argument 96 第二篇了~谢谢~

katongwangzhe

真心谢谢各位，等到gre考完了，就来回报社会。。。不过水平实在有限。。。第二篇了 ，写作时间倒是很够，但是字数总是很少，不知道前辈们有什么建议。
而且觉得适应这些instruction还是比较重要的。　

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian， a company that manufactures men's clothing．

　　"Five years ago， at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high－quality wool fabric， we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat． Now that we have a new fabric supplier， we should resume production． Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product， we can expect pent－up consumer demand for our alpaca coats． Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices， we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before．"

　　Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable． Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction


Using the evidences given in the argument,the vice president of Sartorian came to the conclusion that the company should resume the production of alpaca overcoat.Although the argument seems to be convincing at first glance,it’s reasoning is actually seriously flawed.There are several questions that we need to answer before we come to a conclusion.
The first question that we need to answer is that whether the new fabric supplier is reliable or not.Five years ago,we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric,so we stopped the production of our overcoat.If this supplier isn’t reliable,we have no reason to resume our production.
Secondly,whether the coat is popular now is a question that we need to answer.Though the arguer claim that the alpaca overcoat were popular years ago,he provide no evidence that the overcoat is still in fashion now.Also,the arguer metions that none of their competitors offered a comparable product,this might result from the fact that the costumer are no longer interested in this kind of product.So there might be no demand of this alpaca overcoat in the market. If all that stated is true,then resuming the production of alpaca overcoat could only be a failure.
Thirdly,the arguer assumes that the alpaca overcoat would sell at a high price because of the increase in clothing prices.But does the alpaca overcoat share the same trend with other clothes? There might be a possibility that most of the clothes’ price are raising,but the price of overcoats are decreasing.(The reason for this might be the change in weather or environmental problems:people wear less clothes that are made of animal skin.) So, if the price of alpaca overcoats does not raise,we can’t come to the conclusion that the alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever.
Last but not least,the arguer assumes that the alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than five years ago because of the increase in saling price. there are a lot of factors which will affect the total profit.Even though the saling price of alpaca overcoats will raise,we have to consider the cost of the materials that we will use while producing them.What if the price of high-quality wool fabric is too high?What if the salary of the worker is too high?These are all questions that we need to answer before we came to the conclusion. If the increase in cost outweighs the increase in saling price,the alpaca overcoat won’t be as profitable as before.

竹林中人

第一段最好把题目中的依据和结论概括地写出来，而不能说用一个given in the argument
第二段太过简单了些，在组织的时候，先要指出的是题目中的依据，分析出得到结论必须的前提，然后说明这个依据是不能直接或者必然得到结论，需要提供额外的依据或者说是对什么什么问题作出回应。尽量具体些
后面的段落同样是这样的问题，需要加强段内的组织。