argument 60 真诚求拍

katongwangzhe

请问各位，最后总结段要写么，以前的新东方老师说不写没关系，不过我觉得字数上肯定受损失。
第一段我是准备了一个模板，不过其余的全依靠发挥，所以写起来压力很大而且也比较单一，是不是应该全文都用模板呢？请各位帮忙解答。谢谢～


题目如下：
The following appeared in a letter froma firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern UnitedStates, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as theirmajor fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 dayswith below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that thisweather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many newhomes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil andrecommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major businessoperations is the retail sale of home heating oil.




Based on ungounded assumptions and dubious evidence ,the arguer recommends investment in Consolidated Industries,which major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.To substantiate his recommendation,the aruger points out the evidence that northeasten United States has suffered from extremely cold winter,and the trend is going to last.In addition,the arguer states that the population is growing in this region.Though the argument might seems to be valid and convincing at first glance,the arguer’s reasoning is seriously flawed.

To begin with,the arguer assumes that the residents in northeastern US will use home heating oil as a way for heating in the future.Though the region traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating,it is totally possible that they will change their way of heating in the future.For example,they might use air conditioner for heating since the new method might save a lot of money.
Secondly,even though people in this region will continue to use home heating oil as a way for heating,the arguer assumes without justification that residents in the northeastern US will use the product of Consolidated Industries. There are a lot of companies producing home heating oil that competes with Consolidated Industries,so that people could choose their products instead.Unless more evidence that most residents will rely on CI’s product,I can’t be convinced by the arguer.

Moreover,the arguer makes an unwarranted assumption that the climate prediction is correct.However,there’s no solid evidence that the climate forecasters’ prediction will be correct.It happens to us a lot that the weather forecast gives wrong prediction.For instance,if the weather in northeastern US turn warm in the following years,the demand of heating oil will decline.

Furthermore,though many new homes are being built in the region,it might not suggest that people will purchase those houses.The arguer claims that the population in this region is increasing,so there will be more demand of housing.However, other reasons could lead to the increase in popluation which will not result in the demand of housing.For example, the growing child birth rate could lead to the increase of population.While newborn babies have to live with their parents,no housing demand will be created.

Even though the aruger’s previous assumptions are correct,it doesn’t mean that we should invest in Consolidated Industries.Since we could use the money to invest on other companies,which are more promising.

竹林中人

你可以有自己的模板而不是别人的，如果中间的论述分析没法很深入细致，模板只会害你。结尾可以没有，有也尽量短而有力，但不能完全因为字数而写，不然就是败笔。

竹林中人

你的质疑点攻击的顺序不太好，最好形成逻辑链而不能是毫无章法，而且一定围绕结论写