速度:52'' 44'' 57'' 58'' 48''
越障:9'38''
An interview with the author of a book on Chinese economy
1.
The interviewee is an expert on Chinese economy, a visiting scholar in Oxford, etc.
She recently published a book on Chinese economy, main purpose of the book:
to explain the dramatic econ growth in China since 1978, specially focus on institutional reform - how it affects different sectors
2. institutional reform
She thinks that formal institutional reform is needed to go forward.
the beginning is informal (a surprise), and then gradually shift to formal (the shift is another surprise)
3. forecast
should adapt more western-rule; should foster institutional capitalism
Q: can the current growth rate sustain?
A:the growth will reach a threshold, because as production continues to expand, there will be more issues regarding IP right protection.
It will take ~ 10y to grow from lower-mid-income country to higher-mid-income country.
4. Comparison with Russia & India
4.1 Russia: the difference lies in the change from state-owned to private businesses. In Russia the change is sudden (at the time when Soviet gov dismantled), whereas in China the change is slow and informal.
4.2 India:
similarity: both >1mi population
distinction: different issues. China: dismantle state-owned businesses. India: improve on human capital (through education etc.), which will need to more industrialization
5. prospect of Chinese econ: optimistic but cautious
optimistic: great potential
cautious: currently there are a lot of restrictions on free market
China is working hard to raise its per capita income to $3,000.
-- by 会员 babybearmm (2012/6/23 5:32:04)