɪn(d)ʒ] 美[bɪndʒ]  n. 狂欢，狂闹；放纵  vt. 放纵  vi. 狂饮作乐；大吃大喝

6.        ferocious  英[fə'rəʊʃəs] 美[fə'roʃəs]  adj. 残忍的；惊人的

7.        swarm  英[swɔːm] 美[swɔrm]  vi. 挤满；成群浮游；云集  n. 蜂群；一大群  vt. 挤满；爬

8.        spurt [spə:t] vi. 冲刺；喷出；迸发  n. 冲刺；喷射  vt. 喷射；喷出

9.        tumble  英['tʌmb(ə)l] 美['tʌmbl]  vi. 摔倒；倒塌；滚动；打滚；仓惶地行动  vt. 使摔倒；使滚翻；弄乱  n. 跌倒；翻斤斗；跌跤

【Article 4】

1.        relentless  英[rɪ'lentlɪs] 美[rɪ'lɛntləs]  adj. 无情的；残酷的；不间断的

2.        summation  英[sʌ'meɪʃ(ə)n] 美[sʌ'meʃən]  n. 和；[生理] 总和；合计

3.        wryly['raɪli]  adv. 挖苦地；表情冷漠地

4.        homo-economicus 经济人，理性人

5.        anthropology  英[,ænθrə'pɒlədʒɪ] 美['ænθrə'pɑlədʒi]  n. 人类学

6.        anomalous  英[ə'nɒm(ə)ləs] 美[ə'nɑmələs]  adj. 异常的；不规则的；不恰当的

7.        fallible  英['fælɪb(ə)l] 美['fæləbl]  adj. 易犯错误的；不可靠的

8.        mundane  英['mʌndeɪn; mʌn'deɪn] 美[mʌn'den]  adj. 世俗的，平凡的；世界的，宇宙的

9.        endowment effect 禀赋效应

10.    orthodox  英['ɔːθədɒks] 美['ɔrθədɑks]  adj. 正统的；传统的；惯常的  n. 正统的人；正统的事物

11.    at sea 茫然；感觉困惑

12.    colonoscopy  英[,kəʊlə'nɒskəpɪ] 美[,kolənə'skɑpi]  n. 结肠镜检查

13.    dismal  英['dɪzm(ə)l] 美['dɪzməl]  adj. 凄凉的，忧郁的；阴沉的，沉闷的；可怕的  n. 低落的情绪

14.    altruism  英['æltrʊɪz(ə)m] 美['æltruɪzəm]  n. 利他；利他主义

15.    utilitarianism  英[jʊ,tɪlɪ'teərɪənɪz(ə)m] 美['jʊtɪlə'tɛrɪə'nɪzəm]  n. 功利主义；实用主义

16.    delve  英[delv] 美[dɛlv]  vi. 钻研；探究；挖  vt. 钻研；探究；挖  n. 穴；洞

17.    wary  英['weərɪ] 美['wɛri]  adj. 谨慎的；机警的；惟恐的；考虑周到的

LZ个人理解 越障主要是关于行为经济学的（虽然文章几乎没有提到behaviour finance/ economics），文章的一些词汇比如endowment effect, revealed preference等等都是其中一些比较重要/热门的概念。行为金融/经济学是一个相对比较新兴的分支，大家感兴趣的可以稍微查查看~~&跟大家分享一本这方面的入门书，Andrew Shleifer的Inefficient Markets，是一个HKUST finance phd学长推荐给我的，不过惭愧的说LZ至今还没看过TT

kimwang53

忘记自己站过坐了。。

2'18
3'23
2'27
3'54
3'24
3'42
10'52

经济学应该更多地关注其他领域，例如心理学，神经科学和人类学等

support：

1.人们有自己固定的喜好

2.人们的回忆和经历影响选择

3.信任

每个领域都有自己的成就，他们是共通的

economists need to do things differently if they are truly to understand how people make decisions.

creating a sense of dignity turns out to be a powerful way of affecting decisions

but offering too many opotions may also have negative effects

beckybei11

谢谢LZ，辛苦了~
                        

1,2&3

748

Thegrowth rate for Chin in the first quarter is 7.7% which is rather lowcompared with China's previous over 10% growth rate. The authorbelieve that we may never see China's astronomical growth again.

Why?This slow down is not temporary. This slow down shows the broken ofChina previous growth model. The aging of the population lead to theshrink of the workforce. The debts on the factory lead to a wasted ofresources.

Chinais striving to develop the green economy. The previous growth modeltop up the GDP but not the health of the overall economy. The stateowned companies took advantages of the previous growth  model but theprivate companies suffered from that.

Whatthe slow down lead to? Some believe that the leader will tackled downthe slow down. Some believe this slow down will lead to a financialcrisis.

Solution?Rebalance the investment and the growth.

Signof progress: GDP increase because of the consumption not theinvestment.

Issuesneed to take care: Private consumption is low, and house hold savemoney rather than spending.

Thepros and cons of China's slow down: 1. The world cannot count onChina to save the global economy 2. A reformed and rebalanced Chinaeconomy is safer.

318

Thestock of Baidu China's largest search service provider fall 40%. Thereason for this fall is the fall in advertising and the unable toexpand beyond the search.

Thecounterpart of Baidu: Google, US largest search service providerenjoyed a rapid growth. Although most of its revenue is from theadvertise, google also expand the market in Mobile and the videoapps.

Why?1.Google see the bright future of mobile, Baidu cannot.2.Baidu mainly focus on desktop search.The largest market for Baidu is China, and only China. Baidu didn't grasp the development of  technology.

215

WhyChinese surge to buy the gold? 1. take advantageous of the price.2.Tumbling PPI 3. People's concern about the economy as China's economyis rather fragile.

716

Economistsshould pay more attention to other field of study such as psychologyand neuroscience.

Why?1. cognitive researchers found that  people value more on items whichthey assume belong to them. Knowing this can help economics to betterunderstand people's choice. 2 The role of money and determiningchoices are fields economists are studying. Psychologists have foundhow order of items influence people's choice and what people seeprevious will have impacts on people's choice. These findings fromthe psychologists will provide more info to the economists.

Researchersfrom different field have made achievement independently, they justneed to combined all the findings.

Themanipulation of brain will have a impact on the implication ofcertain policy.

huizhuo0309

占座！！！

1- 1'13
the real reason to worry about China is that China is unlikely to witness the astronomical growth rates at least for some years. China growth pattern is destroyed and hard to be fixed.
state capitalism makes China more prosperous than before: give poor people jobs, use money to build factories and infrastructures. but now this pattern leads to slowdown and waste of sources, even can be worse.

2- 1'41
some examples of China economy situation: debts are rising to a dangerous level, resulting from shadow banking which can lead to financial crisis.
the opinions of the optimists and pessimists
we can be sure that the only way to keep current output is to rise debt into a higher and more dangerous level

3- 1'07
a consensus on the solution is that consumption should play a larger role in the economy system and investment should be cut off a little.
but even China switches the economy model, it will still face the slowdown, and this reformed Chinese economy can be stable in the global market.

4- 1'55
in past two years Baidu Inc. revenue dropped 40% while Google's revenues are still high, resulting from online advertising and technology inventions.
Google's success is based on the right expectation of mobile future, while Baidu's failure is on the dependence on the desktops.
there are two challenges that Baidu faces: 1. most of its revenues come from China, and geographical pattern can lead to failure. less than half of Google's revenues come from US and it successfully build its own global market. 2. it's hard to catch up a right chance

5- 1'55
the reasons why Chinese are buying gold now: the price of gold is the lowest since 1983; the rate of inflation is decreasing; the weakening commodity prices; Chinese economy slowdowns

6- 5'18
how people can make choices: they dislike loss and care more about the things that they think they own; the role of memory and experiences and trust also help to make decisions
the theories in other disciplines can explain economic issues. biologists know more about altruism than economists, and altruism really have impacts on real people
these findings have implication on policy

zxppx

谢谢，内容好丰富！
1.1-44
People are worried about China, because the second largest economy reported only 7.7% increase in GDP. Although the figure is amazing for many countries, the past three decades' more than 10 percent increase in China makes the current figure much less attrative. Why could this change happen to China? Because in the past China used a lot of money and resources to build factories and hire many inefficient workers. However, this kind of development cannot last. Now Chinese have to face so many debts and lack of resources.
2.2-36
Because of unwise opening many factories, China now see many unsuccessful factories bankruptcy. In addition, the debt of China is growing and causing a lot of problems. Some people hold the optimistic opinions, while others do not think so. But all people think that the situation will not last for long. Nevertheless, the scale of debt will increase in the future.
3.2-02
How to change the situation? Perhaps China should encourage its people to consume. Compared to the consumption concept in United States, Chinese consumption concept is so different that people are inclined to save money for their children or themselves when they are old. The private consumption is still the lowest in the GDP. What's more, even though China can change this situation, the economy will be slower. But the decreased speed of development may help China watch for the future financial crisis.
4.3-14
Baidu is a very big company in China; however, its development turns actually slow. Compared to Baidu, Google develops better and enjoys growing markets from its expectation that smartphone will play an important role in people's life. There are two points we should take into account. The first is that if you depend closely on one market, such as Baidu totally depends on China, you will become disadvantaged. Google gets fewer than half markets from America. The second is that you should change to another opportunity, once the old one gets outdated.
5.2-56
So many Chinese bought gold last week, when the gold price is the lowest during recent decades. China presently has a low CPI and PPT, showing that the country is suffering deflation. To understand the problems of China, officials decide to make a meeting to disscus such problems, even though the last time is 2004.
6.7-06
At the beginning, the article quotes some sentences describing a person. Then the author refers to an economists, MF. The economists owned Nobel Prize and declared that we should learn more other subjects to use them to make better economic analysis. Firstly, he pointed out that people were more inclined to avoid lose than get something. This situation can explain that why people would like to pay premium costs. Secondly, people are likely to help others, and have different actions toward different people, such as kins or strangers. In the end, many poor people are worried about the income tax, but the economists finds out that when people are given some courage and they feel good, they are more likely to do well than others. To sum up, MF suggests that we should use more psychology to make economic analysis.

晓野的野

过来把座儿占
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:59
2:42
1:46
2:51
2:30

obstacle
7:30

Lynsey玲

03:40
The world is worried about China’s economy,but not for the right reason,so the author presents his opinion on the reason for worries to china----Economic model.
03:15

China is facing a huge debt because of large amount of investment, and it is expected that the debt levels would continue to rise to ever more dangerous levels.
02:50

While some economists disagree with current solution and argue lower dependence on investment for growth,the government points out some positive signs to prove the usefulness of this solution.Then the author talk about the necessity of reform on growth model.

03:22

This article makes a comparison of revenue and strategy between Baidu and Google,and then points out two min reasons for Baidu’s failure.

03:15
There is a hot trend in purchasing gold in China.
02：50
This article presents the reasons why Chinese are purchasing gold crazily.In large part,it can be attributed to the stumbling Chinese economy.

10:47
这篇看了好久，还是没怎么看懂。。。大致的理解是这样的
P1 Citing several studies，the author points out his topic,ie:present a Noble Prize winner’s findings about consumer behaviour.
P2 Talking about people’s preference and their behavior.
P3 Memory and experience can determine people’s choices.
P4 Another factor--trust--can influence people’s investment.
P5 Other conceptions such as altruism can also influence human decision-making.
P6 Brain activity can affect people’s economic decisions,so that M suggests that economists need to do things differently if they are truly to understand how people make decisions.
P7 The author presents an example to prove the application of these tools.

To conclude,this article presents a Nobel prizewinner's findings about several factors that could influence consumers' behaviors and talk about this finding's influence and application.

imfishy

131
210
121
201
124
351

zhaoyingchen

第一天，果真超级慢。。

Article 1
(1) 2:36:0
(2) 2:36:6
(3) 1:45:1
China's rapid GDP growth rate is not a good thing for the longterm development of economy. There are many probelms right now or in the future.
Slowdown the speed and pay more attention help to build a healthier economy.

Article 2
(4) 2:45:0
Baidu faces big chanllenges while Google develops very well all around the world.
2 major factors: the first is the market. 90% of baidu's market is in China while less than 50% market of Google in U.S.
                 The second is teconology. Baidu miss the opportunity of the shifts and it is hard for Baidu to catch up.

Article 3
(5) 2:04:0
China has a fragile economy.The the CPI increases is not balanced with the increases of life quality.

obstacle
(6) 6:35:8
economists should learn more about other fields to help them understand more about the economy.
坚持坚持！